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Exchange Rate Policy and Devaluation in Malawi
The Malawian economy has in recent months been plagued by a severe foreign exchange crisis, fueled in part by a steadily rising import bill, sharp successive declines in tobacco export prices, the suspension of direct government budget support from several development partners in 2011, and an all-time low in international investor confidence. Up until the regime change in April 2012, the government resisted calls for a devaluation, which at the time resulted in a thriving parallel foreign exchange market. At its peak, the Malawi kwacha was trading at a premium of up to 100 percent in this secondary market. Economic theory shows that such a situation has adverse implications for an economy in...
Evidence on Key Policies for African Agricultural Growth
It is widely agreed that reducing poverty in Africa south of the Sahara (SSA) depends largely on stimulating growth in agriculture. To this end, heads of state in Africa rallied to form the pan-African Comprehensive African Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) with the goal of raising investments and improving strategy implementation. However, while implementing an agricultural agenda under the CAADP framework, more and more countries have realized that increasing public investment in agriculture alone is not enough. Policy can play an important role not only to make public investment more efficient, but also is crucial for incentivizing private sector and farmer investment in agricultu...
Opportunities and Challenges for Community Involvement in Public Service Provision in Rural Guatemala
The purpose of the research summarized in this paper is to provide policy-relevant knowledge on the governance of rural services in Guatemala and thus to contribute to improving the provision of services that are essential for agricultural and rural development. Almost 10 years ago, the Guatemalan government decided to strengthen decentralization and community participation to improve the quality of public services, as well as access to these services for the poor, especially in rural areas. Based on quantitative and qualitative primary data, we examine how services are actually provided today and how community preferences and participation affect service provision in rural Guatemala. Our ma...
Evaluating the Local Economywide Impacts of Irrigation Projects
Despite years of development interventions, agricultural productivity in Africa south of the Sahara still trails far behind all other continents, leaving many rural populations in dire poverty. This suggests that our understanding of the impacts of agricultural development projects is still imperfect; perfecting it is likely to be a crucial step in achieving development. Projects that raise agricultural productivity, in addition to directly affecting farmers, can have an impact on local prices, wages, and rents, especially in rural areas of Africa, which tend to be less-than-perfectly integrated with outside markets. Price changes, in turn, transmit project impacts to others within the local...
How are farmers adapting to climate change in Vietnam? Endogeneity and sample selection in a rice yield model
Vietnam is likely to be among the countries hardest hit by climate change, threatening its legacy as a champion in leveraging agriculture for development. This paper examines how a changing climate may affect rice production and how Vietnamese farmers are likely to adapt to various climatic conditions using an innovative yield function approach, taking into account sample selection bias and endogeneity of inputs. Model results suggest that although climate change can potentially reduce rice production, farmers will respond mainly by adjusting the production portfolio and levels of input use. However, investments in rural infrastructure and human capital will have to support farmers in the adaptation process if production levels and farm incomes are to be sustained in the future.
Factor endowments, wage growth, and changing food self-sufficiency: Evidence from country-level panel data
Asian countries have witnessed a sharp increase in real wage as a result of rapid economic growth and structural transformation in recent years. Using a country level panel data from 1980 to 2010, this paper examines the effects of real wage increase on Asian agriculture that traditionally used family labor intensively on small farms. The empirical evidence supports our hypothesis that an increase in real wages, along with absorptions of labor into nonagricultural sectors, has been inducing the substitution of labor by machines in agriculture. However, this process is less successful in the countries that are constrained by their small operational land sizes, resulting in lowered land productivity. We also demonstrated that dynamic changes in yield are an important determinant of food self-sufficiency ratio. The above findings imply that in the near future, Asian agriculture can face a challenge in maintaining domestic food production. Given the large size of consumer demands in the region and its increasing trend, the future path of Asian agriculture could be a significant constraint on the global food supplydemand balance.
Parametric decomposition of the malmquist index in an output-oriented distance function: Productivity in Chinese agriculture
The paper extends the methodology of parametric decomposition of the Malmquist productivity index using an output distance function. This approach addresses common methodological issues in total factor productivity estimation to produce credible and relevant results. The Malmquist index can be decomposed into several components: technical change (further broken down into technical change magnitude, input bias, and output bias), technical efficiency change, scale efficiency change, and output-mix effect. A translog output distance function is chosen to represent the production technology, and each component of the Malmquist index is computed using the estimated parameters. This parametric approach allows us to statistically test hypotheses regarding different components of the Malmquist index and the nature of production technology. The empirical application to Chinese agriculture shows that productivity grows at 2 percent per year on average from 1978 through 2010. The growth is mostly driven by technical change, which is found to be technology neutral.
