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Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey
In this paper, we survey the rapidly developing literature on macroprudential stress-testing models. The scope of the survey includes models of contagion between banks, models of contagion within the wider financial system including non-bank financial institutions such as investment funds, and models that emphasise the two-way interaction between the financial sector and the real economy. Our aim is two-fold: first, to provide a reference guide of the state-of-the-art for those developing such models; second, to distil insights from this endeavour for policy-makers using these models. In our view, the modelling frontier faces three main challenges: (a) our understanding of the potential for ...
How Does the Repo Market Behave Under Stress? Evidence From the COVID-19 Crisis
We examine how the repo market operates during liquidity stress by applying network analysis to novel transaction-level data of the overnight gilt repo market including the COVID-19 crisis. During this crisis, the repo network becomes more connected, with most institutions relying on existing trade relationships to transact. There are however significant changes in the repo volumes and spreads during the stress relative to normal times. We find a significant increase in volumes traded in the cleared segment of the market. This reflects a preference for dealers and banks to transact in the cleared rather than the bilateral segment. Funding decreases towards non-banks, only increasing for hedge funds. Further, spreads are higher when dealers and banks lend to rather than borrow from non-banks. Our results can inform the policy debate around the behaviour of banks and non-banks in recent liquidity stress and on widening participation in CCPs by nonbanks.
Bankers, Bureaucrats, and Central Bank Politics
Most studies of the political economy of money focus on the laws protecting central banks from government interference; this book turns to the overlooked people who actually make monetary policy decisions. Using formal theory and statistical evidence from dozens of central banks across the developed and developing worlds, this book shows that monetary policy agents are not all the same. Molded by specific professional and sectoral backgrounds and driven by career concerns, central bankers with different career trajectories choose predictably different monetary policies. These differences undermine the widespread belief that central bank independence is a neutral solution for macroeconomic management. Instead, through careful selection and retention of central bankers, partisan governments can and do influence monetary policy - preserving a political trade-off between inflation and real economic performance even in an age of legally independent central banks.
Artificial Intelligence in Finance
This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the primary challenges, opportunities and regulatory developments associated with the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in the financial sector. It will show that, while AI has the potential to promote a more inclusive and competitive financial system, the increasing use of AI may bring certain risks and regulatory challenges that need to be addressed by regulators and policymakers.
A Europe Made of Money
A Europe Made of Money is a new history of the making of the European Monetary System (EMS), based on extensive archive research. Emmanuel Mourlon-Druol highlights two long-term processes in the monetary and economic negotiations in the decade leading up to the founding of the EMS in 1979. The first is a transnational learning process involving a powerful, networked European monetary elite that shaped a habit of cooperation among technocrats. The second stresses the importance of the European Council, which held regular meetings between heads of government beginning in 1974, giving EEC legitimacy to monetary initiatives that had previously involved semisecret and bilateral negotiations. The ...
Macroprudential Banking Supervision & Monetary Policy
The European experience suggests that the efforts made to achieve an efficient trade-off between monetary policy and prudential supervision ultimately failed. The severity of the global crisis have pushed central banks to explore innovative tools—within or beyond their statutory constraints—capable of restoring the smooth functioning of the financial cycle, including setting macroprudential policy instruments in the regulatory toolkit. But macroprudential and monetary policies, by sharing multiple transmission channels, may interact—and conflict—with each other. Such conflicts may represent not only an economic challenge in the pursuit of price and financial stability, but also a legal uncertainty characterizing the regulatory developments of the EU macroprudential and monetary frameworks. In analyzing the “legal interaction” between the two frameworks in the EU, this book seeks to provide evidence of the inconsistencies associated with the structural separation of macroprudential and monetary frameworks, shedding light upon the legal instruments that could reconcile any potential policy inconsistency.
Trade-offs in Bank Resolution
This SDN revisits the debate on bank resolution regimes, first by presenting a simple model of bank insolvency that transparently describes the trade-off involved between bail-outs, bail-ins, and larger capital buffers. The note then looks for empirical evidence to assess the moral hazard consequences of bail-outs and the systemic spillovers from bail-ins.
The Evolution of Central Banking: Theory and History
This book is the first complete survey of the evolution of monetary institutions and practices in Western countries from the Middle Ages to today. It radically rethinks previous attempts at a history of monetary institutions by avoiding institutional approach and shifting the focus away from the Anglo-American experience. Previous histories have been hamstrung by the linear, teleological assessment of the evolution of central banks. Free from such assumptions, Ugolini’s work offers bankers and policymakers valuable and profound insights into their institutions. Using a functional approach, Ugolini charts an historical trajectory longer and broader than any other attempted on the subject. Moving away from the Anglo-American perspective, the book allows for a richer (and less biased) analysis of long-term trends. The book is ideal for researchers looking to better understand the evolution of the institutions that underlie the global economy.
The Politics of Extreme Austerity
This volume investigates the policies and politics of extreme austerity, setting the crisis in Greece in its global context. Featuring multidisciplinary contributions and an exclusive interview with former Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou, this is the first comprehensive account of the economic crisis at the heart of Europe.
