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The Inflation-Targeting Debate
Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamine...
Turkey at the Crossroads
The key policy challenge for Turkey in the years ahead will be to enhance and consolidate the advances made since the nation’s 2000-01 economic crisis. Higher growth could reduce unemployment and raise living standards toward European Union levels. This paper reviews Turkey’s policy performance in terms of growth, inflation, debt, fiscal and financial sector reform, and labor markets. The analysis assesses the effectiveness of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms since the crisis and provides guideposts for future policy.
External Sector Report, 2020
Produced since 2012, the IMF’s annual External Sector Report analyzes global external developments and provides multilaterally consistent assessments of external positions, including current accounts, real exchange rates, external balance sheets, capital flows, and international reserves, of the world’s largest economies, representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Chapter 1 discusses the evolution of global external positions in 2019, external developments during the COVID-19 crisis, and policy priorities for responding to the crisis and for reducing excess imbalances over the medium term. Chapter 2 analyzes the relationship between the structure of external assets and liabilities—the...
Report on the Pacific Roundtables
The paper looks at feasible concrete action that can be taken by correspondent and respondent banks, money transfer operators, the Pacific authorities, the Australian and New Zealand authorities, and international organizations.
Monetary Policy Strategy
A leading academic authority and policymaker discusses monetary policy strategy from the perspectives of both scholar and practitioner, offering theory, econometric evidence, and extensive case studies. This book by a leading authority on monetary policy offers a unique view of the subject from the perspectives of both scholar and practitioner. Frederic Mishkin is not only an academic expert in the field but also a high-level policymaker. He is especially well positioned to discuss the changes in the conduct of monetary policy in recent years, in particular the turn to inflation targeting. Monetary Policy Strategy describes his work over the last ten years, offering published papers, new int...
Republic of Estonia
This paper presents an update to the Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) for Banking Supervision, Data Module, Fiscal Transparency Module, Insurance Supervision, Payment Systems, Securities Supervision, and Transparency in Monetary and Financial Policies for the Republic of Estonia. Beginning from January 1, 2002, the unified Estonian Financial Supervision Authority is responsible for banking, insurance, and securities market supervision. Relevant provisions to the Credit Institutions Act (Article 84) were extended to managers of shareholders and to companies in which managers hold a qualifying interest.
The Leap of the Tiger
Only a few European economies and Korea and Taiwan Province of China reached high-income status during 1970-2010. Malaysia’s real income per capita increased to 26 percent of the U.S. level in 2010 from 20 percent in 1970. Despite relatively strong growth and a substantial improvement in export sophistication, Malaysia’s total factor productivity lagged behind that of Korea and Taiwan Province of China. We argue that what characterizes their experience in contrast to Malaysia’s is the creation of technologies by domestic firms and a push to leapfrog to the technological frontier at an early stage of development.
Guidance Note for the Fund's Policy on Multiple Currency Practices
This note provides operational guidance to staff on the implementation of the new Fund’s policy on multiple currency practices (MCPs), effective February 1, 2024. The MCP policy is a key element of the Fund’s jurisdiction on exchange rates. The Fund’s Articles of Agreement prohibit member countries from engaging or permitting their fiscal agencies (as defined in the Articles) to engage in MCPs unless authorized under the Articles or approved by the Fund. The comprehensive review of the policy in 2022 aimed to reflect developments in FX policy and FX markets since the last policy review in the 1980s and to align it with other relevant Fund’s policies. Key changes to the policy include...
IMF Support and Crisis Prevention
This paper examines the various roles of IMF financing in crisis prevention. Emerging market economies that experienced financial crises in the past have been subject to enormous economic and social costs, highlighting the importance of crisis prevention. While the main defense against a crisis lies in a country’s own policies and institutional framework, the IMF can contribute to these efforts through its surveillance activities, provision of technical assistance, and promotion of standards and codes. But the IMF may be able to contribute to crisis prevention more directly by providing contingent financial support. This paper explores the theoretical basis of, and empirical evidence for, possible “crisis prevention programs.”
Crypto as a Marketplace for Capital Flight
This paper shows how cryptocurrency markets can fuel cross-border capital flight by serving as marketplaces that match counterparts with and without (illicit) access to FX. In countries where international transactions are restricted, crypto exchanges effectively allow domestic agents to pay a premium to buy foreign currency. The counterparts to these transactions are agents with access to FX, who sell crypto holdings purchased abroad. A stylized model illustrates that restricted foreign currency amid economic imbalances incentivizes these transactions via persistent crypto premia in local relative to global markets. We analyze relative crypto pricing data in several country case studies, providing empirical support that crypto markets serve as marketplaces for capital flight that already took place, rather than a novel channel for capital flight. We make available a novel dataset on crypto market premia, which we propose as indicators of excess demand for foreign currency and capital control intensity. The dataset will be posted along with this paper and updated periodically.
