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A New Fiscal Framework for Resource-Rich Countries
This paper revisits the debate on the design of fiscal rules in resource-rich countries. Its main objective is to assess alternative systems of rules against their policy objectives, while taking into account country characteristics. One of the contributions of the paper is to propose fiscal frameworks that are centered around the principle of insurance against shocks and less reliant on estimating precisely resource wealth, which tends to be highly volatile.
Calibrating Fiscal Rules
This technical note assesses how large shocks from natural disasters are key source of vulnerabilities for public finances. It extends the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department calibration toolkit by developing a methodology to calibrate fiscal rules in the event of natural disaster shocks and the possibility of implementing climate adaptation and mitigation measures. The features incorporated in this technical note would allow the calibration of a prudent medium-term fiscal anchor as well as annual budgetary limits that ensure the sustainability of public finances. The note is accompanied by a set of toolkits that provides instructions on calibrating a medium-term debt anchor and corresponding operational rules in the presence of natural disaster risks, accounting for climate investment and other mitigation mechanisms.
Financial Frictions and Stimulative Effects of Temporary Corporate Tax Cuts
This paper uses an industry equilibrium model where some firms are financially constrained to quantify the effects of a transitory corporate tax cut funded by a future tax increase on the U.S. economy. It finds that by increasing current cash-flows tax cuts alleviate financing frictions, hereby stimulating current investment. Per dollar of tax stimulus, aggregate investment increases by 26 cents on impact, and aggregate output by 3.5 cents. The average effect masks heterogeneity: multipliers are close to 1 for constrained firms, especially new entrants, and negative for larger and unconstrained firms. The output effects extend well past the period the policy is reversed, leading to a cumulative multiplier of 7.2 cents. Multipliers are significantly larger when controlling for the investment crowding-out effect among unconstrained firms.
Do Temporary Business Tax Cuts Matter? A General Equilibrium Analysis
This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the effects of temporary business tax cuts. First, the analysis extends the Ricardian equivalence result to an environment with production and establishes that a temporary tax cut financed by a future tax-increase has no real effect if the tax is lump-sum and capital markets are perfect. Second, it shows that in the presence of financing frictions which raise the cost of investment, the policy temporarily relaxes the financing constraint thereby reducing the marginal cost of investment. This direct effect implies positive marginal propensities to invest out of tax cuts. Third, when the tax is distortionary, the expectation of high future tax rates reduces the expected marginal return on investment mitigating the direct stimulative effects.
Uncertainty and Public Investment Multipliers: The Role of Economic Confidence
This paper investigates how macroeconomic uncertainty affects the fiscal multiplier of public investment. In theory, uncertainty can reduce the multiplier if the private sector becomes more cautious and does not respond to the fiscal stimulus. Conversely, it can increase the fiscal multiplier if public investment shocks improve private agents’ expectations about future economic outlook, and lead to larger private spending. Using the disagreement about GDP forecasts as a proxy for uncertainty, we find that unexpected increases in public investment have larger and longer-lasting effects on output, investment, and employment during periods of high uncertainty, with multipliers above 2, and the larger multipliers are not driven by economic slack. Public investment shocks are also found to boost private sector confidence during heightened uncertainty, driving-up expectations about future economic development which in turn magnify private sector response to the initial stimulus.
Building Integrated Economies in West Africa
The West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) has a long and varied history, and this book examines how the WAEMU can achieve its development and stability objectives, improve the livelihood of its people, and enhance the inclusiveness of its economic growth, all while preserving its financial stability, enhancing its competitiveness, and maintaining its current fixed exchange rates.
Algeria
Algeria’s economic recovery from the pandemic has been buoyed by the rise in international hydrocarbon prices. Fiscal and external surpluses are expected in 2022 for the first time in years. Inflation has nevertheless accelerated, as elsewhere, and has become a complex policy challenge. Monetary policy remained accommodative, while the dinar appreciated in the second half of the year. The authorities have gradually advanced on their structural reform agenda, with the enactment of a new law on investment, renewed efforts to accelerate digitalization, significant progress on tax and public finance management reforms, and a forthcoming revision to the central bank law.
Luxembourg
This Selected Issues paper studies diversification in Luxembourg’s economy and the role of the government. The economy of Luxembourg appears to be more concentrated than that of comparable countries. Sectoral output is more concentrated than in other countries; this relative lack of diversification is true even when the financial sector is excluded and even compared with other European countries with a small population. However, employment concentration is similar to that in other countries. Luxembourg specializes in sectors whose labor productivity is somewhat higher than in several benchmark countries. The government should continue to further diversify the economy by fostering an environment for growth.
Cambodia
After suffering a recession during the pandemic, the Cambodian economy was on a steady recovery path, but is facing new pressures in 2022 that have buffeted external demand and increased inflation rates. The authorities have largely continued with crisis policy responses and have pressed on with policy reforms. The recovery is projected to continue, notwithstanding external stresses. Risks of public debt distress remain low. However, the level of private debt raises concerns about potential debt overhang.
Securing Fiscal Discipline and Credibility in
Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability. The 3 and 70 percent of GDP deficit and debt ceilings envisaged by the expired rule remain appropriate, while addressing the stock-flow adjustments will help rebuild fiscal buffers. Convergence to a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP should be ensured by 2025— barring exceptional circumstances—with focus on domestic revenue mobilization, while controlling expenditure. To secure fiscal discipline and credibility, it is essential to revamp the fiscal rule with a credible debt correction mechanism and exogenous escape clauses.
