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Second Thoughts on Second Moments
June 1998 The evidence is broadly supportive of an asset view of speculative attacks and the importance of the variance of monetary aggregates in predicting currency crises, but it cast some doubt on existing theories. The literature on speculative attacks has been given new impetus by the collapse of the European currency arrangements beginning in 1992, by the Mexican peso crisis and after-effects in 1994, and most recently by speculative attacks across Asia. One strand of this literature stresses the importance of imbalances in stocks of monetary and financial aggregates rather than traditional flow factors, arguing that massive, volatile capital flows have become a dominant feature of the...
Global Banking, Financial Markets and Crises
This edited volume on "Global Banking, Financial Markets and Crises" contains original papers that examine issues concerning the changing role of global banks in crises. The papers in this volume also address the impact of global financial crises on multinational banking, financial markets, and emerging economies.
The Great Recession
Here, experts assess the role of central banks in responding to the recent financial crisis and in preventing future crises. The contributors focus on monetary policy, the new area of macroprudential policy, and issues of exchange rates, capital flows, and banking and financial markets.
The Political Economy of Privatization
Political incentives appear to affect the likelihood of privatization. Provinces in Argentina whose governors belonged to a fiscally conservative party were more likely to privatize, and fiscal and economic crises increased the likelihood of privatization. Clarke and Cull study the political economy of bank privatization in Argentina. The results of their study strongly support the hypothesis that political incentives affect the likelihood of privatization. They find that: * Provinces whose governors belonged to the fiscally conservative Partido Justicialista were more likely to privatize. * Fiscal and economic crises increased the likelihood of privatization. * Poorly performing banks were ...
Total Strangers Or Soul Mates?
August 1998 As Latin American and Caribbean countries have liberalized their trade regimes, they have enthusiastically adopted antidumping measures that reduce competition. Competition laws are only beginning to make their appearance in the region. Antidumping and competition policies are strangers in the region when they should be soul mates. As a result of trade reforms in the 1980s and 1990s Latin American and Caribbean countries became more open than at any time since World War II. However, these countries have recently begun to use antidumping measures as the new protection weapon of choice, as other barriers to trade have been reduced. In fact, the fastest growing antidumping actions a...
Estonia, the Challenge of Financial Integration
July 1998 To gain recognition from its counterparts in the European Union, Estonia must give priority to improving risk management in its banks and improving institutional capacity for bank regulation and supervision. The most important challenge of Estonia's strategy for integrating its financial sector with that of the European Union (EU) is to upgrade its capacity for prudential regulation and supervision enough to gain recognition from its EU counterparts. Doing so is also a crucial complement to Estonia's strategy for strengthening macroeconomic policy and stabilization-especially because, under a currency board, its banks are a central part of the transmission mechanism for capital flo...
Benefit Incidence and the Timing of Program Capture
August 1998 Benefits from schooling and antipoverty programs in rural India were captured early by the nonpoor. The poor tend to benefit from program expansion, and lose from contraction. Conventional methods of assessing benefit incidence hide this fact. Survey-based estimates of average program participation conditional on income are often used in assessing the distributional impacts of public spending reforms. But program participation could well be nonhomogeneous, so that marginal impacts of program expansion or contraction differ greatly from average impacts. Using the geographic variation found in sample survey data for rural India for 1993-94, Lanjouw and Ravallion estimate the margin...
Crisis Management in Argentina During the 1994-95 Mexican Crisis
The Mexican crisis of 1994-95 had strong spillover effects on Argentina. The Argentine government successfully announced a series of policies to mitigate the contagion effects. This paper studies how capital markets reacted to each policy announcement and news. Capital markets welcomed announcements that demonstrated a firm commitment to the currency board. The agreement with the IMF, the dollarization of reserve deposits in the central bank, and changes in reserve requirements had a strong positive impact on market returns. After a period of higher volatility, the appointment of a new finance minister significantly decreased the variance of stock and bond returns, while lower reserve requirements increased the volatility of interest rates.
