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Toward New Horizons
The changing political landscape in the Arab world has created opportunities for economic transformation by tackling long-standing economic issues. Nevertheless, three years after the onset of political transition, implementing necessary economic policies has proven to be challenging. This paper lays out key elements of economic policy reform for Arab countries in transition.
Djibouti
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights Djibouti’s expansion of its transportation and utilities infrastructure to leverage its strategic location as a shipping hub and host to military bases. The authorities’ development strategy, Vision Djibouti 2035, aims to transform the country into a middle-income economy and a logistics and commercial hub for all of eastern Africa. Growth is estimated to have reached 6.5 percent in 2016, driven by major public sector projects: the railroad to Ethiopia, the construction of several new ports, and a water pipeline from Ethiopia. Inflation rose to 3 percent on average in 2016, reflecting increased food and service prices.
Sudan
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic conditions in Sudan have been challenging since the secession of South Sudan in 2011 and the loss of the bulk of oil production and exports. The authorities have implemented partial policy adjustments to help stabilize the economy and reestablish growth, most recently by allowing for greater exchange rate flexibility and reducing fuel subsidies. The current account deficit (cash basis) is expected to decline by 3.25 percentage points to 2.75 percent of GDP in 2017. Data for the first half of 2017 indicate weaker real domestic demand, partly offset by a strengthening contribution from net exports.
Internal Labor Mobility in Central Europe and the Baltic Region
Large regional disparities in labor market indicators exist in Central Europe and the Baltic region. Such disparities appear to be persistent over time indicating, in part, a lack of flexibility in the prevailing adjustment mechanisms. Internal labor mobility is often seen as an important instrument to reduce adjustment costs when other mechanisms fail. Drawing from a variety of data sources and utilizing a common empirical framework and estimation strategy, this study identifies patterns and statistical profiles of geographical mobility. It finds internal migration to be generalily low and highly concentrated among better-educated, young, and single workers. This suggests that migration is more likely to reinforce existing inequalities than to act as an equalizing phenomenon. By way of contrast, commuting flows have grown over time and are more responsive to regional economic differentials. The findings suggest the need for appropriate and country-tailored policy measures designed to increase the responsiveness of labor flows to market conditions.
Macroeconomic Experiences of the Transition Economies in Indochina
This paper examines stabilization policies in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos since the late 1980s. Compared with other transition economies, the Indochinese countries avoided an output collapse and moved quickly to strong GDP growth and low inflation. Each adopted a similar mix of policies centered on flexible exchange rates, high real interest rates, fiscal adjustment through expenditure cuts, and the imposition of hard budget constraints on public enterprises. In none of the countries was an exchange rate anchor considered feasible, and money-based stabilization proved effective, despite evident instability in the demand for money.
IMF Working Paper
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