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Next COP Ahead: Europe Has Work to Do
Abstract: International climate negotiations at the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow were surprisingly productive. The Glasgow Climate Pact adds new tasks to the already full climate agendas of the European Union and its member states. European policy makers will need to focus even more on limiting the long-term temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius and to secure adequate commitments and action by the biggest global greenhouse gas emitters - all before the next COP in Egypt (COP27) at the end of 2022. Climate financing also needs to be secured in a manner that generates trust on the part of the developing countries. Germany's G7 presidency in 2022 will be crucial for accelerating international climate cooperation. The German government must also work to involve the G20 states and push to speed up adoption of the European Union's Fit for 55 package. (author's abstract)
"Negative Emissions": a Challenge for Climate Policy
Abstract: The objective of the Paris Agreement is to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius, and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) believes that these targets cannot be reached through conventional mitigation measures alone. The IPCC assumes that in addition to reducing emissions, technologies for removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere will become indispensable. The preferred technology option combines increased use of bio-energy with the capture and storage of carbon dioxide. To date, climate policy has largely ignored the necessity for "negative emissions" to achieve the temperature targets set out in the Paris Agreement. Discussions on the underlying model assumptions, potentials and risks of imaginable technological options, as well as their political implications, are only just beginning. It would be wise for the EU and Germany to proactively shape this debate and increase funding
After the Paris Agreement: New Challenges for the EU's Leadership in Climate Policy
Abstract: In December 2015, 195 countries adopted a new global climate agreement in Paris. It provides an expanded regulatory framework and specifies the goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). A significant number of states including the U.S. are expected to ratify the Paris Agreement (PA) within the year. Industrialized nations have a strong obligation to keep up the momentum that was generated in Paris. If the European Union (EU) wants to maintain its leadership role, it should focus on two key tasks in 2016. First, it should speed up legislation to implement the climate and energy targets for 2030 adopted by the European Council, a political prerequisite for Member States' ratification of the PA. Second, it should expand and strengthen cooperation with the developing countries. For the immediate future, an increase in EU climate ambitions for 2030 or 2050 is not likely to become part of the political agenda. (author's abstract)
Climate Neutrality as Long-term Strategy
Zusammenfassung: As a traditional frontrunner in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) is under great pressure to meet global expectations. In 2020, it must present its long-term decarbonisation strategy to the United Nations. Political attention has so far focussed on the lack of consensus among the Member States on whether they should adopt the European Commission's proposed goal of "greenhouse gas neutrality" by 2050. Two aspects of this decision have hardly been debated so far - first, the question of whether this will herald the end of differentiated reduction commitments by Member States, and second, the tightening of the EU climate target for 2030. National governments and climate policymakers will have to take both issues into account
The EU and the Paris Climate Agreement: Ambitions, Strategic Goals, and Tactical Approaches
Abstract: In October 2014, the European Union has announced the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to at least 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030. On March 6, 2015, the Council of Environmental Ministers reported this target as the EU's official contribution to the ongoing climate talks under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). At around the same time, the European Commission unveiled a far-reaching and detailed proposal for the design of a new international climate agreement. In the process of adopting a formal EU negotiating mandate, the EU Member States will have to decide whether to support the Commission's proposals. Their considerations will need to bring internal European interests in the area of climate policy and France's role as host to the Paris UNFCCC Conference in December 2015 into harmony with the overall EU climate policy ambitions. (Autorenreferat)
Benefits and Pitfalls of an EU Emissions Budget Approach
Following the conclusion of the 'Fit for 55' package, European Union (EU) climate policy will enter its next phase. One of the most important decisions will be how to set the economy-wide emissions reduction target for 2040, which will form the starting point for the next round of revisions of all EU climate policy legislation. The European Climate Law stipulates that the European Commission shall propose a 2040 target that is based, among other things, on a "projected indicative Union greenhouse gas budget for the 2030-2050 period", informed by a report of the newly established European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change. While cumulating emissions resulting from different future trajectories can help to assess ambition levels, strictly deriving a 'science-based' EU emissions budget from the global carbon budget has several pitfalls. The debate on the design of EU climate policy after 2030 should not put too much focus on the 'appropriate' target for 2040 but on how to further develop the governance architecture, strengthen policy instruments, and bolster public support.
Ensuring the Quality of Scientific Climate Policy Advice: in an Increasingly Pragmatic Policy Environment, Advisors Should Take a Step Away from Politics
Abstract: "The UN climate summit in Paris will bring about a new bottom-up type of agreement based on voluntary emissions reduction pledges by individual states. This marks the end of the top-down policy paradigm dominant for more than two decades. Scientific advisors should use the paradigm shift manifesting itself in UN negotiations as an opportunity to critically reassess their role in international climate policy. In the future, it will become even more difficult to present findings that are both politically viable and scientifically sound. In situations where these standards conflict, advisors and advisory bodies must resist both political pressures and incentives that undermine scientific integrity." (author's abstract)
The Future of (negative) Emissions Trading in the European Union
Under the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS), operators must surrender allowances corresponding to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) from their installations. The supply of allowances in the EU ETS decreases linearly and, all else equal, is expected to end around 2057. An earlier cut-off date is likely to follow from the European Council's recent decision that the EU should reach net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Scenarios published by the European Commission even anticipate a net-negative cap in the EU ETS from 2045 onwards, generated through carbon dioxide (CO2) removals. Upholding emissions trading, in the long run, therefore entails significant use of credits resulting ...
