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Are China's Clothing and Textile Exports Demand Or Supply Constrained?
TChina Paper 91/8' from the Economics Division of the Research School of Pacific Studies, ANU, this paper examines China's clothing and textile trade and in particular the impact of the multifibre arrangement and other trade restrictions.
China'S Integration Into the World Economy
Although the rest of the world had waited a long time for China to open up, feelings were mixed when it actually did and began to integrate rapidly with the world economy. With the country’s recent accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), many of its trading partners are increasingly concerned that China’s competition in the world goods and capital markets may adversely affect their own growth prospects. This paper examines the implications of China’s WTO accession for other developing countries in the context of the country’s long-term process of growth and opening up. The paper argues that China’s integration into the world economy will inevitably impose adjustment costs on its trading partners in the short-to-medium term, but the benefits it generates are likely to dominate in the long run.
Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises
Low-income countries were hit especially hard by sharp increases in world food and fuel prices in 2007-08 and the global financial crisis that followed. In response, the International Monetary Fund scaled up its financial assistance to low-income countries and revamped its concessional lending facilities to make them more flexible in meeting the diverse needs of these countries. Creating Policy Space in Low-Income Countries during the Recent Crises assesses empirically the outcome of the IMF response, and provides insight into how IMF-supported programs in low-income countries have been adapted to the changing economic circumstances in these countries. The authors report that these programs have provided expanded policy space in the face of the global price shocks and financial crisis.
Global Rebalancing
While global rebalancing will mainly involve structural realignment among major advanced and emerging market economies, it could have significant impact on low-income countries (LICs). Simulations using a global general equilibrium model show that a more balanced global economy would tend to improve the current account balance in LICs with limited impact on domestic output. However, there could be adverse terms of trade effects on some LICs as the prices of manufactured goods rise. On the other hand, such prices increases could provide an impetus to export diversification in many LICs, raising growth in the long run. The output and terms of trade effects would be significantly amplified if structural adjustment is impeded by factor immobility and other rigidities.
Regional Trade Arrangements in Africa
In recent years, African policymakers have increasingly resorted to regional trade arrangements (RTAs) as a substitute for broad-based trade liberalization. This trend has long-term implications for the effectiveness of trade policy as a tool for poverty reduction and growth. This paper examines the record of RTAs in promoting trade and investment. It also explores policy measures that may help improve RTAs' performance.
Low-Income Countries' BRIC Linkage
Trade and financial ties between low-income countries (LICs) and Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRICs) have expanded rapidly in recent years. This gives rise to the potential for growth to spill over from the latter to the former. We employ a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to investigate the extent of business cycle transmission from BRICs to LICs through both direct (FDI, trade, productivity, exchange rates) and indirect (global commodity prices, demand, and interest rates) channels. The estimation results show that there are significant direct spillovers while indirect spillovers also matters in many cases. Based on these results, we show that growing LIC-BRIC ties have significantly helped alleviate the adverse impact of the recent global financial crisis on LIC economies.
Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa
Over the next decade, African countries are expected to be the largest beneficiaries of increased donor aid, which is intended to improve their prospects for achieving the Millennium Development Goals. This handbook will help these countries assess the macroeconomic implications of increased aid and respond to the associated policy challenges. The handbook is directed at policymakers, practicing economists in African countries, and the staffs of international financial institutions and donor agencies who participate in preparing medium-term strategies for African countries, including in the context of poverty reduction strategy papers. It provides five main guidelines for developing scaling-up scenarios to help countries identify important policy issues involved in using higher aid flows effectively: to absorb as much aid as possible, to boost growth in the short to medium term, to promote good governance and reduce corruption, to prepare an exit strategy should aid levels decrease, and to regularly reassess the policy mix.
The Pacific Speed of Growth
This study aims to test within a relatively homogeneous group of small states what differentiates the growth performance of Pacific island countries (PICs) from their peers. We find that PICs are disadvantaged by distance and hampered by lower investment and exports compared with other small island states, but greater political stability, catch-up effects from lower initial incomes, and slower population growth have helped offset some of these disadvantages. On balance, policy-related factors, together with geography-related disadvantages, have led to growth rates in PICs that are much lower than in other small states. We also examine how real exchange rate appreciation, unfavorable developments in the external trade environment, and rising international transport costs may have contributed to PICs’ slower growth over the past decade.
Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design
Fiscal Consolidation: Taking Stock of Success Factors, Impact, and Design
