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Demography and the Economy
Demographics is a vital field of study for understanding social and economic change and it has attracted attention in recent years as concerns have grown over the aging populations of developed nations. Demographic studies help make sense of key aspects of the economy, offering insight into trends in fertility, mortality, immigration, and labor force participation, as well as age, gender, and race specific trends in health and disability. Demography and the Economy explores the connections between demography and economics, paying special attention to what demographic trends can reveal about the sustainability of traditional social security programs and the larger implications for economic growth. The volume brings together some of the leading scholars working at the border between the two disciplines, and it provides an eclectic overview of both fields. Contributors also offer deeper analysis of a variety of issues such as the impact of greater wealth on choices about marriage and childbearing and the effects of aging populations on housing prices, Social Security, and Medicare.
Macroeconomic Consequences of Demographic Change
This book represents a culmination of my Ph.D. research conducted at the Ruhr Graduate School in Economics and at the University of Duisburg-Essen from Oc- ber 2005 to April 2008. Many people have generously contributed their time, ex- rience and resources towards the success of this dissertation. First and foremost, I would like to thank Prof. Dr. Volker Clausen, a great sup- visor, who has always encouraged my work. It has been a pleasure to work under his excellent guidance. His steady engagement and support have provided me the kind of working environment that has proved to be instrumental in writing this thesis. I am also grateful to my second supervisor, Prof. Dr. Thomas F. Rutherford, who has inspired my work from the beginning. This thesis would de?nitely not have been possible without his innumerable and fundamental contributions in the area of c- putational economics. As a co-author of Chapter 2 of this thesis, he was a pleasure to collaborate with and learn from.
Subsidizing Job Creation in the Great Recession
Analyzes the effects of various labor market policies on job creation, job destruction, and employment. The equilibrium model is calibrated to capture labor market conditions at the end of 2009, including the unemployment, inflow, and outflow rates by workers of different educational attainment. The authors consider the equilibrium effects of a hiring subsidy, a payroll tax reduction, and an employment subsidy. They find that a hiring subsidy and a payroll tax deduction, as in the Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act, can stimulate job creation in the short term, but can cause a higher equilibrium unemployment rate in the long term. Employment subsidies succeed in lowering the unemploy. rate permanently, but the policy entails high fiscal costs. Illus.
Will the Demand for Assets Fall When the Baby Boomers Retire?
In the decade to come, an important development will be the retirement of a substantial proportion of the baby-boom generation ¿ the segment of the population born between 1946 and 1964, whose oldest members turned 62 in 2008. This report focuses on what could happen in one area: the demand for assets, particularly financial assets, such as stocks and bonds. Some economists have warned of the possibility of a dramatic decline in demand as baby boomers sell off their assets to finance consumption in retirement; they assert that the sell-off could cause a dramatic decline in prices. An evaluation of the evidence, however, indicates that such a dramatic decline in asset demand and prices is unlikely. Charts and tables.
Senegal
This Selected Issues paper estimates the macroeconomic impact of these discoveries and discusses potential fiscal frameworks for managing related revenues. Pre-production investment (2019–2021) will lead to an increase in the current account deficit; however, this will be followed by a boost to exports as hydrocarbon production comes online (2022 onward). Discoveries are important but will not lead to a major transformation of the economy, with hydrocarbons expected to make up not more than 5 percent of GDP. Fiscal revenues would average about 1.5 percent of GDP over a 25-year period and about 3 percent of GDP when production peaks. Given the relatively small gains in revenue, IMF staff recommends a fiscal framework that allows for an initial drawdown of government resources to finance large up-front investment needs, followed by an appropriate target level of the non-resource primary balance which is to serve as a medium-term fiscal anchor. Issues related to managing the volatility of resource revenues are also discussed.
On Financing Retirement, Health, and Long-term Care in Japan
Japan faces the problem of how to finance retirement, health, and long-term care expenditures as the population ages. This paper analyzes the impact of policy options intended to address this problem by employing a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations model, specifically parameterized to match both the macroeconomic and microeconomic level data of Japan. We find that financing the costs of aging through gradual increases in the consumption tax rate delivers a better macroeconomic performance and higher welfare for most individuals than other financing options, including those of raising social security contributions, debt financing, and a uniform increase in health and long-term care copayments.
Social Security, Benefit Claiming, and Labor Force Participation
This is a print on demand edition of a hard to find publication. A general equilibrium model of overlapping generations that incorporates endogenous saving, labor force participation, work hours, and Social Security (SS) benefit claims. Three SS reforms are studied: 1) a reduction in benefits and payroll taxes; 2) an increase in the earliest retirement age, to 64 from 62; and 3) an increase in the normal retirement age, to 68 from 66. A 50% cut in the scope of the current system significantly raises asset holdings and the labor input, through higher participation of older workers, and reduces the shortfall of the SS budget. Increasing the normal retirement age also raises saving and the labor supply, but the effects are smaller. Postponing the earliest retirement age has only a negligible effect. Charts and tables.
The Macroeconomic and Distributional Implications of Fiscal Consolidations in Low-income Countries
We quantitatively investigate the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of fiscal consolidations in low-income countries (LICs) through value added tax (VAT), personal income tax (PIT), and corporate income tax (CIT). We extend the standard heterogeneous agents incomplete markets model by including multiple sectors and rural-urban distinction to capture salient features of LICs. We find that overall, VAT has the least efficiency costs but is highly regressive, while PIT impacts the economy in the opposite way with CIT staying in between. Cash transfers targeting rural households mitigate the negative distributional impacts of VAT most effectively, while public investment leads to little redistribution.
Economics and Ageing
This upper level textbook provides a coherent introduction to the economic implications of individual and population ageing. Placing economic considerations into a wider social sciences context, this is ideal reading not only for advanced undergraduate and masters students in economics, health economics and the economics of ageing, but also policy makers, students, professionals and practitioners in gerontology, sociology, health-related sciences and social care. This volume introduces the different conceptualisations of age and definitions of `old age', as well as the main theories of individual ageing as developed in the disciplines of biology, psychology and sociology. It covers the economic theories of fertility, mortality and migration and describes the four main frameworks that can be used to study economics and ageing, namely the life cycle, the overlapping generations, the perpetual youth and the dynastic models.
