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Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Spain
This paper examines the factors underlying the stability of inflation observed following devaluations of the Spanish peseta, which took place during the 1992-93 Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis. The long-run equilibrium relationships between the exchange rate and the aggregate price indices are estimated using the Johansen maximum likelihood-method. The short-run dynamics are obtained from error-correction models. The model is then simulated by calibrating changes in the exogenous variables to their actual values. The results indicate that the cost-push-up effect of devaluations may have been completely offset by determinants of the cyclical position of the economy and the low inflation rate in 1993-94 should not be viewed as unusual.
Boosting Job Growth in the Western Balkans
Labor markets in the Western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia) are characterized by some of the highest unemployment and low employment rates in Europe. We analyze the poor labor market outcomes in these countries by comparison with the New Member States of the European Union and advanced European economies. Our findings suggest that long-lasting labor market weaknesses in the Western Balkans have structural roots: the institutional setup of the labor markets, labor cost factors, and especially the unfinished transition process. Finally, we offer policy recommendations for boosting job creation.
Post-Transition Investment Behavior in Poland: A Sectoral Panel Analysis
Analyzing and projecting the behavior of macroeconomic variables in new EU member states presents special challenges, owing to limited time series of the available data. This paper presents an analysis of investment in Poland based on an underexplored sectoral data set. The determinants of investment are found to include lagged investment, lead production, relative unit labor costs, EU demand, corporate profitability, and greenfield FDI (foreign direct investment) inflows. Dynamic in-sample simulations indicate some overinvestment in 1997 compared with what the model would suggest, and a substantial underinvestment during 2000-2004. The model is then used to project future investment: while rapid investment growth is likely, it remains uncertain whether investment as a share of GDP will reach its peak levels on the late 1990s.
Argentina
This paper discusses Argentina’s First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), Inflation Consultation, Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for Rephasing, Augmentation, Waivers of Nonobservance and Applicability of Performance Criteria. All performance criteria and the structural benchmark for end-June were met. The authorities have proactively recognized that restoring stability in Argentina will require a significant reshaping of their policy program and have requested changes in the nature of IMF support under the SBA. The authorities are forcefully strengthening their policy program by eliminating the primary fiscal deficit in 2019 and targeting a primary surplus in 2020. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request to modify the program supported by the SBA.
Review of The Cumulative Access Limits Under The Rapid Financing Instrument and The Rapid Credit Facility
The IMF extended the temporarily higher Cumulative Access Limits under the Fund’s Emergency Financing instruments, the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) under the General Resources Account, and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust. This extension ensures that the Fund can continue to support member countries that accessed Fund’s emergency financing during COVID-19 pandemic in case of renewed emergency situations. The temporarily higher cumulative access limits under the RFI will be maintained until end-June 2024 when most RFI recipients will have repaid a significant part of their past emergency financing. The temporarily higher cumulative access limits under the RCF will be maintained until the completion of the 2024/25 comprehensive review of the Fund’s concessional facilities and financing, given the longer repayment schedule for RCF financing.
Development of Financial Markets in Central Europe
Financial markets in the CE4 countries are still shallow compared to other advanced EU countries. While the government bond markets are comparable in size, measured by capitalization in percent of GDP, the private bond, private credit, and equity markets lag behind. Empirical analysis in this paper helps identify factors that explain this phenomenon. We find that the observed differences cannot be explained by macroeconomic variables only, but incorporating indicators of institutional development and external funding eliminates the gap in the case of the equity and private credit markets. However, for the private bond market a significant gap remains even after accounting for these factors.
Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities in Ireland
The paper uses both macro- and micro-level data to assess how has the financial health of the Irish non-financial corporate (NFC) sector changed in the post financial crisis period. The analysis suggests that vulnerabilities have generally declined in recent years, but the NFC sector and especially smaller domestic firms remain vulnerable. A sensitivity analysis indicates that a non-extreme shock, which comprises a decline in profitability and an increase in interest rates, is likely to push many firms into a vulnerable state and that the share of firms with interest cover ratio of lower than one would triple to nearly fifty percent, largely reflecting the deterioration in the financial health of small firms. In such a scenario, the share of risky debt would increase to the level observed during the financial crisis, resulting in a significant increase in new corporate defaults.
Regional Economic Issues, April 2015, Europe
This report analyses the main economic developments and achievements in the Western Balkan countries, and lays out the key macroeconomic policy challenges for the future.
Late to the game? Capital flows to the Western Balkans
The boom and bust in capital flows to the New Member States of the European Union have received a considerable amount of attention; foreign direct investment and bank flows to the region and countries’ participation in regional supply chains have been well-documented. Relatively little has, however, been written about capital flows to the Western Balkans economies, which are often perceived to be ‘late arrivals’ to large capital flows. This paper aims to examine how capital flows to the Western Balkans compare with flows to the New Member States, in terms of levels as well as dynamics. We find that while financial integration took off somewhat later in the Western Balkans than in the New Member States, it has increased rapidly, despite still much lower capital account openness. Capital inflows as a share of GDP are comparable to those observed in the New Member States, (perhaps surprisingly) diverse in terms of source countries and broadly similar in composition, though with equity shares higher than they were in the New Member States at comparable levels of GDP per capita.
Fiscal Deficit and Public Debt in the Western Balkans
In this paper we analyze how Western Balkans public finances adapted to the boom-bust cycle. Large capital inflows into emerging European economies during the mid-2000s resulted in rapid economic growth and convergence to EU income levels. This also resulted in improved fiscal positions of most countries, on the back of strong revenue performance. Yet, since the onset of the global economic crisis, many countries have struggled to adjust to the new situation of lower external financing and lower growth.
