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Achieving Financial Stability: Challenges To Prudential Regulation
The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2010 exposed the existence of significant imperfections in the financial regulatory framework that encouraged excessive risk-taking and increased system vulnerabilities. The resulting high cost of the crisis in terms of lost aggregate income and wealth, and increased unemployment has reinforced the need to improve financial stability within and across countries via changes in traditional microprudential regulation, as well as the introduction of new macroprudential regulations. Amongst the questions raised are:
The Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency
This paper provides a structured overview of the burgeoning literature on the economics of CBDC. We document the economic forces that shape the rise of digital money and review motives for the issuance of CBDC. We then study the implications for the financial system and discuss of a number of policy issues and challenges. While the academic literature broadly echoes policy makers' concerns about bank disintermediation and financial stability risks, it also provides conditions under which such adverse effects may not materialize. We also point to several knowledge gaps that merit further work, including data privacy and the study of end-user preferences for attributes of digital payment methods.
CBDC and Financial Stability
What is the effect of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on financial stability? We answer this question by studying a model of financial intermediation with an endogenously determined probability of a bank run, using global games. As an alternative to bank deposits, consumers can also store their wealth in remunerated CBDC issued by the central bank. Consistent with widespread concerns among policymakers, higher CBDC remuneration increases the withdrawal incentives of consumers, and thus bank fragility. However, the bank optimally responds to the additional competition by offering better deposit rates to retain funding, which reduces fragility. Thus, the overall relationship between CBDC remuneration and bank fragility is U-shaped.
The Architecture of Supervision
The architecture of supervision - how we define the allocation of supervisory powers to different policy institutions - can have implications for policy conduct and for the economic and financial environment in which these policies are implemented. Theoretically, an integrated structure for monetary policy and supervision brings important benefits arising from better information flow and policy coordination. Aggregate supervisory information may significantly improve the conduct of monetary policy and the effectiveness of the lender of last resort function. As long as the process towards an integrated structure does not shrink the set of available tools, monetary policy and supervision are n...
Central Bank Digital Currency and Financial Stability
What is the effect of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on financial stability? We answer this question by studying a model of financial intermediation with an endogenously determined probability of a bank run and a remunerated CBDC that provides consumers with an alternative to bank deposits. Consistent with concerns among policymakers, higher CBDC remuneration raises bank fragility by increasing consumers' withdrawal incentives. However, it also induces the bank to offer more attractive deposit contracts in an effort to retain funding, which reduces fragility. Accordingly, the overall relationship between bank fragility and CBDC remuneration is U-shaped. We evaluate the effects of different policy proposals aimed at reducing the financial stability implications of CBDC, and study extensions that allow for imperfect competition in deposit markets and bank risk-taking.
Government Guarantees and the Two-way Feedback Between Banking and Sovereign Debt Crises
This paper studies the effects of government guarantees on the interconnection between banking and sovereign debt crises in a framework where both the banks and the government are fragile and the credibility and feasibility of the guarantees are determined endogenously. The analysis delivers some new results on the role of guarantees in the bank-sovereign nexus. First, guarantees emerge as a key channel linking banks' and sovereign stability, even in the absence of banks' holdings of sovereign bonds. Second, depending on the specific characteristics of the economy and the nature of banking crises, an increase in the size of guarantees may be beneficial for the bank-sovereign nexus, in that it enhances financial stability without undermining sovereign solvency.
Credit Market Competition and Liquidity Crises
We develop a model where banks invest in reserves and loans, and trade loans on the interbank market to deal with liquidity shocks. Two types of equilibria emerge, depending on the degree of credit market competition and the level of aggregate liquidity risk. In one equilibrium, all banks keep enough reserves and remain solvent. In the other, some banks default with positive probability. The latter equilibrium exists when competition is not too intense and high liquidity shocks are not too likely. The model delivers several implications concerning the severity of crises and credit availability along the business cycle.
Loan Guarantees, Bank Underwriting Policies and Financial Fragility
Loan guarantees represent a form of government intervention to support bank lending. However, their use raises concerns as to their effect on bank risk-taking incentives. In a model of financial fragility that incorporates bank capital and a bank incentive problem, we show that loan guarantees reduce depositor runs and improve bank underwriting standards, except for the most poorly capitalized banks. We highlight a novel feedback effect between banks' underwriting choices and depositors' run decisions, and show that the effect of loan guarantees on banks' incentives is different from that of other types of guarantees, such as deposit insurance.
