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Getting Into the Nitty-Gritty of Fiscal Multipliers: Small Details, Big Impacts
Despite the remarkable progress the literature has made throughout the past years in studying fiscal multipliers, estimates still vary considerably across studies. Partly, estimates differ because of context-specific variables that affect multipliers, but also because of the lack of a standardized framework to calculate and report them, making comparisons among studies hard to make. In this paper, we use a large panel of countries to study how some important methodological details affect the empirical estimates. Focusing on emerging economies, we show how slight changes in the filtering approach of fiscal forecast errors or the accumulation procedure of responses can significantly impact estimates. We emphasize that one of the most important features of estimating multipliers is the endogenous dynamic responses of fiscal variables to fiscal shocks, and therefore we argue against reporting multipliers as simply the output response to exogenous fiscal innovations. Although our baseline results are in line with the previous studies, our standardized framework allow us to make fairer comparisons of multiplier estimates across budgetary items and country income groups.
Tributação e Envelhecimento
Temos uma população envelhecida com expectativas de que continue o seu crescimento. Numa época em que discutimos a tributação dos jovens e aprovamos medidas fiscais específicas para essa faixa etária, impõe - se, cada vez mais, pensar como é que a política fiscal deve tratar a terceira idade. Será que a Fiscalidade deve ter em consideração a terceira idade? Em que termos? Qual a situação no nosso país? São estas, entre outras, as questões que um conjunto de reputados especialistas propõem analisar nesta obra inédita no nosso país.
Département du Cher
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