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Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. - Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures - Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature - Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Anlass der vorliegenden Arbeit war die sogenannte Agrarwende 2001 in Deutschland und insbesondere die Positionierung „Professoren mahnen zur Vernunft in der Agrarpolitik“. Gemahnt wurde jedoch nicht von ProfessorInnen der Agrarpolitik, sondern vielmehr von AgrarökonomInnen. Darin liegt eine Kernthematik dieser Arbeit, denn alle Professuren für Agrarpolitik an den Universitäten in Deutschland sind derzeit von ÖkonomInnen besetzt und diese dominieren auch die Wirtschafts-und Sozialwissenschaften aller Agrarfakultäten. Mit der institutionell, personell und thematisch umfassenden Historie beider Disziplinen, einschließlich der NS-Zeit, wird mit der vorliegenden Arbeit auf die alte und ...
Group Motion--an improvisational dance performance practice--represents fifty years of co-creation by the authors, with the participation of thousands of dancers, musicians, videographers and others around the globe. Informed by Mary Wigman's expressionist dance and other contemporary dance and theater traditions, Group Motion has brought dance not only to stages worldwide, but also to public parks, prisons and airports. Part memoir, part guidebook, part philosophy of art treatise, this book provides step-by-step guidance to dozens of improvisational structures or games for dance professionals, theater artists, musicians and other performers who use movement for creative expression.
I conduct interviews with 32 Central Bankers from Emerging Markets and present five unifying themes that explain their behavior when reacting to a U.S. monetary tightening. I then estimate the impulse response functions of their two main monetary tools, the policy rate and foreign exchange interventions, to an increase in the U.S. rate, using the answers from the interviews as a guide for the best econometric specification. I find that most Central Banks react to a U.S. tightening by raising domestic rates, regardless of the exchange rate regime, but their reasons for doing so vary – from controlling inflation to preventing capital outflows.
Im Zuge der Finanzkrise von 2009 ist die Virtualität der Geldwirtschaft zunehmend in den Fokus der Öffentlichkeit geraten – und damit auch die Fiktionalität der Finanzwelt. In der Wirtschaftspresse sowie in einschlägigen Publikationen ist von einer Entkoppelung der internationalen Finanzmärkte die Rede, das Verhalten mancher Propheten der Finanzwirtschaft ähnelt eher dem von Magiern und Taschentrickspielern. Dominierten in der interdisziplinären Forschung zum Thema »Literatur und Wirtschaft« bisher Ansätze, die sich für die Darstellung ökonomischer Sachverhalte in der Literatur interessierten, so ist es nun der fiktionale Charakter der Ökonomie selbst, mit dem sich der Band auseinandersetzt.
This paper quantifies the economic impact of uncertainty shocks in the UK using data that span the recent Great Recession. We find that uncertainty shocks have a significant impact on economic activity in the UK, depressing industrial production and GDP. The peak impact is felt fairly quickly at around 6-12 months after the shock, and becomes statistically negligible after 18 months. Interestingly, the impact of uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the UK is strikingly similar to that of the US both in terms of the shape and magnitude of the response. However, unemployment in the UK is less affected by uncertainty shocks. Finally, we find that uncertainty shocks can account for about a quarter of the decline in industrial production during the Great Recession.
We review a recent approach to understanding the equity premium puzzle. The key elements of this approach are loss aversion and narrow framing, two well-known features of decision-making under risk in experimental settings. In equilibrium, models that incorporate these ideas can generate a large equity premium and a low and stable risk-free rate, even when consumption growth is smooth and only weakly correlated with the stock market. Moreover, they can do so for parameter values that correspond to sensible attitudes to independent monetary gambles. We conclude by suggesting some possible directions for future research.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2011 • Job Search, Emotional Well-Being, and Job Finding in a Periodof Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal DataBy Alan B. Krueger and Andreas Mueller • Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and ImplicationsBy Annamaria Lusardi, Daniel Schneider, and Peter Tufano • Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysisof Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2By Eric T. Swanson • An Exploration of Optimal Stabilization PolicyBy N. Gregory Mankiw and Matthew Weinzierl • What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession?By Michael C. Burda and Jennifer Hunt • Inflation Dynamics and the Great RecessionBy Laurence Ball and Sandeep Mazumder
In this paper, I survey the previous literature on the saving behavior of the aged in Japan and then present some survey data on the saving behavior of the aged in Japan that became available recently. To summarize the main findings of this paper, all previous studies as well as the newly available data I analyze find that the retired aged dissave and that even the working aged dissave at very advanced ages. These findings are consistent with the life cycle model and suggest that this model is highly applicable in the case of Japan.