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On the Benefits of Repaying
This paper studies whether countries benefit from servicing their debts during times of widespread sovereign defaults. Colombia is typically regarded as the only large Latin American country that did not default in the 1980s. Using archival research and formal econometric estimates of Colombia's probability of default, we show that in the early 1980s Colombia's fundamentals were not significantly different from those of the Latin American countries that defaulted on their debts. We also document that the different path chosen by Colombia was due to the authorities' belief that maintaining a good reputation in the international capital market would have substantial long-term payoffs. We show ...
Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor's, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive tree analysis, we identify macroeconomic variables reflecting solvency and liquidity factors that predict a debt-crisis episode one year in advance. The logit model predicts 74 percent of all crises entries while sending few false alarms, and the recursive tree 89 percent while sending more false alarms.
Fiscal Federalism
This book provides a comprehensive account of the principles and practices of fiscal federalism based on the currently accepted theoretical framework and best practices. The traditional topics of assignment of responsibilities, intergovernmental fiscal arrangements, fiscal competition, and grants are covered in a unified framework with reference to actual practices followed in federations around the world. Special issues such as local government and the implications of natural resource issues are considered along with emerging issues such as governance, corruption, and the effect of globalization and the information revolution on the nation state. The treatment is non-technical and suitable for a wide variety of audiences, including scholars, instructors, students, policy advisors, and practitioners.
Monetary Policy in an Emerging European Economic and Monetary Union
This paper discusses key issues relating to the design and implementation of monetary policy in an emerging European economic and monetary union. Specific institutional proposals for transition to EMU are neither endorsed nor dismissed. In examining the goals of monetary policy, the paper explores the interrelationships among price stability, current account equilibrium, and exchange rate stability. Turning to the implementation of monetary policy, the issues addressed are: coordination versus autonomy, rules versus discretion, and the role of sterilized official intervention. Finally, the last part of the paper emphasizes the importance of fiscal discipline, and evaluates several alternative mechanisms for encouraging it.
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 3
This issue features a timely paper by Vladimir Klyuev and Paul Mills on the role of personal wealth and home equity withdrawal in the decline in the U.S. saving rate. Lusine Lusinyan and Leo Bonato explain how work absence in 18 European countries affects labor supply and demand. And a paper by Paolo Manasse (University of Bologna) entitled "Deficit Limits and Fiscal Rules for Dummies" examines fiscal frameworks.
Anti-system Politics
This book examines the electoral successes of anti-system forces in the rich democracies. It explains the rise of anti-system politicians and parties in terms of two separate but closely related developments: the rise of economic inequality and insecurity over the last four decades, and the failure of political elites to address them.
Game Theory and Applications
This book brings together papers of well-known specialists in game theory and adjacent problems. It presents the basic results in dynamic games, stochastic games, applications of game theoretical methods in ecology and economics and methodological aspects of game theory.
The Constitutional Boundaries of European Fiscal Federalism
This book provides an authoritative source for which models of fiscal federalism are compatible with the constitutional boundaries of the European legal order. It offers an encompassing guide to the leading constitutional case law in all EU Member States.
Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime
This collection of papers, edited by Victor Argy and Paul De Grauwe, examines issues surrounding the choice of exchange rate regime in smaller industrial countries. It contains a comprehensive summary by Jacques J. Polak.
Coalition of the unWilling and unAble
Why does the United States need European allies, and why is it getting more difficult for those allies to partner with Washington in standing up to China, pushing back against Russia, and pursuing other common interests around the world? This book addresses the economic, demographic, political, and military trends that are fundamentally upending the ability and willingness of European allies to work with Washington. Brexit and its impact on Britain’s economy and its military, Germany’s seemingly relentless economic and political rise, France’s continuing economic malaise, Italy’s aging population and its withdrawal from major overseas operations, and Poland’s demographic decline an...
