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Growth Convergence and Public Finances of India and Its States
Lack of convergence in per capita income across Indian states requires greater resources for lower-income states for investment and improved public services. Central and state governments need to raise revenue (both tax and non-tax), dismantle the administered pricing mechanism, reduce subsidies, and reorient expenditure toward national and state-level priorities. This is essential to ensure India remains on a sustainable fiscal path with higher growth, given the high public debt at the centre and state level. The observed wide differences in fiscal parameters across states require a tailored policy for each state. The large stock of debt of several states puts at risk the adequate financing of growth-enchancing expenditures.
Fintech: Financial Inclusion Or Exclusion?
This paper examines the role of Fintech in financial inclusion. Using Global Findex data and emerging fintech indicators, we find that Fintech has a higher positive correlation with digital financial inclusion than traditional measures of financial inclusion. In the second stage of our empirical investigation, we examine the key factors that are correlated with the Fletcher School’s three digital divide – gender divide, class (rich-poor) divide and rural divide. The results indicate that greater use of fintech is significantly associated with a narrowing of the class divide and rural divide but there was no impact on the gender divide. These findings imply that Fintech alone may not be sufficient to close the gender gap in access to financial services. Fintech development may need to be complemented with targeted policy initiatives aimed at addressing the gender gap directly, and at changing attitudes and social norms across demographics.
The Singapore Economy
Even after achieving the status of a developed economy, many economies face other challenges which may include economic stagnation and income inequality. The book looks at how a mature economy can continue to weather challenges and how the growth of living standards will depend on productivity growth through Singapore’s experience. After Singapore's rapid economic transformation, the nation is at a crossroads. The book explains how productivity growth in turn depends on technological diffusion from abroad as well as indigenous innovation. It also examines how the design of policy to develop indigenous innovation to promote economic dynamism may come with creative destruction and disruptive effects on jobs and wages. The Singapore Economy provides insight into how we can maintain social cohesion and establish a political equilibrium that embraces the new sources of growth through policy formulation for economic inclusion.
The Monetary Policy Credibility Channel and the Amplification Effects in a Semi-Structural Model
The paper extends a standard semi-structural model to account for nonlinear and asymmetric effects of monetary policy credibility. In our setting, central bank credibility is proportional to the deviation of inflation expectations from the announced inflation target, with positive deviations being more costly compared to negative ones. A loss in policy credibility as a result of shocks leads to a more persistent, backward-looking inflation process, and is associated with lower output. We find that the extended model with credibility effects matches well the key macroeconomic data over specific past episodes for Indonesia and Philippines and consider its adaptation to integrated policy frameworks as an area for further exploration.
Financial and Legal Constraints to Firm Growth
Using a unique firm-level survey data base, covering fifty four countries, the authors investigate whether different financial, legal, and corruption issues that firms report as constraints, actually affect their growth rates. The results show that the extent to which these factors constrain a firm's growth depends very much on its size, and that it is consistently the smallest firms that are most adversely affected by all these constraints. Firm growth is more affected by reported constraints in countries with underdeveloped financial, and legal systems, and higher corruption. So, policy measures to improve financial, and legal development, and reduce corruption are well justified in promot...
2018 Review of the Fund's Capacity Development Strategy
"Capacity development (CD) is one of the Fund’s three core activities and has grown in importance in recent years. It supports member countries’ efforts to build the institutions and capacity necessary to formulate and implement sound economic policies, thereby complementing the Fund’s surveillance and lending mandates. Member countries, partners, and external commentators give the Fund high marks for the quality of its CD. At the same time, efforts need to continue to strengthen Fund CD to serve members’ current and evolving needs. The 2018 CD Strategy Review examines progress under the Fund’s 2013 CD Strategy and proposes a CD strategy for the next five years. It notes substantia...
Cybersecurity Risk Supervision
This paper highlights the emerging supervisory practices that contribute to effective cybersecurity risk supervision, with an emphasis on how these practices can be adopted by those agencies that are at an early stage of developing a supervisory approach to strengthen cyber resilience. Financial sector supervisory authorities the world over are working to establish and implement a framework for cyber risk supervision. Cyber risk often stems from malicious intent, and a successful cyber attack—unlike most other sources of risk—can shut down a supervised firm immediately and lead to systemwide disruptions and failures. The probability of attack has increased as financial systems have become more reliant on information and communication technologies and as threats have continued to evolve.
Asian Family Businesses
The global economy is predominantly driven by family businesses that provide the largest source of long-term employment in most countries. In the Asian region, family members amongst the 60% of large corporations own a significant share of the equity and can influence key decisions. This phenomenon sets the family enterprises with various challenges and opportunities as any other non-family run enterprises but in a more complex dimension. This book presents a collection of cases that addresses three key challenges faced in many of the family enterprises in Asia; Succession, Governance and Innovation. The narration of the cases also offers reader tips about good practices among the Asian families such as effective family governance mechanism, development of innovation and entrepreneurial mindsets across generations, importance of family culture. This case book is essential reading for anyone interested in addressing the needs of business families in the region.
Adding Indonesia to the Global Projection Model
This is the fifth of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit to which economists have access for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we add Indonesia to a previously estimated small quarterly projection model of the US, euro area, and Japanese economies. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties.
