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Towards a more accurate equity valuation
The accurate valuation of companies is essential for investors and managers. What appears to be straightforward from an academic perspective – discount expected future payoffs using adequate cost of capital – can be extremely difficult to implement. Using an empirical approach, Stefan Henschke investigates and improves the performance of different equity valuation methods. His research provides guidance for identifying inaccurate valuations and for improving the accuracy of valuations based on multiples.
Conditional and Unconditional Conservatism
Julia Nasev examines the impact of conservative accounting numbers on valuation estimates and on real economic decisions such as cost stickiness.
Company Valuation and Information in Analyst Forecasts
This thesis focuses on the three primitive value drivers of each company valuation model that is based on fundamental analysis: the discount rate, the expected future payoffs during the explicit forecasting period, and the terminal value at the end of the explicit forecasting period. While the first factor is analyzed theoretically by incorporating the government into the classical valuation framework, this thesis studies the other two factors by investigating forecasts made by professional investors, i.e. financial analysts. In the first part we show that the government's and the shareholders discount rate usually differ and analyze how the government's and shareholders different objectives lead to conflicts in the context of capital budgeting. The empirical part of this thesis shows that macroeconomic information is frequently used by financial analysts when updating their earnings expecations and that target price forecastsmade by financial analysts can be used to predict abnormal returns.
Determinants of Earnings Forecast Error, Earnings Forecast Revision and Earnings Forecast Accuracy
Earnings forecasts are ubiquitous in today’s financial markets. They are essential indicators of future firm performance and a starting point for firm valuation. Extremely inaccurate and overoptimistic forecasts during the most recent financial crisis have raised serious doubts regarding the reliability of such forecasts. This thesis therefore investigates new determinants of forecast errors and accuracy. In addition, new determinants of forecast revisions are examined. More specifically, the thesis answers the following questions: 1) How do analyst incentives lead to forecast errors? 2) How do changes in analyst incentives lead to forecast revisions?, and 3) What factors drive differences in forecast accuracy?
The Cost Stickiness Phenomenon
Understanding cost behavior is a fundamental element of cost accounting and the management of a firm. Deviating from the traditional assumption of symmetric cost behavior, numerous recent research studies show that costs are sticky, that is, they decrease less when sales fall than they increase when sales rise. Daniel Baumgarten comprehensively analyzes the cost stickiness phenomenon by discussing its development and all relevant findings presented in the research literature. Furthermore, he provides several suggestions for future research and discusses important implications of cost stickiness for fundamental analysis and analysts’ forecasts by means of two comprehensive empirical analyses.
Essays on the Economic Consequences of Mandatory IFRS Reporting around the world
Ulf Brüggemann discusses and empirically investigates the economic consequences of mandatory switch to IFRS. He provides evidence that cross-border investments by individual investors increased following the introduction of IFRS.
Confirming Dividend Changes and the Non-Monotonic Investor Revision of Earnings Persistence
The stylized facts that firms pay and investors react to dividends disregard dividend neutrality. Taking on the perspective that informational asymmetries are the central determinant for dividend value relevance, Christian Müller assumes that firm’s dividend decision conveys useful information to investors. He shows that investors use dividend changes to revise their a priori expectations about the persistence of a current earnings change. While his theoretical and empirical analyses generally imply that dividend changes constitute informative, but imperfect information signals, he further identifies situations in which they are substantial to investors. Christian Müller’s research comprehensively examines the informational role of dividend policy and provides new insights to the corresponding Bayesian investor learning process.
Unternehmensbewertungsverfahren
Michael Lorenz gibt einen Einblick in die herrschende Unternehmensbewertungspraxis und zeigt, wie die verschiedenen Verfahren auf Basis einer vollständigen und konsistenten Finanzplanung theoretisch zu erweitern sind, wenn die zur Herleitung notwendigen Bewertungsannahmen nicht erfüllt sind.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Trading Strategies
Die vorliegende Dissertationsschrift basiert auf der Grundidee, Aktien mit besonderem Kurspotential herauszufiltern. Prinzipiell bieten sich hierzu zwei Strategien an, die auf unterschiedlichen Prämissen fußen: die technische und die fundamentale Anlage. Die technische Anlage setzt auf die Fortsetzung bestehender Trends und verfolgt einen kurz- bis mittelfristigen Anlagehorizont. Die fundamentale Anlage hingegen zielt darauf ab, unterbewertete Aktien zu finden, um mittel- bis langfristig an deren Kursentwicklung hin zum fairen Preis zu partizipieren. In der Arbeit werden beide Anlagestrategien mit der Absicht kombiniert, komplementäre Effekte in Bezug auf die resultierenden Renditen zu er...
Stebel, DLControlling
Basierend auf der Prinzipal-Agenten-Theorie analysiert Peter Stebel Anreizprobleme aus Sicht des Dienstleistungsunternehmers beim Mitarbeiter und beim Kunden. Er leitet Empfehlungen zur Verhaltenssteuerung bei Dienstleistungen ab und überprüft diese anhand einer empirischen Studie.
