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Predicting Hotspots
This book should be useful to anyone interested in identifying the causes of civil conflict and doing something to end it. It even suggests a pathway for the lay reader. Civil conflict is a persistent source of misery to humankind. Its study, however, lacks a comprehensive theory of its causes. Nevertheless, the question of cooperation or conflict is at the heart of political economy. This book introduces Machine Learning to explore whether there even is a unified theory of conflict, and if there is, whether it is a ‘good’ one. A good theory is one that not only identifies the causes of conflict, but also identifies those causes that predict conflict. Machine learning algorithms use out ...
Machine-learning Techniques in Economics
This book develops a machine-learning framework for predicting economic growth. It can also be considered as a primer for using machine learning (also known as data mining or data analytics) to answer economic questions. While machine learning itself is not a new idea, advances in computing technology combined with a dawning realization of its applicability to economic questions makes it a new tool for economists.
Global Terrorism Issues and Developments
Terrorism is usually described as violence or the perception or threat of imminent violence. Terrorism has been used by a broad array of political organisations in furthering their objectives; both right-wing and left-wing political parties, nationalistic, and religious groups, revolutionaries and ruling governments. Those labelled 'terrorists' rarely identify themselves as such, and typically use other generic terms or terms specific to their situation, such as: separatist, freedom fighter, liberator, revolutionary, vigilante, militant, paramilitary, guerrilla, rebel, jihadi or mujaheddin, or fedayeen, or any similar-meaning word in other languages. Sadly is has become a global profession which has come to colour all aspects of life from travel, to office locations to pervasive fear. This new book presents important issues and ideas dealing with terrorism.
Identifying the Complex Causes of Civil War
This book uses machine-learning to identify the causes of conflict from among the top predictors of conflict. This methodology elevates some complex causal pathways that cause civil conflict over others, thus teasing out the complex interrelationships between the most important variables that cause civil conflict. Success in this realm will lead to scientific theories of conflict that will be useful in preventing and ending civil conflict. After setting out a current review of the literature and a case for using machine learning to analyze and predict civil conflict, the authors lay out the data set, important variables, and investigative strategy of their methodology. The authors then investigate institutional causes, economic causes, and sociological causes for civil conflict, and how that feeds into their model. The methodology provides an identifiable pathway for specifying causal models. This book will be of interest to scholars in the areas of economics, political science, sociology, and artificial intelligence who want to learn more about leveraging machine learning technologies to solve problems and who are invested in preventing civil conflict.
International Journal of Peace Economics and Peace Science Vol.1, No.2
This journal has been discontinued. Any issues are available to purchase separately.
Constitutional Mythologies
Our societies obviously rest on common beliefs. These "myths" are tools that help us to develop and build common identities; they form the structure around which societies function. This does not imply that these beliefs are “true,” in the sense that they would be supported by empirical facts. In social matters, myths have undoubtedly important functions to play even if no empirical facts support them. On the other hand, and precisely because they are not discussed, myths may be problematic: they may create illusions, conserve structures that are inefficient and unable to improve the situation of citizens. This is particularly true with constitutions. Constitutions are very important for...
Transdisciplinary Approaches on Reconciliation Research
Reconciliation studies are concerned with the processes of rebuilding and improving damaged relationships after major wrongdoings. They focus on factors such as law, economics, and international relations, as well as on elements such as emotions and ethics, culture and religion, media and education. Reconciliation research therefore requires a transdisciplinary approach, to analyse both the procedures leading to the recognition of truth as well as those in which justice is administered; both the impact of public apologies and cooperation agreements; both the implementation of memory policies and civil society initiatives; both the outcomes of trauma therapy and intergenerational encounter gr...
An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning
Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output variables, thereby assuming a specific functional and stochastic process underlying that process. We pursue a new approach to forecasting by employing a number of machine learning algorithms, a method that is data driven, and imposing limited restrictions on the nature of the true relationship between input and output variables. We apply the Elastic Net, SuperLearner, and Recurring Neural Network algorithms on macro data of seven, broadly representative, advanced and emerging economies and find that these algorithms can outperform traditional statistical models, thereby offering a relevant addition to the field of economic forecasting.
Risk, Global Governance and Security
This book steers discussion of the 'war on terror' away from the militaristic tinge it has acquired, back to the idea that increased global cooperation and a cosmopolitan agenda would be the best solution to managing globalised risks like terrorism.
Public Choice, Past and Present
In 1962, economists James M. Buchanan and Gordon Tullock published The Calculus of Consent, in which they developed the principles of public choice theory. In the fifty years since its publication, the book has defined the field and set the standard for research and analysis. To celebrate a half-century of scholarship in public choice, Dwight Lee has assembled distinguished academics from around the world to reflect on the influence of this monumental publication, and, more broadly, the legacy of its legendary authors. Their essays cover a broad spectrum of topics and approaches, from the impact of public choice theory on foreign policy analysis to personal remembrances of learning from and collaborating with Buchanan and Tullock. The result is a unique collection of insights that celebrate public choice and its visionary proponents, while considering its future directions.
