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Imperfect Knowledge Economics
Posing a major challenge to economic orthodoxy, Imperfect Knowledge Economics asserts that exact models of purposeful human behavior are beyond the reach of economic analysis. Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue that the longstanding empirical failures of conventional economic models stem from their futile efforts to make exact predictions about the consequences of rational, self-interested behavior. Such predictions, based on mechanistic models of human behavior, disregard the importance of individual creativity and unforeseeable sociopolitical change. Scientific though these explanations may appear, they usually fail to predict how markets behave. And, the authors contend, recent beha...
Capitalism with a Comrade's Face
Each of the essays in this collection dissects the upheaval in a particular institution in transition, such as central banking, the trade union movement, capital markets, or corporate governance. In a lively and accessible style, the authors bring out the links between what was and what will be in the social fabric of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. They expose the fragility of political and economic institutions that can easily threaten the region's rebirth, but they also believe that many post-Communist countries are successfully seizing the opportunity to become reunited with the West and the global economy.
Beyond Mechanical Markets
A powerful challenge to contemporary economics and a new agenda for global finance In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, faith in the rationality of markets has lost ground to a new faith in their irrationality. The problem, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue, is that both the rational and behavioral theories of the market rest on the same fatal assumption—that markets act mechanically and economic change is fully predictable. In Beyond Mechanical Markets, Frydman and Goldberg show how the failure to abandon this assumption hinders our understanding of how markets work, why price swings help allocate capital to worthy companies, and what role government can a...
Privatization in Eastern Europe
In Eastern Europe privatization is now a mass phenomenon. The authors propose a model of it by means of an illustration from the example of Poland, which envisages the free provision of shares in formerly public undertakings to employees and consumers, and the provision of corporate finance from foreign intermediaries. One danger that emerges is that of bureaucratization. On the broader canvas, mass privatization implies the reform of the whole system, the creation of a suitable economic infrastructure for a market economy and the institutions of corporate governance. The authors point out the need for a delicate balance between evolution - which may be too slow - and design - which brings the risk of more government involvement than it is able to manage. A chapter originating as a European Bank working paper explores the banking implications of setting up a totally new financial sector with interlocking classes of assets. The economic effects merge into politics as the role of the state is investigated. Teachers and graduate students of public/private sector economies, East European affairs; advisers to bankers or commercial companies with Eastern European interests.
Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes
The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.
Knowledge, Information, and Expectations in Modern Macroeconomics
Assembling some of the leading figures in the field of macroeconomics, this text highlights the continuing influence of the ideas of Edmund Phelps since the early 1960s. The contributions address many of the most important current areas of macroeconomic research in 2003.
Privatization in the Transition to a Market Economy
Privatization policies are the centrepiece of the historically unique transformation of the centrally planned, into market economies. Yet the peculiarities of the privatization process in Eastern Europe are little understood in the West because of differences in historical, socio-political and economic contexts relative to Western experience. Most research on privatization in the West is rather theoretical and thus pays insufficient attention to these contexts, perhaps because their importance is not widely appreciated and because there has been little information about them available. Moreover, the significant differences among East European countries in contexts and in policies are not well-understood even within the region, again because of a lack of information.
The Japanese Myths
This is a smart and succinct guide to the rich tradition of Japanese mythology, from the earliest recorded legends of Izanagi and Izanami, their divine offspring and the creation of Japan, to medieval tales of vengeful ghosts, through to the modern-day reincarnation of ancient deities as the heroes of mecha anime. While many around the world love Japans cultural exports, few are familiar with Japans unique mythology - enriched by Shinto, Buddhism and regional folklore. Mythology remains a living, evolving part of Japanese society, and the ways in which the people of Japan understand their myths are very different today even from a century ago, let alone over a millennium into the past. Offer...
Economies in Transition
In 1994, the Asia Foundation's Center for Asian Pacific Affairs began a two-year project to compare the transitions of selected East European and Asian economies from centrally-planned communist systems to market economies. The goal was to shed light on the transition process through an understanding of the underlying economic and institutional dynamics. This volume is the culmination of that project.The volume is divided into three parts. In the first part, an overview, the editors review the authors' findings and highlight major themes. The second part looks closely at the transition process in seven Asian and East European economies: China, Vietnam, Mongolia, Russia, Poland, Hungary, and ...
How Novelty and Narratives Drive the Stock Market
'Animal spirits' is a term that describes the instincts and emotions driving human behaviour in economic settings. In recent years, this concept has been discussed in relation to the emerging field of narrative economics. When unscheduled events hit the stock market, from corporate scandals and technological breakthroughs to recessions and pandemics, relationships driving returns change in unforeseeable ways. To deal with uncertainty, investors engage in narratives which simplify the complexity of real-time, non-routine change. This book assesses the novelty-narrative hypothesis for the U.S. stock market by conducting a comprehensive investigation of unscheduled events using big data textual analysis of financial news. This important contribution to the field of narrative economics finds that major macro events and associated narratives spill over into the churning stream of corporate novelty and sub-narratives, spawning different forms of unforeseeable stock market instability.
