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Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
Evaluation of the Oil Fiscal Regime in Russia and Proposals for Reform
Oil revenue plays a central role in Russia's economic development. Thus, the recent decline in oil production and investment, and the possible contribution of the current fiscal regime to these developments, have prompted a reassessment of the oil tax system in Russia. Some important changes have already been made, while others are underway. This paper uses a simulation model to evaluate Russia's current oil fiscal regime. Based on these simulations, the paper proposes ways to make the fiscal regime more supportive of investment, while ensuring an appropriate share of oil sector profits for the government.
How Big (Small?) are Fiscal Multipliers?
We contribute to the intense debate on the real effects of fiscal stimuli by showing that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries, (ii) the fisscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rate but zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are lower than in closed economies and (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are also zero.
Strengthening Russia's Fiscal Framework
Though many aspects of Russia's fiscal policy framework are close to best practice on paper, actual practice in recent years has been moving away from best practice. In particular, the continued focus on the overall rather than the nonoil balance, and the regular use of supplemental budgets to spend windfall oil revenues contribute to procylicality of fiscal policy, risking costly boom-bust cycles. Against this background, this paper suggests several improvements to the framework for fiscal policy.
CyberBRICS
This book stems from the CyberBRICS project, which is the first major attempt to produce a comparative analysis of Internet regulations in the BRICS countries – namely, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The project has three main objectives: 1) to map existing regulations; 2) to identify best practices; and 3) to develop policy recommendations in the various areas that compose cybersecurity governance, with a particular focus on the strategies adopted by the BRICS countries to date. Each study covers five essential dimensions of cybersecurity: data protection, consumer protection, cybercrime, the preservation of public order, and cyberdefense. The BRICS countries were selecte...
The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries
This paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat. It begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes, and then explores the weaknesses in this theory, especially when it is applied to emerging market economies. It then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates, and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits. The conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the develop...
Project Finance for the International Petroleum Industry
This overview of project finance for the oil and gas industry covers financial markets, sources and providers of finance, financial structures, and capital raising processes. About US$300 billion of project finance debt is raised annually across several capital intensive sectors—including oil and gas, energy, infrastructure, and mining—and the oil and gas industry represents around 30% of the global project finance market. With over 25 year’s project finance experience in international banking and industry, author Robert Clews explores project finance techniques and their effectiveness in the petroleum industry. He highlights the petroleum industry players, risks, economics, and commer...
Are All the Giants Dead?
Finding himself in a land peopled with fairy tale characters, James attempts to help Princess Dulcibel who is destined to marry a toad after her ball falls into the well.
Capital Inflows and Balance of Payments Pressures
Although capital inflows are generally beneficial to recipient countries, they also pose a challenge for the conduct of economic policy. This paper proposes a conceptual taxonomy to guide the design of policy responses in the face of capital flows. We explore how responses to capital surges should be differentiated based on the source of balance of payments pressures. We also examine whether the policy choices in emerging market countries conform to the taxonomy's predictions and find some correspondence, especially during periods of high global liquidity.
