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The Systemic Impact of Debt Default in a Multilayered Global Network Model
The world has become more interconnected over the past few decades. Against this backdrop, economic and financial contagion following adverse shocks can have a severe impact on the global economy. How systemic can the effects of contagion be? What specific transmission channels are involved? What is their relative importance? We address these questions using a multilayered global network model of contagion that simulates the impact of sovereign debt default on the global economy. We also develop a measure of global systemic risk and use bank stress testing techniques to quantify the systemic impact of the shock and the extent of contagion on the global economy. Our model shows that economic and financial contagion are highly non-linear, and many bystander economies can experience significant negative effects as the initial default is spread through the network. This suggests that many economies might be systemically more important than what conventional measures of size or openness might suggest.
Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Through an Industry-Level Differential Approach
By combining industry-level data on output and prices with monetary policy rates for a panel of 88 countries, this paper analyzes how the effects of monetary policy vary with certain industry characteristics. Next to being interesting in their own right, our results are informative on the importance of various transmission mechanisms (as they are expected to vary systematically with the included characteristics). Rather than relying on standard monetary policy shock identification, we overcome the endogeneity problem by taking a differential approach (interacting our monetary policy measure with industry-level characteristics). Our results suggest that monetary contractions reduce output by more in industries featuring assets that are more difficult to collateralize (as predicted by the balance sheet channel) and in industries more reliant on international trade (as predicted by the exchange rate channel). Consistent with the financial accelerator mechanism, we find that the balance sheet channel becomes stronger during bad times. At the same time, we do not find evidence supporting the traditional interest rate channel of monetary policy; the same goes for the cost channel.
Shanghai Filmmaking
In Shanghai Filmmaking, Huang Xuelei invites readers to go on an intimate, detailed, behind-the-scenes tour of the world of early Chinese cinema. She paints a nuanced picture of the Mingxing Motion Picture Company, the leading Chinese film studio in the 1920s and 1930s, and argues that Shanghai filmmaking involved a series of border-crossing practices. Shanghai filmmaking developed in a matrix of global cultural production and distribution, and interacted closely with print culture and theatre. People from allegedly antagonistic political groupings worked closely with each other to bring a new form of visual culture and a new body of knowledge to an audience in and outside China. By exploring various border crossings, this book sheds new light on the power of popular cultural production during China’s modern transformation.
Unveiling the Hidden Impact of Urban Land Rents on Total Factor Productivity
This paper addresses the puzzling decline of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) levels in rapidly growing economies, such as Singapore, despite advancements in technology and high GDP per capita growth. The paper proposes that TFP growth is not negative; instead, standard growth decompositions have underestimated TFP growth by overestimating the contribution of capital, failing to account for the substantial part of capital income directed to urban land rents. This leads to an overestimation of changes in capital stock's contribution to growth and thereby an underestimation of TFP growth. A revised decomposition suggests that TFP growth in economies with high land rents and rapid capital stock growth, such as Singapore, has been considerably underestimated: TFP levels have not declined but increased rapidly.
Barbados: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement, Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Barbados
Barbados has made good progress in implementing its Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, rebuild reserves, and increase growth. International reserves have increased to US$1.3 billion at end-March 2021, supported by IFI loans. This, and a successful 2018-19 public debt restructuring, have helped rebuild confidence in the country’s macroeconomic framework. However, a virtual standstill in the tourism sector during the pandemic took a significant toll in 2020, with the economy contracting by 18 percent. While Barbados was successful in containing the outbreak during 2020, a surge in COVID-19 cases in early 2021 resulted in the country’s second national lockdown in February. Economic growth is projected at 3 percent for 2021 premised on a modest recovery of tourism in the second half of the year, but the outlook remains highly uncertain, and risks are elevated, also in light of the possible impact of recent volcanic activity in neighboring Saint Vincent.
Digital Money, Cross-Border Payments, International Reserves, and the Global Financial Safety Net
The rapid advent of digital money (DM) and assets raises questions about its implications for the functioning of the international monetary system (IMS). The low transaction costs of digital technologies, their accessibility and ease of automation, and their integration into existing digital services may bring opportunities in the form of higher financial interconnectedness and inclusion but may also add to risks. This paper explores the possible implications of DM for the IMS from the perspective of cross-border payments, international reserves and the supply of global safe assets, and the global financial safety net. To help inform the discussion, the paper presents empirical analyses of the effect of payment efficiency on international currency adoption for payment/transaction purposes as well as on reserve currency holdings, along with an illustrative modeling scenario of a DM-induced shock for the potential demand for global financial safety net resources.
Regional Economic Outlook, Europe, October 2024
Europe’s economy is recovering, benefiting from a strong crises’ response. Yet, the recovery is falling short of its full potential. Uncertainty about persistent core inflation, policy directions, and geopolitical conflicts is dampening the near-term outlook. In the longer term, perennially weak productivity growth—a result of limited scale and business dynamism–-amid new headwinds from fragmentation and climate change are holding back growth potential. Steady macro policies are needed to navigate an uncertain environment. This requires transitioning to a neutral monetary policy stance and reducing fiscal deficits without jeopardizing the recovery. Policymakers also need to tackle barriers to higher potential growth. A larger and more integrated single market for goods, services, and capital will incentivize investment, innovation, and generate scale benefits. Deepening European integration will also strengthen economic resilience by insulating businesses and labor markets from global fragmentation pressures. These are formidable policy challenges, but now is the time to bring Europe to its full potential.
Barbados: Seventh Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; and Staff Report
Despite significant economic shocks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, twin natural disasters, and the war in Ukraine, Barbados has made good progress in implementing its Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, rebuild reserves, and increase growth. International reserves increased to US$1.5 billion at end-2021 supported by IFI loans. This, and a successful 2018-19 public debt restructuring, helped rebuild confidence in the country’s macroeconomic framework. Economic growth is projected at 11 percent for 2022 premised on a robust recovery of tourism, which is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. The outlook nonetheless r...
Rebirth: Divine Dragon Master
This was a world of deer cauldrons without Wei Xiaobao. This was a legendary story of the Divine Dragon Sect dominating the world!
Switzerland
Switzerland: Selected Issues
