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Improving Cape Canaveral's Next-Day Thunderstorm Forecasting Using a Meso-ETA Model-Based Index
Reliable thunderstorm forecasts are essential to safety and resource protection at Cape Canaveral. Current methods of forecasting day-2 thunderstorms provide little improvement over forecasting by persistence alone and are therefore in need of replacement. This research focused on using the mesoscale eta model to develop an index for improved forecasting of day-2 thunderstorms. Logistic regression techniques were used to regress the occurrence of a thunderstorm at Cape Canaveral against day-2 forecast variables output, or derived, from the mesoscale eta model. Accuracy and bias scores were calculated for the forecasts made by the regression equations, and the forecast results were compared to persistence and to model-based forecasts of the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). For cases where the results were shown to be statistically significant, the forecasts made using the logistic regression equations (called the Eta Thunderstorm Index (ETI)) consistently outperformed both persistence and the NPTI. Due to the small sample size used in this research, further study on this topic is encouraged.
A Thunderstorm Prediction Technique Based on a Perfect-prog Approach
"We have developed a thunderstorm prediction technique for use with a mesoscale model to satisfy Air Force Weather's Theater Battle Management (TBM) stated requirement for maximum cloud tops and coverage. The prediction technique is to be implemented in the Global Theater/Weather Analysis and Prediction system (GTWAPS). A perfect-prog approach was implemented using synoptic and subsynoptic-scale data for diagnosis and short-range probability forecasts. Future work is discussed, including, most importantly, follow-on testing and refinements of the techniques." -- Report documentation page.
Improving Cape Canaveral's Day-2 Thunderstorm Forecasting Using Meso-ETANumerical Model Output
The 45th Weather Squadron (WS) is responsible for the protection of billions of dollars worth of Air Force and NASA equipment from weather hazards. They produce a seven day planning forecast as one tool to support the space launch community. Improving this forecast can potentially save millions of dollars of government funds. This research focuses on the feasibility of improving the day two thunderstorm forecast by applying Meso Eta numerical forecasts to the Neumann-Pfeffer Thunderstorm Index (NPTI). The NPTI is currently used by the 45th WS for same day thunderstorm probability forecasting utilizing the morning radiosonde as input. The perfect prognosis assumption was used when assessing t...
Thunderstorms
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A Thunderstorm Prediction Technique Based on a Perfect-Prog Approach
We have developed a thunderstorm prediction technique for use with a mesoscale model to satisfy Air Force Weather's Theater Battle Management (TBM) stated requirement for maximum cloud tops and coverage. The prediction technique is to be implemented in the Global Theater/Weather Analysis and Prediction System (GTWAPS). A perfect-prog approach was implemented using synoptic and subsynoptic-scale data for diagnosis and short-range probability forecasts. Future work is discussed, including, most importantly, follow-on testing and refinements of the technique.
