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We analyze a range of macrofinancial indicators to extract signals about cyclical systemic risk across 107 economies over 1995–2020. We construct composite indices of underlying liquidity, solvency and mispricing risks and analyze their patterns over the financial cycle. We find that liquidity and solvency risk indicators tend to be counter-cyclical, whereas mispricing risk ones are procyclical, and they all lead the credit cycle. Our results lend support to high-level accounts that risks were underestimated by stress indicators in the run-up to the 2008 global financial crisis. The policy implications of conflicting risk signals would depend on the phase of the credit cycle.
Durante las primeras dos décadas del siglo, la economía de la República Dominicana experimentó tasas de crecimiento positivas por encima del promedio alcanzado por los países de la región. Durante ese mismo periodo, el sector agropecuario experimentó una tasa promedio de crecimiento anual positiva, pero a un ritmo menor que otras actividades económicas. Para el período 2011-2015, la tasa anual promedio del PIB agrícola fue de 4,39%. Las exportaciones de productos agrícolas en la República Dominicana han aumentado en los últimos 15 años alcanzando un valor de US$2.647 millones en el año 2015 y representando más del 25% del total de las exportaciones. El sector genera un 12,81%...
We explore the early warning properties of a composite indicator which summarizes signals from a range of asset price growth and asset price volatility indicators to capture mispricing of risk in asset markets. Using a quarterly panel of 108 advanced and emerging economies over 1995-2017, we show that the combination of rapid asset price growth and low asset price volatility is a good predictor of future financial crises. Elevated levels of our indicator significantly increase the probability of entering a crisis within the next three years relative to normal times when the indicator is not elevated. The indicator outperforms credit-based early warning metrics, a result robust to prediction horizons, methodological choices, and income groups. Our results are consistent with the idea that measures based on asset prices can offer critical information about systemic risk levels to policymakers.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 20th International Conference on Parallel and Distributed Computing, Euro-Par 2014, held in Porto, Portugal, in August 2014. The 68 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 267 submissions. The papers are organized in 15 topical sections: support tools environments; performance prediction and evaluation; scheduling and load balancing; high-performance architectures and compilers; parallel and distributed data management; grid, cluster and cloud computing; green high performance computing; distributed systems and algorithms; parallel and distributed programming; parallel numerical algorithms; multicore and manycore programming; theory and algorithms for parallel computation; high performance networks and communication; high performance and scientific applications; and GPU and accelerator computing.
Sustainable value management reveals a new space for studying business models. The traditional approach is based on the assumption that the goal of any business is to make money. All decisions regarding supply and production should be made to maximize profit. The discrepancy in creating non-economic value is sometimes the result of separating ownership from control over an enterprise. Although shareholders are interested in maximizing profit, management that actually makes decisions can also pursue other goals. In addition to economic aspects, the management intentions of modern managers are also influenced by factors arising from the organizational culture built, co-created within the organ...
Progress in Optics Volume 43.
This monograph emphasizes the many facets of bacterial evolution as impacted by bacterial interactions with phages, as well as, to a lesser degree, the evolutionary impact of phages on other organisms, including other phages. The book starts with a general overview of bacteriophages. Topics discussed in detail include but are not limited to mutagenesis, migration, natural selection and genetic drift as the drivers of evolution as well as an extensive discussion from the author’s unique perspective on phage ecology.
Cancer Genetics is a collection of chapters covering the key recent developments in cancer genetics which have an impact on clinical care. The target audience will be physicians and scientists who need to be apprised on the most recent developments in the field.
The National Strategy for Combating Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria, published in 2014, sets out a plan for government work to mitigate the emergence and spread of resistant bacteria. Direction on the implementation of this strategy is provided in five-year national action plans, the first covering 2015 to 2020, and the second covering 2020 to 2025. Combating Antimicrobial Resistance and Protecting the Miracle of Modern Medicine evaluates progress made against the national strategy. This report discusses ways to improve detection of resistant infections and estimate the risk to human health from environmental sources of resistance. In addition, the report considers the effect of agricultural practices on human and animal health and animal welfare and ways these practices could be improved, and advises on key drugs and diseases for which animal-specific test breakpoints are needed.
Mobile money services have rapidly expanded across emerging and developing economies and enabled new ways through which households and firms can conduct payments, save and send remittances. We explore how mobile money use can impact economic outcomes in India using granular data on transactions from Paytm, one of the largest mobile money service provider in India with over 400 million users. We exploit the period around the demonetization policy, which prompted a surge in mobile money adoption, and analyze how mobile money affects traditional risk-sharing arrangements. Our main finding is that mobile money use increases the resilience to shocks by dampening the impact of rainfall shocks on n...