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Global Turning Points
The second edition of this popular book offers an accessible yet sophisticated analysis of the game-changing events and trends that are transforming the world beyond recognition. For the first time in human history, more people live in cities than in the countryside, and greater numbers suffer from obesity than from hunger. During the next few decades, India will become the biggest country in terms of population, China the largest in output, and the United States the richest among the major economies on a per capita income basis. Food and water shortages will likely become humankind's most important challenges. With four new chapters on the rise of the global middle class, the transformative power of technology, institutions and the entrepreneurial spirit, and the trials and tribulations of the financial system, this book provides a thorough introduction to the challenges facing business and society in the twenty-first century.
Quantitative foresight modeling to inform the CGIAR research portfolio
This report provides a quantitative assessment of the impacts of alternative investment options on the CGIAR’s SLOs (relating to poverty – SLO1, food and nutrition security – SLO2, and natural resources and ecosystem services – SLO3) in the context of changes in population, income, technology, and climate to 2050 as well as for key SDGs of importance to the developing world. The report serves as a source of information and evidence of the impact of CGIAR efforts in agricultural R&D as well as the role of complementary investments. It is intended to help the CGIAR Centers, CG Research Programs (CRP), system management, and donors to complement other efforts to assess the overall impact and benefits of investing in international and national agricultural research programs.
Climate change and hunger: Estimating costs of adaptation in the agrifood system
This report assesses the cost of adaptation to climate change across a range of future climate scenarios and investment options. We focus on offsetting climate change impacts on hunger through investment in agricultural research, water management, and rural infrastructure in developing countries. We link climate, crop, water, and economic models to (1) analyze scenarios of future change in the agriculture sector to 2050 and (2) assess trade-offs for these investments across key Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for poverty, hunger, and water. Our reference projections show that climate change slows progress toward eliminating hunger, with an additional 78 million people facing chronic hun...
Assessment of outcomes based on the use of PIM-supported foresight modeling work, 2012-2018
This report presents results of a study to assess the use of foresight modeling tools and outputs produced since 2012 and funded through Flagship 1, Cluster 1.1 of the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM). The goal of this study is to examine how the tools and outputs of foresight modeling supported by PIM through Flagship 1 (hereafter “PIM-supported foresight modeling”) have been used by stakeholders. The study aims to identify as many uses of and outcomes from the PIM-supported foresight modeling as possible. It is by no means comprehensive, but it does cover usage by a wide range of stakeholders from across the CGIAR system, other international organizations, academia, and national governments.
Principles of Conflict Economics
Drawing on a half-century of scholarship, this book presents a primer on the key themes and principles of conflict economics. Although much work in the field is abstract, the book is made accessible to a broad audience of scholars, students, and policymakers by relying on historical data, relatively simple graphs, and intuitive narratives.
Oil Abundance and Economic Growth
This book deals with the role of oil abundance in economic growth. The major theoretical contribution of the analysis is the transformation of the rentier state theory into the language of mathematical economics. The mathematical formalization of the rentier state theory enables a more sophisticated analytical tool for the assessment of the role of nonrenewable resource revenues in economic growth and institutional dynamics. The embedding of the elements of a rentier state into the labor surplus economy framework leads to grave consequences as reflected in the quantitative part of the survey. The augmented labor surplus economy model shows that both the political economy and the purely econo...
China's Post-Reform Economy - Achieving Harmony, Sustaining Growth
China has enjoyed heroic growth rates in the last twenty five years of reform and transition, pulling more people out of poverty more quickly than at any other time in human history. Nonetheless these successes have had costs: today China is faced with increasing environmental difficulties and there is a dangerous level of inequality of income and
Famines During the ʻLittle Ice Ageʼ (1300-1800)
This highly interdisciplinary book studies historical famines as an interface of nature and culture. It will bring together researchers from the natural and social sciences as well as the humanities. With reference to recent interdisciplinary concepts (disaster studies, vulnerability studies, environmental history) it will examine, how the dominant opposition of natural and cultural factors can be overcome. Such an integrated approach includes the "archives of nature" as well as "archives of man". It challenges deterministic models of human-environment interaction and replaces them with a dynamic, historicising approach. As a result it provides a fresh perspective on the entanglement of climate and culture in past societies.
The Global Crash
This book provides a comprehensive interdisciplinary account of the events leading to the financial crisis, its institutional causes and consequences, its economic characteristics and its socio-political implications. It offers an in-depth assessment of the future of global financial stability.
A recipe for disaster? Policy similarities and economic impacts of populist leaders
Populism has seen a global resurgence since the 1980s. Populists rise in times of crises through promises of economic prosperity. But do they keep their word? Existing data on populist leaders is expanded to cover a period of 120 years of global populism. The empirical analysis estimates significant negative performance gaps of populist rule with real GDP per capita growth being over 20 percentage points lower 15 years after populist takeover, compared to that of non-populist counterfactuals. There exists evidence that unsustainable macroeconomic policies like increased military expenditure, born out of a demand for security policies, act as a channel that damage the economy lastingly.
