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IMF Staff papers
The transition strategy from administratively set interest rates to market rates is discussed. Despite worldwide trends toward financial liberalization, few monetary authorities are prepared to accept as reasonable any interest rate level that is market determined. The paper suggests some helpful indicators to assess the adequacy of interest rates and discusses factors that contribute to a smooth liberalization process. The main conclusion is that interest rate liberalization is not synonymous with laissez-faire policies, but requires the replacement of the administratively set interest rates by indirect monetary management techniques that operate through the market.
Monetary Policy and Public Finances
This paper considers the interaction between the private sector, the monetary authority, and the fiscal authority, and concludes that unrestricted central bank independence may not be an optimal way to collect seigniorage revenues or stabilize supply shocks. Moreover, the paper shows that the implementation of an optimal inflation target results in optimal shares of government finances—seigniorage, taxes, and the spending shortfall—from society’s point of view but still involves suboptimal stabilization. Even if price stability is the sole central bank objective, a positive inflation target has important implications for the government’s finances, as well as for stabilization.
Investment, Capital Accumulation, and Growth
This paper considers the potential variables that have determined economic growth in The Gambia during 1964–98. The results indicate that The Gambia’s aggregate production function exhibits increasing returns to scale, thus supporting the endogenous growth-type model. The impact of private investment—and thus private capital accumulation—on output is large and significant. Furthermore, increases in public investment boost output substantially. Finally, the effects associated with human capital accumulation are positive and statistically significant. The paper also estimates a series on total factor productivity growth that indicates that The Gambia was able to use its resources more efficiently.
How Long is the Long Run? A Dynamic Analysis of the Spanish Business Cycle
This paper studies the sources of Spanish business cycles. It assumes that Spanish output is affected by two types of shocks. The first one has permanent long-run effects on output and it is identified as a supply shock. The second one has only transitory effects on output and it is identified as a demand shock. Spain seems to have long business cycles, of about 15 years. As restrictive demand policies to control the inflation rate could prove painful and disappointing, supply side policies aimed at reducing rigidities in the product and labor market would be a better way to achieve the same objective.
Money Unmade
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russians have seen the ruble steadily lose ground to alternative means of payment such as barter and privately issued quasi-monies. Industry now collects as much as 70 percent of its receipts in nonmonetary form, leaving many firms with too little cash to pay salaries and taxes. In this ground-breaking book on the Russian economy, David Woodruff argues that Moscow's inability to control the nation's currency is not a carry-over from the Soviet past. Rather, the Russian government has failed to build the administrative capacity and political support demanded by monetary consolidation—a neglected but crucial aspect of capitalist statebuilding. Drawing ...
Coordinating Public Debt and Monetary Management During Financial Reforms
The paper analyzes the interplay between public debt and monetary management during financial reforms, and provides suggestions on collaboration between the central bank and the treasury to achieve common objectives. It discusses monetary policy and public debt at the onset and through different phases of a financial reform and emphasizes that many objectives of public debt and monetary management are mutually supportive. It recommends the setting up of units to deal with public debt issues both at the treasury and the central bank, as well as a committee to coordinate public debt and monetary management.
GEM
Over the past two years, the IMF staff has been developing a new multicountry macroeconomic model called the Global Economy Model (GEM). This paper explains why such a model is needed, how GEM differs from its predecessor model, and how the new features of the model can improve the IMF’s policy analysis. The paper is aimed at a general audience and avoids technical detail. It outlines the motivation, structure, strengths, and limitations of the model; examines three simulation exercises that have been completed; and discusses the future path of GEM.
Burkina Faso
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Annex analyzes the cotton sector in Burkina Faso. The paper highlights that the effect of the sharp drop in international prices of cotton since mid-2001 was much better managed in Burkina Faso than in most of the neighboring cotton-producing countries. The reforms implemented in the cotton sector since 1998 are summarized. The paper also emphasizes that this reform process has been successful is securing and expanding cotton production in Burkina Faso.
Measuring Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
This study introduces an index for measuring financial development and a set of six indices representing key characteristics of the financial systems in 38 sub-Saharan African countries. The results show that these countries have made good progress in improving and modernizing their financial systems during the last decade, particularly with regard to financial liberalization and the adoption of indirect instruments of monetary policy. In many countries, however, the range of financial products remains extremely limited, interest rate spreads are wide, capital adequacy ratios are insufficient, judicial loan recovery is a problem, and the share of nonperforming loans is large.
Financial Market Fragmentation and Reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa
FIAS Occasional Paper No. 9. Many developing countries have made dramatic progress in promoting private sector participation in their infrastructure sectors, especially with the help of foreign investors. However, this has not been the case in Southern and Eastern Africa, which have been perceived as relatively unattractive locations for investment. This paper describes the state of infrastructure in the region, takes stock of actual and potential projects in the various sectors, and analyzes the main impediments to private investment in the region's infrastructure services.
