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Assessment of outcomes based on the use of PIM-supported foresight modeling work, 2012-2018
This report presents results of a study to assess the use of foresight modeling tools and outputs produced since 2012 and funded through Flagship 1, Cluster 1.1 of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). The goal of this study is to examine how the tools and outputs of foresight modeling supported by PIM through Flagship 1 (hereafter “PIM-supported foresight modeling”) have been used by stakeholders. The study aims to identify as many uses of and outcomes from the PIM-supported foresight modeling as possible. It is by no means comprehensive, but it does cover usage by a wide range of stakeholders from across the CGIAR system, other international organizations, academia, and national governments.
Investing in Climate Adaptation Under Trade and Financing Constraints
Financially constrained governments, particularly in emerging and developing economies, tend to face a fiscal trade-off between adapting to climate change impacts and pursuing broader development goals. This trade-off is especially relevant in the agriculture sector, where investing in adaptation is critical to ensure food security amidst climate change. International trade can help alleviate this challenge and reduce adaptation investment needs by offsetting agricultural production shortages. However, in the presence of trade fragmentation, the adaptive role of trade diminishes, exacerbating food insecurity and increasing investment needs for adaptation. In this paper, we present a model to...
Gender research in the CGIAR research program on policies, institutions, and markets in 2018 and 2019
This report analyses PIM’s 391 peer-reviewed 2018 and 20191 publications. We highlight key gender findings and discuss the challenges faced by researchers in doing gender analysis, with a view to documenting lessons learned and improving practices. It is hoped that the gaps and strengths identified in this report will be useful inputs for future research under PIM and One CGIAR.
Drivers and disruptors shaping the future of agriculture and the food system in LAC: Climate change and trade tensions
Agri-food production remains vital to the economies in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Food systems are rapidly changing and are driven by income growth, (urban) population growth, shifts in dietary preferences, and agricultural productivity growth. Food systems are also under threat from disrupters like climate change and distorting policies (including trade wars). This paper makes two quantitative, forward-looking assessments for the future of food and agriculture in the LAC region. The first focuses on the long-term prospects - given projected pathways for the main drivers and under the threat of climate change. The second focuses on current vulnerability of LACs agri-food system t...
Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab Countries
The Arab region already suffers adverse consequences from climate change. This book provides information on climate change and its impact, as well as technical guidance on climate adaptation options for policy makers.
Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models
In this paper we present analysis on the recent historical trend in agriculture in the Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) region, along with analysis of recent historical trends in temperature and precipitation. We also present 5 climate models and describe the possible future climates associated with these. We use these climate models with crop models -- for seven crops -- and bioeconomic models to further assess the impact on agricultural productivity throughout the region and how the agricultural sector will transform through 2050. While we evaluate seven crops in detail, we note the key role that maize plays for the region, and we assess -- considering the regional and global impact of climate change -- how the role of maize will change over time and whether the change will be rapid enough to shift regional agriculture into a more vibrant sector. We find that while the relative importance of maize to farmers in the region will decline, out to 2050 maize will remain the dominant crop. Additional policies and investments will need to be implemented if the goal is to hasten the transition to higher value or more nutritious crops.
Nutrition-sensitive agriculture
A growing number of governments, donor agencies, and development organizations are committed to supporting nutrition-sensitive agriculture (NSA) to achieve their development goals. Although consensus exists on pathways through which agriculture may influence nutrition-related outcomes, empirical evidence on agriculture’s contribution to nutrition and how it can be enhanced is still weak. This paper reviews recent empirical evidence (since 2014), including findings from impact evaluations of a variety of NSA programs using experimental designs as well as observational studies that document linkages between agriculture, women’s empowerment, and nutrition. It summarizes existing knowledge regarding not only impacts but also pathways, mechanisms, and contextual factors that affect where and how agriculture may improve nutrition outcomes. The paper concludes with reflections on implications for agricultural programs, policies, and investments, and highlights future research priorities.
Handbook on Water Security
Water security has received increasing attention in the scientific and public policy communities in recent years. The Handbook on Water Security is a much-needed resource that helps the reader navigate between the differing interpretations of water security. It explains the various dimensions of the topic by approaching it both conceptually and thematically, as well as in relation to experiences in different regions of the world. The international contributors explore the various perspectives on water security to show that it has multiple meanings that cannot easily be reconciled. Topics discussed include: challenges from human security to consumerism, how trade policies can help to achieve water security in a transboundary setting, the potential of risk-based governance arrangements and the ecology of water security. Scholars and postgraduate students in the social sciences working on water-related issues will find this book to be of substantial interest. It will strongly appeal to policymakers and practitioners looking at the strengths and limitations of water security.
Global Development of Organic Agriculture
Agriculture and food systems, including organic agriculture, are undergoing a technological and structural modernization strongly influenced by growing globalization. Organic agricultural movements can be seen as a tangible effort towards more sustainable development. However, there are large differences between, on the one hand, industrialized farming and consumption based on global food chains and, on the other, smallholder farmers and resource poor people primarily linked in local food markets in low-income countries. This book provides an overview of the potential role of organic agriculture in a global perspective. The book discusses in-depth political ecology, ecological justice, ecological economics and free trade with new insights on the challenges for organic agriculture. This is followed by the potential role of organic agriculture for improving soil fertility, nutrient cycling and food security and reducing veterinary medicine use, together with discussions of research needs and the importance of non-certified organic agriculture.
