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Bulletin
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Technology and Epidemics
Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures show that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.
Fixed-term Employment Contracts in an Equilibrium Search Model
This paper analyzes the effects of fixed-term contracts using a version of the Lucas and Prescott island model with undirected search. A fixed-term contract of length J is modeled as a tax on separations of workers with tenure higher than J . While in principle these policies require a very large state space to analyze the firms and households' problems, we show that equilibrium allocations solve a simple dynamic programming problem. Analyzing this problem we show that equilibrium employment dynamics are characterized by two dimensional inaction sets. Finally, to understand the effect of these contracts, we compare them with two extreme cases: for J = 1 the fixed-term contracts are equivalent to the case of firing taxes, and for large J they are equivalent to the laissez-faire case. In a calibrated version of the model, we find that temporary contracts with J equivalent to three years length close about half of the gap between those two extremes.
The American Economic Review
Includes annual List of doctoral dissertations in political economy in progress in American universities and colleges.
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 49, No. 3
This paper empirically investigates the monetary impact of banking crises in Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, and Uruguay during 1975–98. Cointegration analysis and error correction modeling are used to research two issues: (i) whether money demand stability is threatened by banking crises; and (ii) whether crises lead to structural breaks in the relation between monetary indicators and prices. Overall, no systematic evidence that banking crises cause money demand instability is found. The paper also analyzes inflation targeting in the context of the IMF-supported adjustment programs.
Financing Entrepreneurship
Auerswald and Bozkaya have edited this collection of 24 papers about entrepreneurial finance, and the role the government takes in financing and motivating these concerns. These papers emphasize how entrepreneurs have taken advantage of a globalized economy to achieve unprecedented and accelerated success. Topics include the role of private equity and debt markets, entrepreneurial survival tactics and the relationship between entrepreneurs and bureaucrats. Written for business students and modern entrepreneurs, this large reference volume also discusses the debate between self-financing vs. the use of lending institutions.
