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The authors analyze the dynamics of in Central and Eastern Europe. The volume covers all the key factors of disinflation in transition economies: changes in money supply and money demand; exchange rate policy; currency crisis; fiscal policy; legal status of central banks; monetary policy strategy; changes in relative prices and changes in nominal and real wages.
This book is about the growth of shadow banking in China and the rise of China’s free markets. Shadow Banking refers to capital that is distributed outside the formal banking system, including everything from Mom and Pop lending shops to online credit to giant state owned banks called Trusts. They have grown from a fraction of the economy ten years ago to nearly half of all China’s annual Rmb 25 trillion ($4.1 trillion) in lending in the economy today. Shadow Banks are a new aspect of capitalism in China – barely regulated, highly risky, yet tolerated by Beijing. They have been permitted to flourish because many companies cannot get access to formal bank loans. It is the Wild West of banking in China. If we define capitalism as economic activity controlled by the private sector, then Shadow Banking is still in a hybrid stage, a halfway house between the state and the private economic. But it is precisely this divide that makes Shadow Banking an important to the rise of capitalism. How Beijing handles this large free market will say a lot about how the country’s economy will grow – will free markets be granted greater leeway?
Oil, gas and mineral deposits are a substantial part of the wealth of many countries, not least in developing and emerging market economies. Harnessing some part of that wealth for fiscal purposes is critical for economic development: in few areas of economic life are the returns to good policy so large, or mistakes so costly.
After the 2003-2007 economic boom, European countries with large pre-crisis current account imbalances are undergoing adjustments. Countries are adjusting at different paces and ways reflecting the source and magnitude of imbalances, availability of financing, competitiveness of the tradable sector and external environment. While emerging European countries with large pre-crisis imbalances and a fixed exchange rate regime have seen sharp current account adjustments and a rebound in growth, adjustment in the euro zone periphery countries, which are also carrying a legacy of pre-crisis CA imbalances, has been gradual with difficulties bringing back growth. This paper is an empirical investigation of current account adjustment in Europe with a focus on these two groups, looking at contributions from cyclical and other factors, and seeking to draw policy conclusions.
Greece adopted an ambitious program to eliminate fiscal and current account imbalances, regain competitiveness, maintain financial stability, and boost growth and employment. While significant fiscal adjustment occurred, critical objectives such as regaining confidence and restoring growth were not achieved. The program lacked in better tailoring of IMF lending policies, avoiding undue delays in debt restructuring, attention to the political economy of adjustment, and parsimony in fiscal structural reforms. The importance of streamlining the Troika process and effective risk-sharing arrangements within the euro area has been stressed by Executive Directors.
Residential house prices in Cyprus show no signs of overvaluation in international comparison, and various indicators confirm that prices are aligned with economic fundamentals. However, still-high household debt poses a risk. Regional disparities raise some concerns about affordability, notably in Limassol, calling for supply-side measures to increase housing supply.
The September 2015 issue of the IMF Research Bulletin covers a range of research topics. The Research Summaries featured in this issue are “Lower for Longer: Neutral Rates in the United States” (Andrea Pescatori and Jarkko Turunen) and “Economic Principles for Resource Revenue Management” (Anthony J. Venables and Samuel Wills). The Q&A article looks at “Seven Questions on Financing for Development” (Amadou Sy) and the global development agenda. The issue also includes special announcements on the 2015 Annual Research Conference and the 2015 IMF Annual Report, as well as new IMF publications. Readers will also find a link to a top-viewed article from the “IMF Economic Review”—the IMF’s official research journal.
Rigidities in Greece’s product and labor markets leading to economic imbalances and the significance of reforms to these markets are played out in the first paper. The second paper describes the problems, progress to date, and agenda for work in Greece’s revenue administration and how this effort has been achieved primarily by raising tax rates to high levels and reducing wages, pensions, and other spending. The third paper is on the need for designing and implementing debt restructuring frameworks as well as improving banks’ loan resolution practices so that Greece’s banks are positioned to support the economic recovery.
Cyprus: Selected Issues
The ex-post evaluation of Iceland’s Exceptional Access under the 2008 Stand-By Arrangement is presented. In the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008, Iceland has experienced a deep financial and economic crisis of its own. Domestically, the rapid increase in lending fuelled bubbles in all asset classes, particularly the stock market and real estate. Inflated asset prices and nontransparent cross-financing and related party lending between banks and holding companies helped mask poor asset quality and facilitated the financing of credit expansion by borrowing abroad, increasing vulnerability.