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Causal Inference
A nontechnical guide to the basic ideas of modern causal inference, with illustrations from health, the economy, and public policy. Which of two antiviral drugs does the most to save people infected with Ebola virus? Does a daily glass of wine prolong or shorten life? Does winning the lottery make you more or less likely to go bankrupt? How do you identify genes that cause disease? Do unions raise wages? Do some antibiotics have lethal side effects? Does the Earned Income Tax Credit help people enter the workforce? Causal Inference provides a brief and nontechnical introduction to randomized experiments, propensity scores, natural experiments, instrumental variables, sensitivity analysis, and quasi-experimental devices. Ideas are illustrated with examples from medicine, epidemiology, economics and business, the social sciences, and public policy.
Observational Studies
An observational study is an empirical investigation of the effects of treatments, policies, or exposures. It differes from an experiment in that the investigator cannot control the assignments of treatments to subjects. Scientists across a wide range of disciplines undertake such studies, and the aim of this book is to provide a sound statistical account of the principles and methods for the design and analysis of observational studies. Readers are assumed to have a working knowledge of basic probability and statistics, but otherwise the account is reasonably self-contained. Throughout there are extended discussions of actual observational studies to illustrate the ideas discussed. These are drawn from topics as diverse as smoking and lung cancer, lead in children, nuclear weapons testing, and placement programs for students. As a result, many researchers involved in observational studes will find this an invaluable companion to their work.
Observation and Experiment
A daily glass of wine prolongs life—yet alcohol can cause life-threatening cancer. Some say raising the minimum wage will decrease inequality while others say it increases unemployment. Scientists once confidently claimed that hormone replacement therapy reduced the risk of heart disease but now they equally confidently claim it raises that risk. What should we make of this endless barrage of conflicting claims? Observation and Experiment is an introduction to causal inference by one of the field’s leading scholars. An award-winning professor at Wharton, Paul Rosenbaum explains key concepts and methods through lively examples that make abstract principles accessible. He draws his example...
Design of Observational Studies
An observational study is an empiric investigation of effects caused by treatments when randomized experimentation is unethical or infeasible. Observational studies are common in most fields that study the effects of treatments on people, including medicine, economics, epidemiology, education, psychology, political science and sociology. The quality and strength of evidence provided by an observational study is determined largely by its design. Design of Observational Studies is both an introduction to statistical inference in observational studies and a detailed discussion of the principles that guide the design of observational studies. Design of Observational Studies is divided into four ...
Replication and Evidence Factors in Observational Studies
Outside of randomized experiments, association does not imply causation, and yet there is nothing defective about our knowledge that smoking causes lung cancer, a conclusion reached in the absence of randomized experimentation with humans. How is that possible? If observed associations do not identify causal effects in observational studies, how can a sequence of such associations become decisive? Two or more associations may each be susceptible to unmeasured biases, yet not susceptible to the same biases. An observational study has two evidence factors if it provides two comparisons susceptible to different biases that may be combined as if from independent studies of different data by diff...
Thoughts on Design
One of the seminal texts of graphic design, Paul Rand's Thoughts on Design is now available for the first time since the 1970s. Writing at the height of his career, Rand articulated in his slender volume the pioneering vision that all design should seamlessly integrate form and function. This facsimile edition preserves Rand's original 1947 essay with the adjustments he made to its text and imagery for a revised printing in 1970, and adds only an informative and inspiring new foreword by design luminary Michael Bierut. As relevant today as it was when first published, this classic treatise is an indispensable addition to the library of every designer.
The Long View of Crime: A Synthesis of Longitudinal Research
This volume examines longitudinal research in relation to crime and delinquency, and brings together prominent scholars in criminology to discuss theory, methodology, and impact of longitudinal studies in criminology. It answers a key question in Criminology: What have we learned from recent longitudinal studies of crime and delinquency? The volume includes a synthesis of longitudinal studies in criminology over the last 25 years and an appendix.
Overcoming the Odds
Each year, millions of high school students consider whether to continue their schooling and attend and complete college. Despite evidence showing that a college degree yields far-reaching benefits, critics of higher education increasingly argue that college “does not pay off” and some students - namely, disadvantaged prospective college goers - would be better served by forgoing higher education. But debates about the value of college often fail to carefully consider what is required to speak knowledgeably about the benefits –what a person’s life might look like had they not completed college, or their college counterfactual. In Overcoming the Odds sociologist Jennie E. Brand reveal...
Observation and Experiment
A daily glass of wine prolongs life—yet alcohol can cause life-threatening cancer. Some say raising the minimum wage will decrease inequality while others say it increases unemployment. Scientists once confidently claimed that hormone replacement therapy reduced the risk of heart disease but now they equally confidently claim it raises that risk. What should we make of this endless barrage of conflicting claims? Observation and Experiment is an introduction to causal inference by one of the field’s leading scholars. An award-winning professor at Wharton, Paul Rosenbaum explains key concepts and methods through lively examples that make abstract principles accessible. He draws his example...
