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Modern Risk Quantification in Complex Projects
A modified non-linear Monte Carlo methodology is developed to dramatically increase the accuracy of contingency development in complex project. It is achieved through counting of non-linear risk interactions in complex projects consistently that have been completely missed out by the traditional methods.
Project Risk Management
An easy to implement, practical, and proven risk management methodology for project managers and decision makers Drawing from the author's work with several major and mega capital projects for Royal Dutch Shell, TransCanada Pipelines, TransAlta, Access Pipeline, MEG Energy, and SNC-Lavalin, Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers reveals how to implement a consistent application of risk methods, including probabilistic methods. It is based on proven training materials, models, and tools developed by the author to make risk management plans accessible and easily implemented. Written by an experienced risk management professional Reveals essential risk ...
Risk-Based Project Decisions in Situations of High Complexity and Deep Uncertainty
This book integrates for readers three areas of knowledge, pertaining to risk-based project decision making: project risk management (PRM), complexity theory, and decision-making under deep uncertainty (DMDU). Readers will appreciate that in practice, too often relevant complexity and uncertainty factors are either ignored or overlooked resulting in epic project failures. The author discusses a variety of methodologies and a decision-tree-type framework to determine why, when and how particular methodologies should be applied to ensure project success. These include nonlinear Monte Carlo techniques, a dynamic adaptive methodology to adapt to external environment changes, game theory for devising robust decision-making criteria, systems dynamics and cost escalation modelling, as well as risk-based & economic-based alternatives selection methodologies. This book will be an eye-opener for many PRM practitioners, helping to increase their chances of project success by properly handling inescapable project-complexity and deep-uncertainty implications in specific contexts.
Handbook of Research on Leveraging Risk and Uncertainties for Effective Project Management
"This book is a comprehensive reference source for emerging perspectives on the benefits and challenges when implementing strategies and methods for managing risk in projects. Featuring innovative coverage across relevant topics, such as complexity theory, cost risk analysis and schedule risk analysis"--
Turbulence
This is an advanced textbook on the subject of turbulence, and is suitable for engineers, physical scientists and applied mathematicians. The aim of the book is to bridge the gap between the elementary accounts of turbulence found in undergraduate texts, and the more rigorous monographs on the subject. Throughout, the book combines the maximum of physical insight with the minimum of mathematical detail. Chapters 1 to 5 may be appropriate as background material for an advanced undergraduate or introductory postgraduate course on turbulence, while chapters 6 to 10 may be suitable as background material for an advanced postgraduate course on turbulence, or act as a reference source for professional researchers. This second edition covers a decade of advancement in the field, streamlining the original content while updating the sections where the subject has moved on. The expanded content includes large-scale dynamics, stratified & rotating turbulence, the increased power of direct numerical simulation, two-dimensional turbulence, Magnetohydrodynamics, and turbulence in the core of the Earth
Decision Management: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications
The implementation of effective decision making protocols is crucial in any organizational environment in modern society. Emerging advancements in technology and analytics have optimized uses and applications of decision making systems. Decision Management: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications is a compendium of the latest academic material on the control, support, usage, and strategies for implementing efficient decision making systems across a variety of industries and fields. Featuring comprehensive coverage on numerous perspectives, such as data visualization, pattern analysis, and predictive analytics, this multi-volume book is an essential reference source for researchers, academics, professionals, managers, students, and practitioners interested in the maintenance and optimization of decision management processes.
Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis
Project managers tend to believe their cost estimates - whether they have exceeded budgets in the past or not. It is dangerous to accept the engineering cost estimates, which are often optimistic or unrealistic. Though cost estimates incorporate contingency reserves below-the-line, these estimates of reserves often do not benefit from a rigorous assessment of risk to project costs. Risks to cost come from multiple sources including uncertain project duration, which is often ignored in cost risk analyses. In short, experience shows that cost estimating on projects is rarely successful - cost overruns routinely occur. There are effective ways to estimate the impact on the cost of complex proje...
Causality
Head hits cause brain damage - but not always. Should we ban sport to protect athletes? Exposure to electromagnetic fields is strongly associated with cancer development - does that mean exposure causes cancer? Should we encourage old fashioned communication instead of mobile phones to reduce cancer rates? According to popular wisdom, the Mediterranean diet keeps you healthy. Is this belief scientifically sound? Should public health bodies encourage consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables? Severe financial constraints on research and public policy, media pressure, and public anxiety make such questions of immense current concern not just to philosophers but to scientists, governments, publ...
Krylov Subspace Methods
Describes the principles and history behind the use of Krylov subspace methods in science and engineering. The outcome of the analysis is very practical and indicates what can and cannot be expected from the use of Krylov subspace methods, challenging some common assumptions and justifications of standard approaches.
