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The Early Warning Exercise (EWE) draws together a combination of analytical techniques, practical experience, seasoned judgment and unique databases in order to assess the potential consequences associated with economic and financial tail risks. There are several key features of the exercise. First, the exercise aims to help prevent the occurrence of financial crises and to limit their potential damage, not to predict the timing of crises. Second, coverage is fairly comprehensive, including both advanced and emerging economies. Third, the EWE is based on rigorous analysis and cutting-edge techniques, but it uses a holistic approach, drawing also various other tools rather than relying on a single crisis model. Fourth, it combines empirical analysis with forward-looking thinking, based on inputs from key policymakers and academics, in-depth real-world knowledge from practitioners, and seasoned judgment from IMF experts. The primary purpose of the EWE is to identify as early as possible the buildup of underlying vulnerabilities that predispose a system to a crisis, so that corrective policies can be implemented and contingency plans put in place.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
International Economic Law and African Development discusses international perspectives on African law and economic development in the light of broader globalisation imperatives. It is the third in what can loosely be described as a series on Africa and gobalisation by the Mandela Institute, the first two being Globalisation and Governance and International Economic Law - Voices of Africa.
Globalization is triggering a 'revenue shock' in developing economies. International trade taxes - once the primary source of government revenue - have been cut drastically in response to trade liberalization. Bastiaens and Rudra make the novel argument that regime type is a major determinant of revenue-raising capacity once free trade policies have been adopted. Specifically, policymakers in democracies confront greater challenges than their authoritarian counterparts when implementing tax reforms to offset liberalization's revenue shocks. The repercussions are significant: while the poor bear the brunt of this revenue shortfall in democracies, authoritarian regimes are better-off overall. Paradoxically, then, citizens of democracies suffer precisely because their freer political culture constrains governmental ability to tax and redistribute under globalization. This important contribution on the battle between open societies and the ability of governments to help their people prosper under globalization is essential reading for students and scholars of political economy, development studies and comparative politics.
As in many other oil and gas dependent countries, Brunei Darussalam—a country with a small population but the second highest income per capita in Southeast Asia—has been diversifying its economy in three sectors: from oil and gas to other sectors of export/economic growth; from the dominance of public sector employment to a more balanced public and private sectors employment; and from heavy dependence on foreign labours to development of local talents. This book examines the current socio-economic development in the journey toward a diversified social economy, as targeted in Brunei Vision 2035. By examining the unique context of Brunei, this book fills in the gap on studies focusing on s...
This edited volume focuses on the attempts of various Caribbean countries to diversify their economies and societies. It is done in the context of political and economic difficulties that these countries have faced since the 2007-2008 economic crash and how successful they have been in moving their economies in a different direction. The contributors use very distinct levels of analysis in order to provide a nuanced view of diversification efforts in Trinidad and Tobago, Jamaica, Cuba, the French Antilles, and the Dutch Antilles. The book will appeal to academic researchers, practitioners, policy makers, and everyone who is interested in the politics and development of the Caribbean region.
In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
This Selected Issues paper on Saudi Arabia assesses Saudi Arabia’s role in the oil market and global economy. Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of oil, has long played a systemically important role in the global oil market. Short-term fluctuations in Saudi Arabia’s oil production have partially reflected attempts to stabilize the global oil market. Saudi Arabia has on several occasions used its systemic role to raise production to fill global demand gaps created by large supply disturbances. The authorities have made significant investments in higher education to enable productive private-sector employment for new Saudi labor force entrants.
"The cohesion of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)--defined here as the ability of the six GCC member states to act together or in parallel--has significant consequences for regional stability and U.S. interests. This report examines factors that bind and divide the six GCC states--Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates--and presents the outlook for the GCC's evolution over the next ten years. Addressing the political, economic, and security dimensions of GCC relationships, the study provides a framework for understanding intra-GCC dynamics, an expectation of future developments, and policy recommendations for enhancing stability and U.S. regional interests"--Publisher's description.
Despite significant strides in financial development over the past decades, financial dollarization, as reflected in elevated shares of foreign currency deposits and credit in the banking system, remains common in developing economies. We study the impact of financial dollarization, differentiating across foreign currency deposits and credit on financial depth, access and efficiency for a large sample of emerging market and developing countries over the past two decades. Panel regressions estimated using system GMM show that deposit dollarization has a negative impact on financial deepening on average. This negative impact is dampened in cases with past periods of high inflation. There is also some evidence that dollarization hampers financial efficiency. The results suggest that policy efforts to reduce dollarization can spur faster and safer financial development.