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Knowing When You Do Not Know
Microeconomic shocks are rarely predictable and their employment, poverty and distributional impacts are difficult to track because real-time data are typically not available. However, measuring these impacts is for designing effective and timely policy response.
Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of Reforms
"Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) is an approach used increasingly by governments, civil society organizations, the World Bank, and other development partners to examine the distributional impacts of policy reforms on the well-being of different stakeholders groups, particularly the poor and vulnerable. PSIA has an important role in the elaboration and implementation of poverty reduction strategies in developing countries because it promotes evidence-based policy choices and fosters debate on policy reform options. Poverty and Social Impact Analysis of Reforms presents a collection of case studies that illustrate the spectrum of sectors and policy reforms to which PSIA can be applie...
Calm After the Storms
With the profound political and economic changes of the 1970s and 1980s behind it, and regardless of its trade patterns, Chile's income distribution is, for the moment, calm. Education may be the most important variable affecting the structure of, and changes in, inequality in Chile. After rising in the 1960s, falling in the early 1970s, and rising again from the mid-1970s to the mid-1980s, income inequality seems to have stabilized in Chile since about 1987. With the stormy period of economic and political reform of the 1970s and 1980s well over, no statistically significant Lorenz dominance results could be detected after 1987. Scalar measures of inequality confirm this picture of stabilit...
The Endogenization of Government Behaviour in Macroeconomic Models
In chapter 2 we concluded that the present public choice and marxist approaches to the study of political processes, as far as relevant for the analysis of economic policy making, are unsatisfactory, for reasons of incoherency, insufficient empirical support, and lack of specificity~ It was suggested that a different approach to the subject might be fruitful. To that purpose, we now turn our attention to the so-called interest function approach to the study of politico-economic phenomena, that has been developed by Van Winden (1983). See also Van Winden (1987), Van Velthoven and Van Winden (1986). Without paying too much attention to the specific conduct of and intricate relationships betwee...
Pro-growth, Pro-poor
"Is a pro-growth strategy always the best pro-poor strategy? To address this issue, Lopez provides an empirical evaluation of the impact of a series of pro-growth policies on inequality and headcount poverty. He relies on a large macroeconomic data set and estimate dynamic panel models that allows him to differentiate between the short- and long-run impacts of the policies under consideration on growth, inequality, and poverty. The author's findings indicate that regardless of their impact on inequality, pro-growth policies lead to lower poverty levels in the long run. However, he also finds evidence indicating that some of these policies may lead to higher inequality and, under plausible as...
Social Funds
This study reviews the development effectiveness of social fund projects and considers the implications for their future support by the World Bank. It finds that the performance of such projects has improved over time in many respects. However, although they have been highly effective in delivering small-scale infrastructure, they have been less successful in achieving consistent improvements in outcomes and welfare impacts. The report recommends greater transparency and selectivity in the use of this policy instrument.
The World Bank's Experience with Post-conflict Reconstruction
Clearing landmines, rehabilitating and integrating of excombatants, rebuilding the infrastructure, coordinating aid sources—these are just some of the issues confronting the Bank in post-conflict reconstruction. The explosion of civil conflicts in the post-Cold War world has tested the World Bank's ability to address unprecedented devastation of human and social capital.This study covers post-conflict reconstruction in nine countries, assessing relevant, recent Bank experience. It also presents case-studies for ongoing and future operations, which analyze: 1. the Bank's main strengths or comparative advantages; 2. its partnership with other donors, international organizations, and NGOs; 3. its role in reconstruction strategy and damage and needs assessment; 4. its role in rebuilding the economy and institutions of governance; 5. its management of resources and processes; 6. implications for monitoring and evaluation.
Enterprise Isolation Programs in Transition Economies
I provide the first comprehensive analysis of isolation programs for financially distressed firms in transition economies. The study is based on empirical evidence from the Romanian program. The results indicate that the isolation program did not deliver any tangible improvements in operational performance, nor did it enhance the process of privatization or liquidation of large loss-making enterprises. I also show that firms included in the program faced softer budget constraints than their comparators outside the program. These findings question the feasibility of creating special programs for enterprise restructuring and privatization under government auspices.
poverty inequality and social policy in transition economies
November 1995 What happens to poverty and income inequality during the early period of transition to a market economy? Poverty is on the rise, and income inequality widens. Better targeting of social assistance and pension reform are the necessary policy reforms. In examining what happens to poverty and income inequality during the early period of transition to a market economy, Milanovic covers the period up to 1993. His analysis includes almost all transition economies that were not affected by wars, blockades, or embargoes. (In economies so affected, the intrinsic issues of transition are overshadowed by more basic issues of war or quasi-war economy and survival.) The two key issues of so...
Bosnia and Herzegovina
World Bank Discussion Paper No. 327. Indicates areas of high priority for additional analytical work in Russia's agriculture sector after four years of reform. The study concludes that structural change in Russian agriculture is far from complete and that analysts should continue to clarify and document the factors affecting performance of the sector and shaping its evolution.
