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Financial Conditions and Growth at Risk in the ECCU
We study the growth determinants in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), using the Growth at Risk (GaR) framework with a focus on financial variables. We find that excessive bank credit growth is associated with lower future real GDP growth in the medium term especially on the low quantiles of growth distribution. Moreover, worsening of both global financial conditions and external conditions are associated with lower future growth in the short term, especially at the high quantiles of growth distribution. Country-specific results are broadly in line with ECCU-wide results, with some variation potentially due to the strong Citizenship-By-Investment program inflows and lack of credit union data. The establishment of a macroprudential framework in the ECCU would need to pay close attention to credit growth not only of banks but also credit unions and continue to monitor global and external conditions.
Disagreement about Future Inflation: Understanding the Benefits of Inflation Targeting and Transparency
We estimate the determinants of disagreement about future inflation in a large and diverse sample of countries, focusing on the role of monetary policy frameworks. We offer novel insights that allow us to reconcile mixed findings in the literature on the benefits of inflation targeting regimes and central bank transparency. The reduction in disagreement that follows the adoption of inflation targeting is entirely due to increased central bank transparency. Since the benefits of increased transparency are non-linear, the gains from inflation targeting adoption have accrued mainly to countries that started from a low level of transparency. These have tended to be developing countries.
Paraguay
This paper focuses on the reform options for Paraguay’s fiscal responsibilities law as well as credit growth and banking system vulnerabilities. During the first year of Paraguay’s fiscal responsibility law, implementation has proven challenging, and a debate has emerged over whether its current design is excessively rigid. There are also important reputational costs to amending the framework. Paraguay has experienced rapid credit growth over the past decade. Reflecting these considerations, this chapter analyzes banks’ health and potential risks in Paraguay. Paraguay’s credit markets, as well as the rest of its financial system, are dominated by commercial banks.
Women at Work in Latin America and the Caribbean
Women across the world remain an underutilized resource in the labor force. Participation in the labor force averages around 80 percent for men but only 50 percent for women – nearly half of women’s productive potential remains untapped compared to one-fifth for men. Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), as a region, saw the largest gains in female labor force participation (LFP) in the world during the last two decades. Women in LAC are becoming increasingly active in paid work, closing the gap with men and catching up to their counterparts in advanced economies at an impressive rate. In this paper, we document the recent trends in female LFP and female education in the LAC region, discuss the size of potential gains to GDP from increasing female LFP and policies which could be deployed towards this goal.
Launching Export Accelerations in Latin America and the World
This paper investigates the determinants of sustained accelerations in goods and services exports. Strong predictors of export takeoffs include domestic and structural indicators such as lower macroeconomic uncertainty, improved quality of institutions, a depreciated exchange rate, and agricultural reforms. Lower tariffs, participation in global value chains and diversification also contribute to initiating export accelerations. The paper also finds heterogeneity, with somewhat different triggers for Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as for goods and services. Finally, despite the lack of a robust effect on output, export surges tend to be associated with lower post-acceleration unemployment and income inequality.
New Insights into ECCU's Tourism Sector Competitiveness
Tourism has become the main driver of economic growth and employment and the most important source of income in the ECCU. Preserving and, possibly, enhancing the competitiveness of the tourism product is key for these countries. Unfortunately, the evidence shows that tourism arrivals to the ECCU have been declining slightly while global demand for tourism is on the rise. The objective of this paper is to study the structural determinants of competitiveness for the ECCU, defined as the relative cost advantage over other touristic regions (Di Bella, Lewis, and Martin 2007). Using a gravity model, we show that proximity to North American and European markets is indeed an important competitive advantage for the ECCU. However, despite this advantage, and, in some cases, specialization in high-end tourism, regression analysis shows that arrivals to the ECCU are sensitive to relative prices. Our simulations show that mitigating supply-side constraints would improve the ECCU’s competitiveness and allow the region to regain global market shares.
Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy
Is the Mundell-Fleming trilemma alive and well? International co-movement of asset prices takes place alongside synchronized business cycles, complicating the identification of financial spillovers and assessments of monetary policy autonomy. A benchmark for interest rate comovement is to impose the null hypothesis that central banks respond only to the outlook for domestic inflation and output. We show that common approaches used to estimate interest rate spillovers tend to understate the degree of monetary autonomy enjoyed by small open economies with flexible exchange rates. We propose an empirical strategy that partials out those spillovers that are associated with impaired monetary autonomy. Using this approach, we revisit the predictions of the trilemma and find more compelling evidence that flexible exchange rates deliver monetary autonomy than prior work has suggested.
Explaining High Unemployment in ECCU Countries
In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates several factors that could explain them, finding that high unit labor costs, in a context of strong unionization, are significantly associated with high structural unemployment, while the global crisis added a cyclical component. Our analysis also suggests that high-paid jobs in the public and tourism sectors, which have been growing considerably in recent decades, could have increased the reservation wage and lowered labor force participation. We find no indication that high structural unemployment is related to the phase out of EU preferences on bananas/sugar exports or to a skills mismatch. As expected, unemployment has been substantially, but only temporarily fueled by large natural disasters.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in St. Vincent and the Grenadines in 2017 is expected to remain relatively flat. The current account deficit is expected to narrow reflecting additional profit repatriation by telecommunication companies. The domestic banking system remains stable, but credit to the private sector has been flat. The fiscal situation is projected to worsen substantially in 2017 owing to a projected decline in tax revenue after exceptional receipts in 2016 and higher outlays for transfers, subsidies and public investment. Growth is expected to pick up to 2.1 percent in 2018 and reach its potential over the medium-term.
Real Exchange Rates, Economic Complexity, and Investment
We show that the response of firm-level investment to real exchange rate movements varies depending on the production structure of the economy. Firms in advanced economies and in emerging Asia increase investment when the domestic currency weakens, in line with the traditional Mundell-Fleming model. However, in other emerging market and developing economies, as well as some advanced economies with a low degree of structural economic complexity, corporate investment increases when the domestic currency strengthens. This result is consistent with Diaz Alejandro (1963)—in economies where capital goods are mostly imported, a stronger real exchange rate reduces investment costs for domestic firms.
