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The Microstructure Approach to Exchange Rates
Historically, the fields of exchange-rate economics and microstructure finance have progressed independently of each other. Recent interaction, however, has given rise to a microstructure approach to exchange rates. This book focuses on the economics of financial information and how microstructure tools help to clarify the types of information most relevant to exchange rates. The microstructure approach views exchange rates from the perspective of the trading room, the place where exchange rates are actually determined. Emphasizing information economics over institutional issues, the approach departs from three unrealistic assumptions common to previous approaches: that all information relevant to exchange rates is publicly available, that all market participants are alike in their goals or in how they view information, and that how trading is organized is inconsequential for exchange rates. The book shows how exchange-rate behavior previously thought to be particularly puzzling can be explained using the microstructure approach. It contains a combination of theoretical and empirical work.
The Berkeley-Haas School of Business
The Berkeley-Haas School of Business case study outlines the history of Dean Rich Lyons' culture efforts. The case discusses the challenges the dean faced as well as future challenges to sustain the culture after the dean steps down at the end of the 2017/2018 school year.
Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics
Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic determinants, the model includes a determinant from the field of microstructure-order flow. Order flow is the proximate determinant of price in all microstructure models. This is a radically different approach to exchange rate determination. It is also strikingly successful in accounting for realized rates. Our model of daily exchange-rate changes produces R2 statistics above 50 percent. Out of sample, our model produces significantly better short-horizon forecasts than a random walk. For the DM/$ spot market as a whole, we find that $1 billion of net dollar purchases increases the DM price of a dollar by about 1 pfennig.
Foreign Exchange Volume
This paper examines whether currency trading volume is informative, and under what circumstances. Specifically, we use transactions data to test whether trades occurring when trading intensity is high are more informative - dollar for dollar - than trades occurring when intensity is low. Theory admits both possibilities, depending primarily on the posited information structure. We present what we call a hot-potato model of currency trading, which explains why low-intensity trades might be more informative. In the model, the wave of inventory-management trading among dealers following innovations in order flow generates an inverse relationship between intensity and information content. Empirically, low-intensity trades are more informative, supporting the hot-potato hypothesis."
A New Micro Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics
"We address the exchange rate determination puzzle by examining how information is aggregated in a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) setting. Unlike other DGE macro models, which enrich either preference structures or production structures, our model enriches the information structure. The model departs from microstructure-style modeling by identifying the real activities where dispersed information originates, as well as the technology by which information is subsequently aggregated and impounded. Results relevant to the determination puzzle include: (1) persistent gaps between exchange rates and macro fundamentals, (2) excess volatility relative to macro fundamentals, (3) exchange rate mov...
Handbook of Exchange Rates
Praise for Handbook of Exchange Rates “This book is remarkable. I expect it to become the anchor reference for people working in the foreign exchange field.” —Richard K. Lyons, Dean and Professor of Finance, Haas School of Business, University of California Berkeley “It is quite easily the most wide ranging treaty of expertise on the forex market I have ever come across. I will be keeping a copy close to my fingertips.” —Jim O’Neill, Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management How should we evaluate the forecasting power of models? What are appropriate loss functions for major market participants? Is the exchange rate the only means of adjustment? Handbook of Exchange Rates answer...
How is Macro News Transmitted to Exchange Rates?
This paper tests whether macroeconomic news is transmitted to exchange rates via the transactions process and if so, what share occurs via transactions versus the traditional direct channel. We identify the link between order flow and macro news using a heteroskedasticity-based approach, a la Rigobon and Sack (2002). In both daily and intra-daily data, order flow varies considerably with macro news flow. At least half of the effect of macro news on exchange rates is transmitted via order flow.
Portfolio Balance, Price Impact, and Secret Intervention
This paper tests the portfolio-balance approach to exchange rate determination in a new way. Past work on portfolio balance in foreign exchange falls into two groups: (1) tests using measures of asset supply and (2) tests using measures of central-bank asset demand. We address the demand side, but we use a broad measure of public demand, rather than focusing on demand by central banks. Under floating rates, changing public demand has no direct effect on interest rates, current or future. This provides an opportunity to test for portfolio-balance effects on price. We develop and estimate a micro portfolio-balance model that has both Walrasian and microstructure features. Portfolio-balance effects are clearly present: the immediate price impact of public trades is 0.44 percent per $1 billion (of which, about 80 percent persists indefinitely). This estimate is applicable to central-bank trades as well, as long as they are sterilized, secret, and provide no monetary-policy signal. Intervention of this type is most effective when the flow of macroeconomic news is strong.
Is There Private Information in the FX Market?
It is a common view that private information in the foreign exchange market does not exist. We provide evidence against this view. The evidence comes from the introduction of trading in Tokyo over the lunch-hour. Lunch return variance doubles with the introduction of trading, which cannot be due to public information since the flow of public information did not change with the trading rules. Having eliminated public information as the cause, we exploit the volatility pattern over the whole day to discriminate between the two alternatives: private information and pricing errors. Three key results support the predictions of private-information models. First, the volatility U-shape flattens: greater revelation over lunch leaves a smaller share for the morning and afternoon. Second, the U-shape tilts upward, an implication of information whose private value is transitory. Finally, the morning exhibits a clear U-shape when Tokyo closes over lunch, and it disappears when trading is introduced.
