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Avoid a Fall Or Fly Again: Turning Points of State Fragility
High persistence of state fragility (a fragility trap) suggests the presence of substantial benefits from avoiding a fall into fragility and considerable hurdles to successful exit from fragility. This paper empirically examines the factors that affect the turning points of entering and exiting from state fragility by employing three different approaches: an event study, the synthetic control method, and a logit model. We find that avoiding economic contraction is critical to prevent a country on the brink of fragility from falling into fragility (e.g., among near fragile countries, the probability of entering fragility would rise by 40 percentage points should real GDP per capita growth dec...
State Institutions and Tax Capacity: An Empirical Investigation of Causality
Would better state institutions increase tax collection, or would higher tax collection help improve state institutions? In the absence of conclusive guidance from theory, this paper searches for an empirical answer to this question, using a panel dataset covering 110 non-resource-rich countries from 1996 to 2017. Employing a panel vector error correction model, the paper finds that tax capacity and state institutions cause and reinforce each other for a wide range of country groups. The bi-directional causality results suggest that developing tax capacity and building state institutions need to go hand in hand for best results, particularly in developing countries. Based on the impulse response analyses, the paper also finds that the causal effects in advanced economies are generally low in both directions, while in developing countries, both tax capacity and institutions shocks have larger positive impacts on institutions and tax capacity, respectively.
Calibrating Fiscal Rules
This technical note assesses how large shocks from natural disasters are key source of vulnerabilities for public finances. It extends the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department calibration toolkit by developing a methodology to calibrate fiscal rules in the event of natural disaster shocks and the possibility of implementing climate adaptation and mitigation measures. The features incorporated in this technical note would allow the calibration of a prudent medium-term fiscal anchor as well as annual budgetary limits that ensure the sustainability of public finances. The note is accompanied by a set of toolkits that provides instructions on calibrating a medium-term debt anchor and corresponding operational rules in the presence of natural disaster risks, accounting for climate investment and other mitigation mechanisms.
The Bahamas: Selected Issues
The Bahamas: Selected Issues
Upgrading Fiscal Frameworks in Asia-Pacific
This paper seeks to guide the reform of fiscal frameworks in Asia-Pacific in the context of calls for a more active fiscal policy in a shock-prone world. It highlights that the cost of fiscal support is large and that fiscal frameworks, including fiscal rules, are being put to the test given the sharp increase in debt, high interest and weaker growth prospects. The stress is only compounded by long-term challenges like aging populations, climate change and the need to deliver on the sustainable development goals. In this context, it is timely to review the effectiveness of fiscal policy in Asia-Pacific and seek for ways to strengthen fiscal frameworks. After the global financial crisis, fisc...
Opportunity for All
This publication brings together a set of IMF papers that prepared as backgrounds for the various sessions of the conference and will help put into broader dissemination channels the results of this important conference. An official IMF publication is well disseminated into academic and institutional libraries and book channels. The IMF metadata will also make the conference papers more discoverable online.
Looking Back
In this autobiography, Looking Back: The History of an Oke Padi Resident, Professor Laditan travels back in time to tell the story of his life, that spans over eight decades. It is the story of his birth, early childhood, education, marriage, and career. The book deals with his polygamous upbringing and describes how he spent early childhood with his mother and grandmother in Ibadan. His life journey took him through varied experiences as he later lived in Ilaro with his paternal grandparents, both of whom were non-literate. He was fourteen-years-old when he started to live with his father and stepmother in Lagos. He attended Igbobi College in Lagos for his school certificate and higher scho...
Do Sovereign Wealth Funds Reduce Fiscal Policy Pro-cyclicality? New Evidence Using a Non-Parametric Approach
The heightened volatility of commodity prices in recent years, reflecting the effects of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, begs the longstanding question of the optimal fiscal policy response to commodity price shocks. Fiscal performance in most commodity-exporting countries is typically shaped by shifts in commodity prices and economic activity, often resulting in procyclical fiscal policy. One way to minimize the procyclicality of fiscal policy is to set up a stabilization Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF). While such funds can help smooth government consumption in good and bad times, the empirical evidence of their value so far has been inconclusive. However, using an unbalanced panel dataset for 182 countries during 1980-2019, with two econometric methods that address the selection-bias problem, we provide robust evidence that stabilization SWFs do indeed help smooth government consumption by reducing fiscal policy volatility associated with commodity price fluctuations.
State Institutions and Tax Capacity: An Empirical Investigation of Causality
Would better state institutions increase tax collection, or would higher tax collection help improve state institutions? In the absence of conclusive guidance from theory, this paper searches for an empirical answer to this question, using a panel dataset covering 110 non-resource-rich countries from 1996 to 2017. Employing a panel vector error correction model, the paper finds that tax capacity and state institutions cause and reinforce each other for a wide range of country groups. The bi-directional causality results suggest that developing tax capacity and building state institutions need to go hand in hand for best results, particularly in developing countries. Based on the impulse response analyses, the paper also finds that the causal effects in advanced economies are generally low in both directions, while in developing countries, both tax capacity and institutions shocks have larger positive impacts on institutions and tax capacity, respectively.
Opportunity for All
This publication brings together a set of IMF papers that prepared as backgrounds for the various sessions of the conference and will help put into broader dissemination channels the results of this important conference. An official IMF publication is well disseminated into academic and institutional libraries and book channels. The IMF metadata will also make the conference papers more discoverable online.
