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Developments in Macro-Finance Yield Curve Modelling
Changes in the shape of the yield curve have traditionally been one of the key macroeconomic indicators of a likely change in economic outlook. However, the recent financial crises have created a challenge to the management of monetary policy, demanding a revision in the way that policymakers model expected changes in the economy. This volume brings together central bank economists and leading academic monetary economists to propose new methods for modelling the behaviour of interest rates. Topics covered include: the analysis and extraction of expectations of future monetary policy and inflation; the analysis of the short-term dynamics of money market interest rates; the reliability of existing models in periods of extreme market volatility and how to adjust them accordingly; and the role of government debt and deficits in affecting sovereign bond yields and spreads. This book will interest financial researchers and practitioners as well as academic and central bank economists.
World Economic Outlook, October 2016
According to the October 2016 "World Economic Outlook," global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2016 before recovering to 3.4 percent in 2017. The forecast, revised down by 0.1 percentage point for 2016 and 2017 relative to April’s report, reflects a more subdued outlook for advanced economies following the June U.K. vote in favor of leaving the European Union (Brexit) and weaker-than-expected growth in the United States. These developments have put further downward pressure on global interest rates, as monetary policy is now expected to remain accommodative for longer. Although the market reaction to the Brexit shock was reassuringly orderly, the ultimate impact remains very ...
The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Central Banking
"The Handbook reflects the state of the art in the theory and practice of central banking. It covers all the essential areas that have come under scrutiny since the global financial crisis of 2007-9"--
Perspectives de l’économie mondiale, octobre 2016
Selon l'édition 2016 des Perspectives de l'économie mondiale, la croissance mondiale devrait ralentir à 3,1 % en 2016 avant de remonter à 3,4 % en 2017. Ces prévisions, revues à la baisse de 0,1 point de pourcentage pour 2016 et 2017 par rapport à l'édition d'avril, reflètent des perspectives plus moroses pour les pays avancés à la suite du vote, en juin dernier, en faveur de la sortie du Royaume-Uni de l'Union européenne (Brexit), et en raison d'une croissance inférieure aux attentes aux États-Unis. Cette évolution exerce une pression à la baisse sur les taux d'intérêts mondiaux car la politique monétaire devrait rester accommodante sur une plus longue durée. En dépit d...
Perspectivas de la economía mundial, octubre de 2016
En la edición de octubre de 2016 de Perspectivas de la economía mundial (informe WEO) se proyecta que el crecimiento mundial disminuirá a 3,1% en 2016 y que repuntará a 3,4% en 2017. El pronóstico, que representa una revisión a la baja de 0,1 puntos porcentuales para 2016 y 2017 frente a las estimaciones de abril, refleja una moderación de las perspectivas de las economías avanzadas tras la votación de junio en la que el Reino Unido decidió abandonar la Unión Europea —un hecho al que comúnmente se hace referencia con el término “brexit”— y un crecimiento más débil de lo previsto en Estados Unidos. Estos factores han agudizado la presión a la baja sobre las tasas de in...
计量经济学导论
高等学校经济学类英文版教材
The Journey to Inflation Targeting
Countries with evolving monetary regimes that decide to embark on “the Journey to inflation targeting” may not be able to adopt a full-fledged inflation targeting regime immediately. Those countries would be better off adopting transitional arrangements that take advantage of the informational content of monetary aggregates, developing an economic analysis capacity, and concentrating on monetay operations aimed at steering money market interest rates. This approach would allow the central bank to buy time for developing the building blocks for effective monetary policy, support transparent central bank communication, and limit the potential for undesirable outcomes along the road.
