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How Global Currencies Work
A powerful new understanding of global currency trends, including the rise of the Chinese yuan At first glance, the history of the modern global economy seems to support the long-held view that the currency of the world’s leading power invariably dominates international trade and finance. But in How Global Currencies Work, three noted economists overturn this conventional wisdom. Offering a new history of global finance over the past two centuries and marshaling extensive new data to test current theories of how global currencies work, the authors show that several national monies can share international currency status—and that their importance can change rapidly. They demonstrate how c...
International Currencies Past, Present, and Future
Conventional economic wisdom has long held that the world's dominant economic power tends to possess the world's dominant currency, and that the dominance of that currency can continue even after other, more dynamic economics powers surpass the issuer of it. The paradigmatic example is GreatBritain, which had the world's biggest economy and the dominant currency in the nineteenth century. Yet even as it faded relative to the US and Germany, the pound sterling remained the world's reserve currency well into the twentieth century. Only massive systemic shocks like the Great Depressionand World War Two could knock the pound from its perch. The story of the US economy and the dollar after the wa...
Thick vs. Thin-Skinned
We study the impact of technology on the reaction of financial markets to information, focusing on the foreign exchange market. We contrast the “thin-skinned” view that technological improvements cause markets to react more to new information with the “thick-skinned” view that they react less. We pinpoint exogenous technological changes using the timing of the connection of countries via the submarine fiber-optic cables used for electronic trading. Cable connections dampen the response of exchange rates to macroeconomic news, consistent with the “thick-skinned” hypothesis. This is in line with the view that technology eases access to information and reduces trend-following behavior. According to our estimates, cable connections reduce the reaction of exchange rates to U.S. monetary policy news by 50 to 80 percent.
Patterns in Invoicing Currency in Global Trade
This paper presents the most comprehensive and up-to-date panel data set of invoicing currencies in global trade. It provides data on the shares of exports and imports invoiced in US dollars, euros, and other currencies for more than 100 countries since 1990. The evidence from these data confirms findings from earlier research regarding the globally dominant role of the US dollar in invoicing - despite the comparatively smaller role of the US in global trade - and the overall stability of invoicing currency patterns. But the evidence also points to several novel stylised facts. First, both the US dollar and the euro have been increasingly used for invoicing even as the share of global trade accounted for by the US and the euro area has declined. Second, the euro is used as a vehicle currency in parts of Africa, and some European countries have seen significant shifts toward euro invoicing. And third, as suggested by the dominant currency paradigm, countries invoicing more in US dollars (euros) tend to experience greater US dollar (euro) exchange rate pass-through to their import prices; also, their trade volumes are more sensitive to uctuations in these exchange rates.
Distance(s) and the Volatility of International Trade(s)
Does distance matter for the volatility of international real and financial transactions? We show that it does, in addition to its well-established relevance for the level of trade. A simple model of trade with endogenous markups shows that demand shocks have a larger impact on trade between more distant countries. We test this implication in two steps, relying on a broad range of real and financial transactions measures, as well as several different metrics of distance (physical, linguistic, and internet). We first show that during the Great Trade Collapse of 2007-09 international transactions fell more between countries that are more distant along the various metrics, and find that the different distance measures magnify each other's respective impacts. We then focus on a longer panel analysis of trade in goods and show that trade is more volatile between more distant countries, with again a magnification pattern across metrics of distance.
The Development of the Financial Sector in Southeast Europe
KfW has been assigned responsibility by the German government and several other donors for projects designed to reconstruct the financial landscapes of Southeast Europe. These activities are recognized as quite successful in building sustainable financial institutions that serve the small end of the market, with special emphasis on microenterprise and small business. The KfW-managed projects have contributed to the overall stability of financial sectors and to economic recovery and growth through employment creation and investment. This book reviews experience gained and analyses the reasons for the successes achieved, options for further improvement, and scope for replicability in other transition and developing economies. A particularly interesting feature is that relatively small amounts of public funds can catalyse financial markets in volatile environments.
The New China Playbook
Financial Times Best Summer Books of 2023 'Essential reading' Tony Blair A revelatory, myth-dispelling exploration of China's juggernaut economy Although China's economy is one of the largest in the world, Western understanding of it is often based on dated assumptions and incomplete information. In The New China Playbook, Keyu Jin burrows deep into the mechanisms of a unique system, taking a nuanced, clear-eyed, and data-based look inside. From the far-reaching and unexpected consequences of China's one-child policy to the government's complex relationship with entrepreneurs, from its boisterous financial system to its latest push for technological innovation, Jin reveals the frequently mis...
EU Accession - Financial Sector Opportunities and Challenges for Southeast Europe
A distinguished international group of central bankers, commercial bankers, entrepreneurs, academic advisors, policymakers, and representatives of development finance organizations and donor agencies, brought together by KfW, examines in this book the future of financial sector development in Southeast Europe. They explore ways to strengthen the banking sector in Southeast Europe, further promote SMEs, and improve access to financial services in the region. Experts and decision-makers assess the opportunities and challenges presented by the EU accession process and Basel II, and offer candid insight into the expanding role of the private sector in developing the financial landscape. The perspectives presented in this book will prompt discussion and intellectual exchange that will serve as a new starting point for further successful cooperative initiatives.
