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Macroeconomic Research in Low-income Countries
Despite strong economic growth since 2000, many low-income countries (LICs) still face numerous macroeconomic challenges, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the deceleration in real GDP growth during the 2008 global financial crisis, LICs on average saw 4.5 percent of real GDP growth during 2000 to 2014, making progress in economic convergence toward higher-income countries. However, the commodity price collapse in 2014–15 hit many commodity-exporting LICs and highlighted their vulnerabilities due to the limited extent of economic diversification. Furthermore, LICs are currently facing a crisis like no other—COVID-19, which requires careful policymaking to save lives and livelihoods in LICs, informed by policy debate and thoughtful research tailored to the COVID-19 situation. There are also other challenges beyond COVID-19, such as climate change, high levels of public debt burdens, and persistent structural issues.
The Path to Higher Growth
This paper argues that Japan’s excessive labor market duality can reduce Total Factor Productivity (TFP) due to a negative impact on non-regular workers’ effort and on firms’ incentives to train them. On the basis of cross-country empirical evidence, the paper proposes some reform options. In particular, our analysis suggests that reducing the difference in employment protection between regular and non-regular workers would substantially reduce labor market duality in Japan. One reform consistent with these findings is the introduction of a Single Open Ended Contract for all newly hired workers. This reform could be complemented by a shift towards a model that combines labor market flexibility and security (“flexicurity”) and by policies aimed at encouraging wage growth.
Strategies for Reforming Korea’s Labor Market to Foster Growth
While the Korean unemployment rates are currently among the lowest in OECD countries, the labor market duality and the underemployment in some segments of the population are important labor market challenges, and factors contributing to lower potential growth. The paper shows the benefits of comprehensive policy reforms aimed at increasing labor force participation and youth employment and reducing duality are likely to be considerable in the medium term.
Rich People Poor Countries
Like the robber barons of the 19th century Gilded Age, a new and proliferating crop of billionaires is driving rapid development and industrialization in poor countries. The accelerated industrial growth spurs economic prosperity for some, but it also widens the gap between the super rich and the rest of the population, especially the very poor. In Rich People Poor Countries, Caroline Freund identifies and analyzes nearly 700 emerging-market billionaires whose net worth adds up to more than $2 trillion. Freund finds that these titans of industry are propelling poor countries out of their small-scale production and agricultural past and into a future of multinational industry and service-based mega firms. And more often than not, the new billionaires are using their newfound acumen to navigate the globalized economy, without necessarily relying on political connections, inheritance, or privileged access to resources. This story of emerging-market billionaires and the global businesses they create dramatically illuminates the process of industrialization in the modern world economy.
Using Evidence to Inform Policy
To promote evidence-based policy making, the Asian Development Bank partnered with Innovations for Poverty Action and the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab in 2012 to deliver a 3-day conference on impact evaluation and public policy in Bangkok. Over 200 scholars, practitioners and policy makers from 34 countries attended the conference. Each day of the conference focused on one of three areas that have high relevance to the region and have received the most proactive development efforts: governance, financial inclusion, and small and medium enterprise development. This report summarizes innovative evaluation studies presented at the conference and researchers' insights into the topics.
Learning Better
Despite governments' best efforts, many people in Latin America and the Caribbean don't have the skills they need to thrive. This book looks at what policies work, and don't work, so that governments can help people learn better and realize their potential throughout their lifetimes.
Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth
We show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty—measured by stock market volatility—reduces productivity growth more in industries that depend heavily on external finance. This effect is larger during recessions, when financing constraints are more likely to be binding, than during expansions. Our statistical method—a difference-in-difference approach using productivity growth for 25 industries for 18 advanced economies over the period 1985-2010—mitigates concerns with omitted variable bias and reverse causality. The results are robust to the inclusion of other sources of interaction effects, such as financial development (Rajan and Zingales, 1998) and counter-cyclical fiscal policy (Aghion et al., 2014). The results also hold if economic policy uncertainty (Baker et al., 2015) is used instead of stock market volatility as the measure of aggregate uncertainty.
Korea’s Challenges Ahead—Lessons from Japan’s Experience
This paper draws out the parallels between Korea and Japan in terms of demographics, potential growth, balance sheets, asset prices and inflation. Korea’s demographic trends seem to track Japan’s with a lag of about 20 years. Low productivity in the service sector and labor market duality are common to both countries and need to be addressed with structural reforms. While Korea’s corporate balance sheets are stronger than Japan’s in the early 1990s, Korea needs to progress with the restructuring of nonviable firms to avoid the adverse consequences of delayed balance-sheet repair that Japan experienced. Given its strong fiscal balance sheet position, Korea can afford using fiscal policy actively to incentivize corporate restructuring and structural reforms and cushion their possible short-term adverse impact. Korea can prevent bubbles in asset prices that were at the origin of Japan’s initial crisis with the continued use of macroprudential policies. Although Korea does not appear to be headed toward deflation, new econometric analysis presented in the paper suggests that aging will exert a downward drag on its inflation going forward.
The Palgrave Handbook of Contemporary International Political Economy
Published 35 years after Palgrave Macmillan’s landmark International Political Economy (IPE) series was first founded, this Handbook captures the state of the art of contemporary IPE. It draws on the series’ history of focusing on the oft-neglected study of the global South. Providing interdisciplinary perspectives from scholars hailing from the global North and South, the Handbook illustrates the theoretical innovations and empirical richness necessary to explain today’s ever-changing world. This is a world in which the global South and North are not only being transformed by the end of bipolarity and the rise of the BRICS, but also by diverse global crises and growing cross-border ch...
The Oxford Handbook of Industrial Hubs and Economic Development
This Handbook illustrates the diverse and complex nature of industrial hubs and shows how industrial hubs promote industrialization, economic structural transformation, and economic catch-up.
