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This Time Is Different
An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
The Liquidation of Government Debt
High public debt often produces the drama of default and restructuring. But debt is also reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers via negative or belowmarket real interest rates. After WWII, capital controls and regulatory restrictions created a captive audience for government debt, limiting tax-base erosion. Financial repression is most successful in liquidating debt when accompanied by inflation. For the advanced economies, real interest rates were negative 1⁄2 of the time during 1945–1980. Average annual interest expense savings for a 12—country sample range from about 1 to 5 percent of GDP for the full 1945–1980 period. We suggest that, once again, financial repression may be part of the toolkit deployed to cope with the most recent surge in public debt in advanced economies.
Sovereign Debt
This book is an attempt to build some structure around the issues of sovereign debt to help guide economists, practitioners, and policymakers through this complicated, but not intractable, subject.
Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy
Banking sector problems have plagued over 130 of the IMF's member countries since 1980. Developing and industrial market economies alike have been affected, as have all the economies in transition. This volume, by Carl-Johan Lindgren, Gillian Garcia, and Matthew I. Saal, discusses the linkages between macroeconomic policy and bank soundness. It takes a global view of the causes and consequences of banking sector problems and discussses how the banking system can be strengthened, nationally and internationally.
The Role of the International Monetary Fund and the Federal Reserve in Stabilizing Europe
"Today's hearing is a part of our ongoing effort to examine and understand what can cause a global economic crisis and threaten our economic well-being. Today, we will look at the sovereign debt crisis in many nations, particularly in Europe. We will explore the root causes and potential solutions to the European debt crisis with particular focus on the policy responses made by the Federal Reserve and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to help stabilize European financial markets."--P. 1.
Regional and Global Capital Flows
The volume of capital flows between industrial and developing countries has grown dramatically in the past decade and has become a major issue in a world that is increasingly "globalized." Here Takatoshi Ito and Anne O. Krueger, two leading experts on this topic, have assembled a group of scholars who address different types of capital flows—bank lending, bonds, direct foreign investment—and the implications they hold for economic performance. With its particular focus on the Asian financial crises, this work presents a new model for policy makers everywhere in thinking about the role of private capital flows.
Assessing Financial Vulnerability
This study reviews the literature on the origins of currency and banking crises. It presents empirical tests on the performance of alternative early-warning indicators for emerging-market economies. The book also identifies crisis-threshold values for early-warning indicators.
