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Thunderstorm Forecasting
This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. To ensure a quality reading experience, this work has been proofread and republished using a format that seamlessly blends the original graphical elements with text in an easy-to-read typeface. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.
Improving Cape Canaveral's Next-Day Thunderstorm Forecasting Using a Meso-ETA Model-Based Index
Reliable thunderstorm forecasts are essential to safety and resource protection at Cape Canaveral. Current methods of forecasting day-2 thunderstorms provide little improvement over forecasting by persistence alone and are therefore in need of replacement. This research focused on using the mesoscale eta model to develop an index for improved forecasting of day-2 thunderstorms. Logistic regression techniques were used to regress the occurrence of a thunderstorm at Cape Canaveral against day-2 forecast variables output, or derived, from the mesoscale eta model. Accuracy and bias scores were calculated for the forecasts made by the regression equations, and the forecast results were compared to persistence and to model-based forecasts of the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). For cases where the results were shown to be statistically significant, the forecasts made using the logistic regression equations (called the Eta Thunderstorm Index (ETI)) consistently outperformed both persistence and the NPTI. Due to the small sample size used in this research, further study on this topic is encouraged.
A Thunderstorm Prediction Technique Based on a Perfect-prog Approach
"We have developed a thunderstorm prediction technique for use with a mesoscale model to satisfy Air Force Weather's Theater Battle Management (TBM) stated requirement for maximum cloud tops and coverage. The prediction technique is to be implemented in the Global Theater/Weather Analysis and Prediction system (GTWAPS). A perfect-prog approach was implemented using synoptic and subsynoptic-scale data for diagnosis and short-range probability forecasts. Future work is discussed, including, most importantly, follow-on testing and refinements of the techniques." -- Report documentation page.
Thunderstorms
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Predicting Storms
PREDICTING STORMS - The Adventure Begins Third Edition 2024. BY ROBERT ELLIS The full colour book shows ordinary people how to predict a storm long before it is even visible to radar or satellite. Many lives can be saved by using the simple rules explained in the book. As many as 500,000 people worldwide may die in large storms each year. Traditional weather forecasts can currently only give around 13 minutes' lead time for tornadoes spawned by supercell thunderstorms. The Tornado Early Warning Rule published in this book gives at least 5 hours early warning of a deadly tornado from its rigid straight-line signature on a barograph. Your barometer will give you at least 24 hours early warning...
Improving Cape Canaveral's Day-2 Thunderstorm Forecasting Using Meso-ETANumerical Model Output
The 45th Weather Squadron (WS) is responsible for the protection of billions of dollars worth of Air Force and NASA equipment from weather hazards. They produce a seven day planning forecast as one tool to support the space launch community. Improving this forecast can potentially save millions of dollars of government funds. This research focuses on the feasibility of improving the day two thunderstorm forecast by applying Meso Eta numerical forecasts to the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). The NPTI is currently used by the 45th WS for same day thunderstorm probability forecasting utilizing the morning radiosonde as input. The perfect prognosis assumption was used when assessing t...
