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China's Changing Trade and the Implications for the CLMV
China’s trade patterns are evolving. While it started in light manufacturing and the assembly of more sophisticated products as part of global supply chains, China is now moving up the value chain, “onshoring” the production of higher-value-added upstream products and moving into more sophisticated downstream products as well. At the same time, with its wages rising, it has started to exit some lower-end, more labor-intensive sectors. These changes are taking place in the broader context of China’s rebalancing—away from exports and toward domestic demand, and within the latter, away from investment and toward consumption—and as a consequence, demand for some commodity imports is ...
Cross-Border Transmission of Fiscal Shocks: The Role of Monetary Conditions
Fiscal stimulus was widely advocated during the global crisis, a period characterized by monetary policy constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) in many countries, in part because of expected positive spillovers. Standard New Keynesian models predict the cross-border transmission of fiscal shocks is stronger when monetary policy is constrained in recipients. However, the empirical evidence is scarce. This paper bridges this gap by looking at the impact of fiscal shocks in systemic (source) economies on output and demand components in a large group of (recipient) countries, under different monetary policy conditions. Empirical results are compared to simulations with a state-of-the-art estimated open-economy New Keynesian model. Our results corroborate model predictions, finding larger spillovers when recipients are at the ELB, driven by stronger responses of investment and consumption relative to normal times
World Economic Outlook, April 2016
Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors tha...
China’s Growth
The paper analyzes the recent growth dynamics in China, evaluating both cyclical positions and long-term growth prospects. The analysis shows that financial cycles play a more important role than traditional inflation-based cycles in shaping the dynamics of growth. Currently, the ‘finance-neutral’ gap—our measure of the financial cycle—is large and positive, reflecting imbalances accumulated in the economy since the Global Financial Crisis. A period of slower growth is therefore both likely and needed in the near term to restore the economy to equilibrium. In the medium term, growth will slow as China moves closer to the technology frontier, but a steadfast implementation of reforms can ensure that China follows the path of the “Asia Tigers” and achieves successful convergence to high-income status.
Tuvalu
Tuvalu is one of the smallest and most isolated countries in the world. With a population of some 11,000 people living on 26 square kilometers, Tuvalu is more than 3,000 kilometers away from its nearest major external market (New Zealand). The country faces tremendous challenges stemming from its remoteness, lack of scale economies, weak institutional capacity, and, above all, climate change and rising sea levels, which threaten the country’s very existence. (Appendix III)
Turn of the Tortoise
The Turn of the Tortoise looks at the challenges that Indian government and business sectors face as it looks towards the future.
China’s Uneven and Combined Development
This book mobilises the theory of uneven and combined development to uncover the geopolitical economic drivers of China’s rise. The purpose is to explain the formation and trajectory of its economic ‘accumulation system’ — which remains a confounding hybrid of statist and neoliberal forms of capitalism — as the outcome of China’s geopolitical engagement of the USA during the late stages of the Cold War, and its participation in manufacturing global production networks (GPNs). Fear of geopolitical catastrophe drove China to open its economy, while GPNs enabled China to generate substantial export surpluses which could be recycled through state-owned banks as cheap credit and subsi...
Post-Kyoto International Climate Policy
"Research from the Harvard Project on International Climate Agreements."--T.p.
Material Science And Environmental Engineering - The Proceedings Of 2016 International Workshop (Iwmsee2016)
The 2016 International Workshop on Material Science and Environmental Engineering (IWMSEE2016) was held in Wuhan, Hubei, China from January 22nd to January 24th, 2016. Out of the 214 submissions from various parts of the world, only 85 papers were chosen by the Technical Program Committee.IWMSEE2016 aims to bring together researchers, engineers and students from the areas of Material Science and Environmental Engineering to share and discuss the output of their research and the progress made, in the areas of Material Science and Engineering, Environmental Protection and Sustainable Development, Renewable Energy and Building Energy Saving, Environmental Science and Engineering, Modeling, Simulation and Control System and Safety Management.The conference program is extremely rich and profound and features high-impact presentations of selected papers and additional ground-breaking contributions. All the selected papers demonstrate elements of originality, significance and clarity for the purpose of this conference.
China’s Labor Market in the “New Normal”
As China implements reforms under the “new normal,” maintaining stability in the labor market is a priority. The country’s demography and labor dynamics are changing, after benefitting in past decades from ample cheap labor. So far, the labor market appears to be resilient, even as growth slows, driven in part by expansion of the services sector. Migrant flows and possible labor hoarding in overcapacity sectors may also help explain this. Yet, while the latter two factors help serve as shock absorbers— contributing to labor market stability in the short term—if they persist, they may delay the needed adjustment process, contributing to an inefficient allocation of resources and cur...
