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Experts in Uncertainty
This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.
Probabilistic Risk Analysis
Probabilistic risk analysis aims to quantify the risk caused by high technology installations. Increasingly, such analyses are being applied to a wider class of systems in which problems such as lack of data, complexity of the systems, uncertainty about consequences, make a classical statistical analysis difficult or impossible. The authors discuss the fundamental notion of uncertainty, its relationship with probability, and the limits to the quantification of uncertainty. Drawing on extensive experience in the theory and applications of risk analysis, the authors focus on the conceptual and mathematical foundations underlying the quantification, interpretation and management of risk. They cover standard topics as well as important new subjects such as the use of expert judgement and uncertainty propagation. The relationship of risk analysis with decision making is highlighted in chapters on influence diagrams and decision theory. Finally, the difficulties of choosing metrics to quantify risk, and current regulatory frameworks are discussed.
Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis
This book pulls together many perspectives on the theory, methods and practice of drawing judgments from panels of experts in assessing risks and making decisions in complex circumstances. The book is divided into four parts: Structured Expert Judgment (SEJ) current research fronts; the contributions of Roger Cooke and the Classical Model he developed; process, procedures and education; and applications. After an Introduction by the Editors, the first part presents chapters on expert elicitation of parameters of multinomial models; the advantages of using performance weighting by advancing the “random expert” hypothesis; expert elicitation for specific graphical models; modelling depende...
Uncertainty Analysis with High Dimensional Dependence Modelling
Mathematical models are used to simulate complex real-world phenomena in many areas of science and technology. Large complex models typically require inputs whose values are not known with certainty. Uncertainty analysis aims to quantify the overall uncertainty within a model, in order to support problem owners in model-based decision-making. In recent years there has been an explosion of interest in uncertainty analysis. Uncertainty and dependence elicitation, dependence modelling, model inference, efficient sampling, screening and sensitivity analysis, and probabilistic inversion are among the active research areas. This text provides both the mathematical foundations and practical applica...
Morse Code for Radio Amateurs
Learn or improve your Morse code with this guide. CD includes software and MP3 files to help you practise Morse code.
The History of Mathematics
This new edition brings the fascinating and intriguing history of mathematics to life The Second Edition of this internationally acclaimed text has been thoroughly revised, updated, and reorganized to give readers a fresh perspective on the evolution of mathematics. Written by one of the world's leading experts on the history of mathematics, the book details the key historical developments in the field, providing an understanding and appreciation of how mathematics influences today's science, art, music, literature, and society. In the first edition, each chapter was devoted to a single culture. This Second Edition is organized by subject matter: a general survey of mathematics in many cultu...
Tainted
Three-fourths of scientific research in the United States is funded by special interests. Many of these groups have specific practical goals, such as developing pharmaceuticals or establishing that a pollutant causes only minimal harm. For groups with financial conflicts of interest, their scientific findings often can be deeply flawed. To uncover and assess these scientific flaws, award-winning biologist and philosopher of science Kristin Shrader-Frechette uses the analytical tools of classic philosophy of science. She identifies and evaluates the concepts, data, inferences, methods, models, and conclusions of science tainted by the influence of special interests. As a result, she challenge...
The Failure of Risk Management
A practical guide to adopting an accurate risk analysis methodology The Failure of Risk Management provides effective solutionstosignificantfaults in current risk analysis methods. Conventional approaches to managing risk lack accurate quantitative analysis methods, yielding strategies that can actually make things worse. Many widely used methods have no systems to measure performance, resulting in inaccurate selection and ineffective application of risk management strategies. These fundamental flaws propagate unrealistic perceptions of risk in business, government, and the general public. This book provides expert examination of essential areas of risk management, including risk assessment ...
Dependence Modeling
1. Introduction : Dependence modeling / D. Kurowicka -- 2. Multivariate copulae / M. Fischer -- 3. Vines arise / R.M. Cooke, H. Joe and K. Aas -- 4. Sampling count variables with specified Pearson correlation : A comparison between a naive and a C-vine sampling approach / V. Erhardt and C. Czado -- 5. Micro correlations and tail dependence / R.M. Cooke, C. Kousky and H. Joe -- 6. The Copula information criterion and Its implications for the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimator / S. Gronneberg -- 7. Dependence comparisons of vine copulae with four or more variables / H. Joe -- 8. Tail dependence in vine copulae / H. Joe -- 9. Counting vines / O. Morales-Napoles -- 10. Regular vines : Generatio...
Classical Algebra
This insightful book combines the history, pedagogy, and popularization of algebra to present a unified discussion of the subject. Classical Algebra provides a complete and contemporary perspective on classical polynomial algebra through the exploration of how it was developed and how it exists today. With a focus on prominent areas such as the numerical solutions of equations, the systematic study of equations, and Galois theory, this book facilitates a thorough understanding of algebra and illustrates how the concepts of modern algebra originally developed from classical algebraic precursors. This book successfully ties together the disconnect between classical and modern algebraand provid...
