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Stress Testing the Global Economy to Climate Change-Related Shocks in Large and Interconnected Economies
We stress test the global economy to extreme climate change-related shocks on large and interconnected economies. Our analysis (i) identifies large and interconnected economies vulnerable to climate change-related shocks; (ii) estimates these economies’ external financing needs-at-risk due to these shocks, and (iii) quantifies the spillovers to the global economy using a global network model. We show that large and interconnected economies vulnerable to climate change could trigger a drain of $1.8 trillion in international reserves (2 percent of 2019’s global GDP). Domestic and multilateral macroeconomic policies can help reduce these global lossess to about $0.8 trillion. The scenario highlights the importance of considering global spillovers when assessing the impact of climate change-related shocks.
How Have IMF Priorities Evolved? A Text Mining Approach
This paper assess how priorities of the IMF’s membership have evolved over the past two decades, by using text mining techniques on a unique dataset combining IMFC communiqués and constituency statements. Our results reveal significant variation in priorities across time and constituencies. Statements can be characterized by the weight which they place on three key priorities: (i) growth; (ii) debt and development; and (iii) crisis management and quota reform. Sentiment analysis techniques also show that addressing climate change is a topic which is viewed positively by an increasing number of constituencies.
ECB Spillovers to Emerging Europe: The Past and Current Experience
We provide new evidence on the spillover effects of ECB monetary policy shocks to emerging European economies, using a combination of empirical methods and model-based simulations and focusing on spillovers from interest rate and balance sheet policies implemented by the ECB. We consider an event study set around the ECB policy announcement in June 2022 and also use local projections to estimate regional spillovers in a panel of 16 Emerging European countries spanning 1999 to 2022. Identifying ECB monetary policy shocks as the unexplained component of changes in the three-month Euribor futures rate, we find that ECB monetary policy tightening induces more than one-for-one changes in governme...
Revisiting the Monetary Transmission Mechanism Through an Industry-Level Differential Approach
By combining industry-level data on output and prices with monetary policy rates for a panel of 88 countries, this paper analyzes how the effects of monetary policy vary with certain industry characteristics. Next to being interesting in their own right, our results are informative on the importance of various transmission mechanisms (as they are expected to vary systematically with the included characteristics). Rather than relying on standard monetary policy shock identification, we overcome the endogeneity problem by taking a differential approach (interacting our monetary policy measure with industry-level characteristics). Our results suggest that monetary contractions reduce output by more in industries featuring assets that are more difficult to collateralize (as predicted by the balance sheet channel) and in industries more reliant on international trade (as predicted by the exchange rate channel). Consistent with the financial accelerator mechanism, we find that the balance sheet channel becomes stronger during bad times. At the same time, we do not find evidence supporting the traditional interest rate channel of monetary policy; the same goes for the cost channel.
The Systemic Impact of Debt Default in a Multilayered Global Network Model
The world has become more interconnected over the past few decades. Against this backdrop, economic and financial contagion following adverse shocks can have a severe impact on the global economy. How systemic can the effects of contagion be? What specific transmission channels are involved? What is their relative importance? We address these questions using a multilayered global network model of contagion that simulates the impact of sovereign debt default on the global economy. We also develop a measure of global systemic risk and use bank stress testing techniques to quantify the systemic impact of the shock and the extent of contagion on the global economy. Our model shows that economic and financial contagion are highly non-linear, and many bystander economies can experience significant negative effects as the initial default is spread through the network. This suggests that many economies might be systemically more important than what conventional measures of size or openness might suggest.
Digital Money, Cross-Border Payments, International Reserves, and the Global Financial Safety Net
The rapid advent of digital money (DM) and assets raises questions about its implications for the functioning of the international monetary system (IMS). The low transaction costs of digital technologies, their accessibility and ease of automation, and their integration into existing digital services may bring opportunities in the form of higher financial interconnectedness and inclusion but may also add to risks. This paper explores the possible implications of DM for the IMS from the perspective of cross-border payments, international reserves and the supply of global safe assets, and the global financial safety net. To help inform the discussion, the paper presents empirical analyses of the effect of payment efficiency on international currency adoption for payment/transaction purposes as well as on reserve currency holdings, along with an illustrative modeling scenario of a DM-induced shock for the potential demand for global financial safety net resources.
Shanghai Filmmaking
In Shanghai Filmmaking, Huang Xuelei invites readers to go on an intimate, detailed, behind-the-scenes tour of the world of early Chinese cinema. She paints a nuanced picture of the Mingxing Motion Picture Company, the leading Chinese film studio in the 1920s and 1930s, and argues that Shanghai filmmaking involved a series of border-crossing practices. Shanghai filmmaking developed in a matrix of global cultural production and distribution, and interacted closely with print culture and theatre. People from allegedly antagonistic political groupings worked closely with each other to bring a new form of visual culture and a new body of knowledge to an audience in and outside China. By exploring various border crossings, this book sheds new light on the power of popular cultural production during China’s modern transformation.
Switzerland
Switzerland: Selected Issues
Rebirth: Divine Dragon Master
This was a world of deer cauldrons without Wei Xiaobao. This was a legendary story of the Divine Dragon Sect dominating the world!
Switzerland
Growth is recovering gradually (projected at 1.3 percent in 2024) after slowing in 2023 (0.8 percent). A tight monetary stance and disinflation abroad have brought inflation within SNB’s 0–2 percent price stability range, and the SNB lowered its policy rate in March 2024, ahead of other major central banks. The external current account has remained in surplus but declined, while the general government surplus declined in 2023. Fiscal fundamentals are strong with low debt levels, but mounting spending pressures and remaining future financing gaps in the pension system, including stemming from the recent vote on a 13th monthly pension payment, need to be addressed. The state-facilitated acquisition of Credit Suisse (CS) by UBS stabilized markets, and the authorities have published reform proposals based on their review of the transaction and the TBTF framework. Negotiations with the EU restarted. Climate policy progressed. Medium-term challenges include labor shortages and skill gaps.
