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Responding to Shocks and Maintaining Stability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 42

Responding to Shocks and Maintaining Stability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union

The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), like other monetary unions, faces a number of challenges in dealing with macroeconomic shocks. The region experiences a large number of exogenous shocks: climate-related (e.g., droughts, floods), with a heavy toll on populations and agriculture, but also economic (e.g., terms of trade), with a large impact on key sectors and the cost of living. More generally business cycle synchronization within the WAEMU seems low. Addressing these shocks, while preserving the stability of the union, is therefore a critical issue in the WAEMU.This paper discusses these issues and suggests possible reforms.

A Fiscal Job? An Analysis of Fiscal Policy and the Labor Market
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 27

A Fiscal Job? An Analysis of Fiscal Policy and the Labor Market

This paper examines the impact of fiscal policy on employment through the lenses of Okun’s Law. Looking at the panel of OECD countries over the past three decades, we find that fiscal policy can affect employment beyond the impact it is traditionally assumed to exert through the output multiplier. In particular, this impact is found to be effective for most items of current discretionary expenditure and for corporate income taxes and social security contributions. Okun’s Law is found to be stable under almost all model specifications, but higher spending on subsidies and lower social security contributions can amplify the impact of the output gap on employment gaps.

Senegal
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 40

Senegal

This enhanced review of Senegal’s financial sector is one of several pilot reviews called for by the Executive Board in May 2012. The purpose of the reviews is to go beyond the traditional surveillance focus on banking system soundness and solvency by analyzing in more depth the interplay between financial development, macroeconomic and financial stability, and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies in low-income countries. Senegal is a member of the West African Economic and Monetary Union; a number of key macroeconomic and financial policies are designed and implemented at the union level. This study focuses on Senegal-specific issues. Another pilot study, to be prepared in the context of the next annual consultation on regional policies in early 2013, will focus on union-wide issues.

Global Monetary Tightening
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 28

Global Monetary Tightening

This paper finds that tightening global financial conditions can worsen emerging economies’ public debt dynamics through an increasing interest rate-growth differential, particularly if coupled with high global risk aversion. Latin America and emerging Europe are the regions most likely to be adversely affected. In addition, historical evidence—analyzed by means of a Poisson count model—suggests that the frequency of sovereign debt crises increases in emerging economies at the early stage of U.S. monetary tightening cycles, at times in which the term spread also rises. The timing may be related to abrupt switches of expectations about the future course of policy in the early stages of tightening cycles.

China's Footprint in Global Commodity Markets
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 26

China's Footprint in Global Commodity Markets

This note assesses empirically the role Chinese activity plays in global commodities markets, showing that the strength of China’s economic activity has a significant bearing on commodity prices, but that the impact differs across commodity markets, with industrial production shocks having a substantial impact on metals and crude oil prices and less so on food prices. The size of the impact on the prices of specific commodities varies with China’s footprint in the market for those commodities; the empirical estimates indicate that, over a one-year horizon, a 1 percent increase in industrial production leads to a 5–7 percent rise in metals and fuel prices. The surprise component in Chinese industrial production announcements has a bearing on commodity prices that is comparable in magnitude to that of industrial production surprises in the United States, and this impact is much larger when global risk aversion is high.

West African Economic and Monetary Union
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 46

West African Economic and Monetary Union

The financial system in the WAEMU remains largely bank-based. The banking sector comprises 106 banks and 13 financial institutions, which together hold more than 90 percent of the financial system’s assets (about 54 percent of GDP at end-2011). Five banks account for 50 percent of banking assets. The ownership structure of the sector is changing fast, with the rapid rise of foreign-owned (pan-African) banks. This contributes to higher competition but also rising heterogeneity in the banking system, with large and profitable cross-country groups competing with often weaker country-based (and sometime government-owned) banks. Nonbank financial institutions are developing quickly, notably insurance companies, but remain overall small. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the banking system.

Changing Climate in Brazil: Key Vulnerabilities and Opportunities
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 32

Changing Climate in Brazil: Key Vulnerabilities and Opportunities

This paper assesses the Brazilian economy's exposure to climate change focusing on two key areas: agriculture and hydropower. While climate vulnerabilities are significant and recent patterns of land-use further amplify climate change risk, Brazil's opportunities for green growth are vast. Given geography and existing infrastructure, notably the very green energy mix, Brazil can boost its economic potential while mitigating a potential tradeoff between energy use, emissions, and growth. Policy options to address key vulnerabilities and leverage opportunities include boosting the Amazon's resilience via fiscal incentives for forest protection, investing in climate smart agriculture and insurance guided by sustainable feebates, continuing the diversification of renewable power generation, and stimulating green growth while greening the financial sector.

Shifting the Beveridge Curve
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 33

Shifting the Beveridge Curve

This paper explores conditions and policies that could affect the matching between labor demand and supply. We identify shifts in the Beveridge curves for 12 OECD countries between 2000Q1 and 2013Q4 using three complementary methodologies and analyze the short-run determinants of these shifts by means of limited-dependent variable models. We find that labor force growth as well as employment protection legislation reduce the likelihood of an outward shift in the Beveridge curve,. Our findings also show that the matching process is more difficult the higher the share of employees with intermediate levels of education in the labor force and when long-term unemployment is more pronounced. Policies which could facilitate labor market matching include active labor market policies, such as incentives for start-up and job sharing programs. Passive labor market policies, such as unemployment benefits, as well as labor taxation render matching signficantly more difficult.

Regulating Wall Street
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 592

Regulating Wall Street

Experts from NYU Stern School of Business analyze new financial regulations and what they mean for the economy The NYU Stern School of Business is one of the top business schools in the world thanks to the leading academics, researchers, and provocative thinkers who call it home. In Regulating Wall Street: The New Architecture of Global Finance, an impressive group of the Stern school’s top authorities on finance combine their expertise in capital markets, risk management, banking, and derivatives to assess the strengths and weaknesses of new regulations in response to the recent global financial crisis. Summarizes key issues that regulatory reform should address Evaluates the key components of regulatory reform Provides analysis of how the reforms will affect financial firms and markets, as well as the real economy The U.S. Congress is on track to complete the most significant changes in financial regulation since the 1930s. Regulating Wall Street: The New Architecture of Global Finance discusses the impact these news laws will have on the U.S. and global financial architecture.

Unemployment
  • Language: en
  • Pages: 678

Unemployment

This broad survey of unemployment will be a major source of reference for both scholars and students.