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Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World
This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
State-Contingent Debt Instruments for Sovereigns - Annexes
These annexes accompany the IMF Policy Paper State Contingent Debt Instruments for Sovereigns
Morocco
This paper assesses financial sector vulnerabilities, the policy oversight framework, bank resolution, and financial safety nets. The assessment is intended to help Moroccan government identify key sources of systemic risk in the financial sector and implement policies to enhance its resilience to shocks and contagion. Since the 2007 Financial Sector Assessment Program update, Morocco's financial system has grown in size and complexity, with increased links between the banking and insurance sectors and a significant expansion into sub-Saharan Africa. Although banks are adequately capitalized and profitable, with stable funding, they are vulnerable to large corporate defaults and deposit withdrawals. But the new banking law has helped in strengthening the banking sector.
Reviews of the Fund's Sovereign ARREARS Policies and Perimeter
This paper undertakes a comprehensive review of the Fund’s sovereign arrears policies. Staff assesses that the Fund’s Lending into Arrears to Private Creditors (LIA) policy (established in 1989 and last reviewed in 2002) remains broadly appropriate, while recommending some improvements given the experience gained over the last 20 years. Staff also sees merit in codifying the existing practice guiding the Fund in preemptive debt restructurings into a Fund policy, together with an amendment focusing on debt transparency. Given limited experience with the application of the LIOA policy (established in 2015), staff does not propose any amendments but only one restatement confirming current practice. Given recent developments in the international creditor community, staff proposes refining the Fund’s arrears policies with respect to multilateral creditors. Finally, recent developments raise questions about the perimeter between official bilateral and private claims, with significant implications for the Fund’s arrears policies.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019, Asia Pacific
Growth in Asia is expected to moderate to 5.0 percent in 2019 and 5.1 percent in 2020 (0.4 and 0.3 percentage point lower than projected last April, respectively). A marked deceleration in merchandise trade and investment, driven by distortionary trade measures and an uncertain policy environment, is weighing on activity, particularly in the manufacturing sector.
Brunei Darussalam
Brunei Darussalam: Statistical Appendix
Facing the Tides
This paper looks empirically at some economic effects of volatile exchange rates and financial conditions and examines policy responses for managing such volatility. It also sheds light on some economic costs that stem from volatile capital flows and exchange rates and analyzes how countries deploy their policy toolkits in response. The data-driven analysis should contribute to ongoing reflections about how to manage volatile capital flows and exchange rates both in Asian EMEs and more broadly.
Morocco
This paper discusses Morocco’s Second Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). Growth prospects for 2017 have improved, but nonagricultural growth is subdued. The current account deficit is projected to decline and international reserves are at a comfortable level. The IMF staff assesses that Morocco continues to meet the PLL qualification criteria and performs strongly in four out of the five areas of PLL qualification (external, monetary, financial, and data), does not substantially underperform in the fifth area (fiscal). The IMF staff recommends the completion of the second review under the PLL arrangement.
Policy Advice to Asia in the COVID-19 Era
The Asia-Pacific region was the first to be hit by the COVID-19 pandemic; it put a strain on its people and economies, and policymaking became exceptionally difficult. This departmental paper contains the assessment of the key challenges facing Asia at this critical juncture and policy advice to the region both to address the current challenges and to build the foundations for a more sustainable and inclusive future. The paper focuses on (1) adjusting to the COVID-19 shock, (2) using unconventional policies when policy space is limited, (3) dealing with debt, and (4) helping the vulnerable and greening the recovery. The paper first presents the different ways countries are adjusting to the COVID-19 shock.
