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The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Mitigation Policies
At the Paris Climate Conference held in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement – the first universal, legally binding global climate deal. The signatory parties committed themselves to a global action plan that aims to keep global warming to well below 2°C and to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C. As part of our Geo-Economics research initiative, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies has investigated the geopolitical consequences of climate mitigation and energy transition among a number of countries richly endowed in hydrocarbons who potentially stand to lose a significant part of their revenue stream as a result of demand changes for fossil fuels. If dem...
The Law of Nations in Early American Foreign Policy
In The Law of Nations in Early American Foreign Policy, Willem Theo Oosterveld provides the first general study of international law as interpreted and applied by the generation of the Founding Fathers.
The Rise and Fall of ISIS
Appearing seemingly out of nowhere over the course of 2013-14, the Islamic State, or Daesh, captured the attention of international audiences through widely broadcast acts of barbarity, followed by the proclamation of its own state and upending state borders in the process. The rise of the terror organization has prompted many questions: where did it originate from? How has it been able to establish itself so quickly? Can it actually persist? Can it be defeated? The aim of this year’s study, entitled “The Rise and Fall of ISIS: from Evitability to Inevitability”, is to understand the organization, its motivations, its inherent weaknesses, as well as its ability to endure. A broader aim...
A road to riches or a road to ruin?
China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) project was formally introduced by Chinese President Xi-Jinping in 2013. The project, aimed at integrating trade and investment in Eurasia, encompasses over $900 billion in planned investments of infrastructure across Central and South Asia, the Middle East, and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). A dedicated forum for cooperation with CEE countries has been around now for several years. Originally created in April 2012, ‘the so-called ‘16+1’ framework constitutes a platform which brings heads of state together annually to strengthen dialogue and cooperation between China and the CEE region. Chinese investment interests within the CEE region appear stro...
A Farewell to the West?
Still in dangerous waters since the shock of the attempted military coup in July 2016, the behavior of The Republic of Turkey – long considered an important strategic partner for the West – has become increasingly unpredictable. Could Turkey really bid “adieu” to the West in coming years, or perhaps even months? What kinds of paths lay ahead of a possible Turkish “pivot” away from the West? What does this mean for the West’s strategic interests in the region? Authored by Dr. Barin Kayaoğlu of the American University of Iraq, this year’s study entitled “A Farewell to the West? Turkey’s Possible Pivot in the Aftermath of the July 2016 Coup Attempt” explores the conditions that could lead Turkey to change its foreign policy direction in the near future, exploring four distinctive possibilities that could all have important implications for Europe, and the wider world. This study is part of the 2016-2017 HCSS StratMon.
The Value of Cooperation
The report is structured so as to achieve three objectives: 1 to introduce the reader to the security context in which HSD operates; 2 to provide an overview of where HSD stands and what its assets are; and 3 to show directions for development of the cluster and opportunities to reinforce its mission: to bring together triple-helix-partners with the aim to achieve synergies, bring economic benefits to the Netherlands as a hub for security innovation, and, ultimately, to generate security and economic benefits for society as a whole. The first part of the report starts out by describing what is meant by security, how thinking about security has evolved, and how ever more vital aspects of our ...
Beyond the Cold War of Words
This report is commissioned by RNW, an international media organization based in The Netherlands that aims to promote free speech and fundamental freedoms in countries where these are severely restricted. RNW (co)creates content and online platforms where young people can form and express their opinions about sensitive issues. This study zooms in on a select number of countries belonging to the post-Soviet space that lie on the fault lines of overlapping spheres of influence between Europe and Russia. Specifically, the report assesses the risks of the current one-sided media services to Russian speaking minorities in Latvia, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova. In doing so, the study examines the extent to which RNW could make a meaningful contribution to a more balanced information service, focusing on online and social media. Furthermore, the report analyzes the opportunities for RNW to operate in these countries, and provides an inventory of the kinds of (legal) barriers that exist that could hinder this aim.
SI VIS PACEM, PARA UTIQUE PACEM
Analyses of the international security environment typically provide somber overviews of the various drivers and manifestations of conflict and instability around the world. Recent developments such as the terrorist attacks in Paris, Beirut and elsewhere, a Middle East in flames, a resurgent Russia, incessant violence in West Africa or turmoil in South China Sea only reinforce this view. By framing our analysis of the security environment in these terms, debates about how to anticipate and respond to these current and future threats invariably focus on those forces of instability and conflict: how to identify threats and enemies and then eliminate them. This report is based on the premise that this conflict-centric mindset has led to portfolio choices in terms of strategies (‘what do we do and how do we do it?’), capabilities (‘what do we do it with?’), and partners (‘who do we do it with?’) that have been excessively onesided. This report argues that there is an alternative, complementary way of framing security that is equally real and equally actionable for defense and security organizations (DSOs4 ): a resilience-centric one.
Better Together
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