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Morocco's Quest for Stronger and Inclusive Growth
Throughout the past two decades, Morocco has faced several external and domestic shocks, including large swings in international oil prices, regional geopolitical tensions, severe droughts, and most recently the impact of the pandemic and the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite rough waters, the government stayed the course and remained focused not only on immediate stability, but also on the long-term needs of the Moroccan economy. This involved the adoption of a series of difficult measures, like the elimination of energy subsidies, and a strategy aimed at improving the country's infrastructure, diversifying the production and export bases by attracting foreign inve...
Sustainable India: Towards 2075: Roadmap for harmonious living in 150 blue green cities
Embark on a journey into the future with "Sustainable India," a revolutionary blueprint that charts the course for India's transformation into a sustainable superpower in 50 years. In this pioneering work, the author unveils a novel strategy that places sustainability at the forefront of India's national objectives, ultimately leading to the creation of the world's first sustainable economy and ecosystem. Central to the book's proposal is the establishment of 130-150 equal high-rise, mixed-use blue-green cities as the linchpin of India's sustainability journey. The move enables large scale natural farming (~100 Mha), dense forests over 55% of land area and an extensive network of rivers, lak...
Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Through an Industry-Level Differential Approach
By combining industry-level data on output and prices with monetary policy rates for a panel of 88 countries, this paper analyzes how the effects of monetary policy vary with certain industry characteristics. Next to being interesting in their own right, our results are informative on the importance of various transmission mechanisms (as they are expected to vary systematically with the included characteristics). Rather than relying on standard monetary policy shock identification, we overcome the endogeneity problem by taking a differential approach (interacting our monetary policy measure with industry-level characteristics). Our results suggest that monetary contractions reduce output by more in industries featuring assets that are more difficult to collateralize (as predicted by the balance sheet channel) and in industries more reliant on international trade (as predicted by the exchange rate channel). Consistent with the financial accelerator mechanism, we find that the balance sheet channel becomes stronger during bad times. At the same time, we do not find evidence supporting the traditional interest rate channel of monetary policy; the same goes for the cost channel.
The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy
We study the role of regional housing markets in the transmission of US monetary policy. Using a FAVAR model over 1999q1–2019q4, we find sizeable heterogeneity in the responses of US states to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Part of this regional variation is due to differences in housing supply elasticities, household debt overhang, and housing wealth (volatility). Our analysis indicates that house prices and consumption respond more in supply-inelastic states and in states with large household debt imbalances, where negative housing wealth effects bite more strongly and borrowing constraints become more binding. Moreover, financial stability risks increase sharply in these areas as mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures surge, worsening banks’ balance sheets. Finally, monetary policy may have a stronger effect on housing tenure decisions in supply-inelastic states, where the homeownership rate and price-to-rent ratios decline by more. Our findings stress the importance of regional housing supply conditions in assessing the macrofinancial effects of rising interest rates.
Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Sub-Saharan Africa
The region is seeing a modest growth uptick, but this is not uniform and the medium-term outlook remains subdued. Growth is projected to rise to 3.4 percent in 2018, from 2.8 percent in 2017, on the back of improved global growth, higher commodity prices, and continued strong public spending. About 3⁄4 of the countries in the region are predicted to experience faster growth. Beyond 2018, growth is expected to plateau below 4 percent, modestly above population growth, reflecting continued sluggishness in the oil-exporting countries and sustained growth in non-resource-intensive countries. A number of countries (Burundi, DRC, South Sudan, and parts of the Sahel) remain locked in internal conflict resulting in record levels of refugees and Internally Displaced Persons, with adverse spillovers to neighboring countries.
When Do Structural Reforms Work? On the Role of the Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policies
Structural reforms are expected to lift growth and employment, but their effects are surprisingly difficult to pin down empirically. One reason is their potential endogeneity to the economic environment in which they are conducted. For example, the impact of a reform implemented shortly before a cyclical upswing is difficult to distinguish from the recovery itself. Similarly, macroeconomic policies conducted along a structural reform could affect the estimated impact. Exploring various options, this paper develops robust estimates of the impact of labor and product market reforms by using local projection techniques while controlling for endogeneity of reforms and other biases. The results suggest that labor and product market reforms have a lagged but positive impact on employment creation, and the positive effect remains even after controlling for the endogeneity of the decision to reform. Supportive macroeconomic policies are found to increase the effect of labor and product market reforms, consistent with the view that some structural reforms are best initiated in conjunction with supportive fiscal or monetary policy.
Singapore
This Financial System Stability Assessment paper on Singapore highlights the attractiveness of Singapore as a financial center is underpinned by strong economic fundamentals, sound economic policies, and a sophisticated financial oversight framework. The financial system is exposed to global and regional macrofinancial shocks through significant trade and financial channels but appears resilient even under adverse scenarios. However, banks’ US dollar liquidity is vulnerable to stress conditions. Fintech developments so far have focused on partnerships with existing financial institutions and do not appear to contribute significantly to systemic risk. Singapore authorities should continue to enhance its strong oversight of the financial system. Strengthening the framework for resolution and safety nets, namely by devoting more resources to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS)’ Resolution Unit; and enhancing the oversight of MAS Electronic Payments System by ensuring more staffing resources are two other important areas for action.
Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms on Potential Output: The Case of Morocco
This paper assesses Morocco’s potential output and the scope for structural reforms to reverse the downward trend in economic performance observed since the Global Financial Crisis. Using multivariate filtering (MVF) techniques, our analysis finds that the downward secular trend in potential growth was primarily driven by the decline in the contribution of labor inputs. We then combine production function and general equilibrium model approaches to provide estimates of the potential macroeconomic impact of Morocco’s structural reform agenda. The results suggest that the planned structural reforms could deliver sizable output gains in the medium to long term with reforms that would reduce the large gender gap in Morocco’s labor market yielding the greatest payoffs.
