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Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States
Like other fragile sub-Saharan African countries, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are seeking to harness their natural resource potential in the context of ambitious development strategies. This study investigates options for scaling up public investment and expanding social safety nets in a general equilibrium setting. First, it assesses the macro-fiscal implications of alternative fiscal rules for public investment, and, second, it explicitly accounts for redistribution through direct cash transfers. Results show that a sustainable non-resource deficit target is robust to the high uncertainty of resources output and prices, while delivering growth benefits through higher public investment. The scaling-up magnitudes, however, depend on the size of projected resource revenue and absorptive capacity. Adding a social transfer raises private consumption, suggesting that a fraction of the resource revenue could be used to expand safety nets.
The Determinants of Banks' Liquidity Buffers in Central America
Banks’ liquidity holdings are comfortably above legal or prudential requirements in most Central American countries. While good for financial stability, high systemic liquidity may nonetheless hinder monetary policy transmission and financial markets development. Using a panel of about 100 commercial banks from the region, we find that the demand for precautionary liquidity buffers is associated with measures of bank size, profitability, capitalization, and financial development. Deposit dollarization is also associated with higher liquidity, reinforcing the monetary policy and market development challenges in highly dollarized economies. Improvements in supervision and measures to promote dedollarization, including developing local currency capital markets, would help enhance financial systems’ efficiency and promote intermediation in the region.
What is Driving Women’s Financial Inclusion Across Countries?
Using a broad set of macroeconomic country characteristics to supplement a new and comprehensive micro-level dataset for 140 countries, we identify structural factors, policies, and individual characteristics that are associated with financial inclusion—in general, and for women in particular. We find that structural country characteristics, such as resource-richness and level of development, and policies, such as stronger institutions, and financial development are significantly related to financial inclusion. We find a robust negative relationship between being female and financial inclusion as in previous studies, and our analysis points to legal discrimination, lack of protection from harassment, including at the work place, and more diffuse gender norms as possible explanatory factors.
Kayıtdışı Ekonomi
‘Kayıtdışı Ekonomi’ kitabında dünden bugüne ülkelerin mücadele ettiği önemli bir makroekonomik sorun olan kayıtdışı ekonomi kavramı tüm yönleri ile ele alınmakta ve detaylı şekilde incelenmektedir. Okuyucuya söz konusu kavramı tüm yönleriyle aktarabilmek bakımından kayıtdışı ekonomi kavramının tanımına, özelliklerine, çeşitlerine, ortaya çıkış nedenleri ve yaratmış olduğu etkilere değinilmektedir. Akademik çalışmalara da referans olması hedeflenen kitapta kayıtdışı ekonominin ölçüm yöntemlerine de yer verilir iken, aynı zamanda yasadışı kazanç (karapara) kavramı ile kayıtdışı ekonomi ilişkisine açıklık getirilmektedir. Dünya’da ve Türkiye’de kayıtdışı ekonomi ve uygulanan politikaların da aktarıldığı kitapta, benzer çalışmalardan farklı olarak dijital teknolojiler ve dijitalleşen dünyanın kayıtdışı ekonomi üzerindeki muhtemel etkileri de değerlendirilmektedir. Okuyucuya kısa ve özlü bir aktarım ile bilgi sunulması ve okuyucunun konu hakkındaki mevcut bilgilerinin arttırılması hedeflenmektedir.
Economic Diversification in Developing Countries
This paper examines the significance and impact of broad-based and industrial policies on economic diversification in developing economies, supported by a literature review, case studies, and IMF analyses. Economic diversification entails shifting from traditional sectors, like agriculture and mining, to a variety of high-quality services and sectors. This transition is crucial for adapting to global market fluctuations and promoting sustainable growth and improved living standards. A literature review, including many IMF contributions, reveals a strong correlation between economic diversification and improved macroeconomic performance in developing countries, such as faster economic growth ...
Drivers of Financial Access: the Role of Macroprudential Policies
This study analyzes the drivers of the use of formal vs. informal financial services in emerging and developing countries using the 2017 Global FINDEX data. In particular, we investigate whether individuals’ choice of financial services correlates with macro-financial and macro-structural policies and conditions, in addition to individual and country characteristics. We start our analysis on middle and low-income countries, and then zoom in on sub-Saharan Africa, currently the region that most relies on informal financial services, and which has the largest uptake of mobile banking. We find robust evidence of an association between macroprudential policies and individuals’ choice of financial access after controlling for personal and country-level characteristics. In particular, macroprudential policies aimed at controlling credit supply seem to be associated with greater resort to informal financial services compared with formal, bank-based access. This highlights the importance for central bankers and financial sector regulators to consider the potential spillovers of monetary policy and financial stability measures on financial inclusion.
Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies
After many years of rapid expansion, China’s growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China’s growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China’s slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China’s rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
Sub-Saharan Africa's Integration in the Global Financial Markets
The paper uses a unique database covering 44 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries between 2000 and 2007 to study the determinants of the allocation and composition of flows across countries, as well as channels through which private capital flows could affect growth. In our sample, the degree of financial market development is an important determinant of the distribution of capital flows across countries as opposed to property rights institutions. The fairly consistent positive association between net capital flows and growth for SSA countries contrasts with the more pessimistic results of recent studies, though our data do not allow us to make conclusive inferences about a causality relationship.
Harnessing Resource Wealth for Inclusive Growth in Fragile States
Like other fragile sub-Saharan African countries, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone are seeking to harness their natural resource potential in the context of ambitious development strategies. This study investigates options for scaling up public investment and expanding social safety nets in a general equilibrium setting. First, it assesses the macro-fiscal implications of alternative fiscal rules for public investment, and, second, it explicitly accounts for redistribution through direct cash transfers. Results show that a sustainable non-resource deficit target is robust to the high uncertainty of resources output and prices, while delivering growth benefits through higher public investment. The scaling-up magnitudes, however, depend on the size of projected resource revenue and absorptive capacity. Adding a social transfer raises private consumption, suggesting that a fraction of the resource revenue could be used to expand safety nets.
