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Running Man
"After a decade-long addiction to crack cocaine and alcohol, Charlie Engle hit rock bottom after a near-fatal six-day binge ended in a hail of bullets. Then he found running, and it has helped keep him sober, focused and alive. He began to take on the most extreme endurance races, such as the 155-mile Gobi March, and developed a reputation as an inspirational speaker. However, after he made the documentary Running the Sahara, narrated by Matt Damon, which followed him on a 4500-mile crossing of the desert and helped raise $6 million, he was sent to prison after failing to complete his mortgage application properly. It was while he was in jail that he became known as 'The Running Man' as he pounded the prison yard, and soon his fellow inmates were joining him, finding new hope through running. Now, in his brilliantly written and powerful account, Engle tells the story of his life and how running has brought him so much pleasure and peace. Like such classics as Born to Runor Running with the Kenyans, this is a book that anyone who has ever found solace in the freedom of running will enjoy"--Google Books.
Comments on Obstfeld and Rogoff's "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics
The paper offers comments on Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000). The comments primarily focus on three issues: (a) How do we reconcile the numerical examples of OR, which show quantitatively plausible resolutions to the major puzzles arising from costs of trade, with previous studies that have found trade costs do not get us very far? (b) Does the solution proposed by OR solve the puzzles at the expense of introducing new puzzles? That is, does their solution have counterfactual implications for other economic relationships? (The prime example of what I have in mind here is what OR call the Backus-Smith puzzle'.) (c) Some of the problems connected with points (a) and (b) can be rectified by moving away from the assumption of complete asset markets. But, then, how do we assess how much of the solution to the puzzle is coming from trade costs versus capital-market imperfections?
Taylor Rules and the Deutschmark-dollar Real Exchange Rate
"We explore the link between an interest rate rule for monetary policy and the behavior of the real exchange rate. The interest rate rule, in conjunction with some standard assumptions, implies that the deviation of the real exchange rate from its steady state depends on the present value of a weighted sum of inflation and output gap differentials. The weights are functions of the parameters of the interest rate rule. An initial look at German data yields some support for the model"--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model
Many papers in the recent literature in open economy macroeconomics make different assumptions about the currency in which firms set their export prices when nominal prices must be pre-set. But to date, all of these studies take the currency of price setting as exogenous. This paper sets up a simple two-country general equilibrium model in which exporting firms can choose the currency in which they set prices for sales to foreign markets. We make two alternative assumptions about the structure of international financial markets: one where there are complete markets for hedging consumption risk internationally, and the other without risk-sharing possibilities. Our results are quite sharp: exporters will generally wish to set prices in the currency of the country that has the most stable monetary policy. When monetary stability is similar among countries, there is an equilibrium where firms from all countries set their price in the currency of the buyer (local currency pricing). But except for a special case where money variances are exactly identical across countries, there is no equilibrium where all firms set export prices in their own currencies (producer currency pricing).
Expenditure Switching Vs. Real Exchange Rate Stabilization
This paper develops a view of exchange rate policy as a trade-off between the desire to smooth fluctuations in real exchange rates so as to reduce distortions in consumption allocations, and the need to allow flexibility in the nominal exchange rate so as to facilitate terms of trade adjustment. We show that optimal nominal exchange rate volatility will reflect these competing objectives. The key determinants of how much the exchange rate should respond to shocks will depend on the extent and source of price stickiness, the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign goods, and the amount of home bias in production. Quantitatively, we find the optimal exchange rate volatility should be significantly less than would be inferred based solely on terms of trade considerations. Moreover, we find that the relationship between price stickiness and optimal exchange rate volatility may be non-monotonic.
Intra-national, Intra-continental, and Intra-planetary PPP
This paper builds a model of adjustment toward PPP for a panel of real exchange rates. The model eliminates some inconsistencies in previous models, which implied a model for the real exchange rate of country B relative to country C that was not commensurate with the posited model of the real exchange rate for A relative to B, and A relative to C. The model allows us to handle correlations across exchange rates in a panel in a natural way. We put restrictions on an underlying model which yields a simple covariance matrix that can be easily estimated by GLS methods. We also put restrictions on the underlying model which allow us to easily estimate a panel PPP model in which the speed of adjustment is not the same for all real exchange rates. Our model, applied to the price levels of eight cities in four countries and two continents, does not find evidence in favor of reversion of PPP.
Expenditure Switching and Exchange Rate Policy
Nominal exchange rate changes can lead to 'expenditure switching' when they change relative international prices. A traditional argument for flexible nominal exchange rates posits that when prices are sticky in producers' currencies, nominal exchange rate movements can change relative prices between home and foreign goods. But if prices are fixed ex ante in consumers' currencies, nominal exchange rate flexibility cannot achieve any relative price adjustment. In that case nominal exchange rate fluctuations have the undesirable feature that they lead to deviations from the law of one price. The case for floating exchange rates is weakened if prices are sticky in this way. The empirical literature appears to support the notion that prices are sticky in consumers' currencies. Here, additional support for this conclusion is provided. We then review some new approaches in the theoretical literature that imply an important expenditure-switching role even when consumer prices are sticky in consumers' currencies. Further empirical research is needed to resolve the quantitative importance of the expenditure-switching role for nominal exchange rates.
Equivalence Results for Optimal Pass-through, Optimal Indexing to Exchange Rates, and Optimal Choice of Currency for Export Pricing
"Firms sometimes write price lists or catalogs for their exports, so they set prices for a period of time and do not adjust prices during that interval in response to changes in their environment. The firm sets the price either in its own currency or the importer's currency. This paper draws a simple link between the choice of currency, and the pricing decision of a firm that changes prices in response to all shocks. Specifically, if the latter firm's price has a lower variance in terms of its own currency than the importer's currency, then the firm with a price list will set the price in its own currency (and otherwise it will set price in the foreign currency.) This relationship is established by consideration of the firm with a price list as a special case of a firm that indexes its export price to the exchange rate"--NBER website
The International Diversification Puzzle when Goods Prices Are Sticky
This paper develops a two-country monetary DSGE model in which households choose a portfolio of home and foreign equities, and a forward position in foreign exchange. Some nominal goods prices are sticky. Trade in these assets achieves the same allocations as trade in a complete set of nominal state-contingent claims in our linearized model. When there is a high degree of price stickiness, we show that not much equity diversification is required to replicate the complete-markets equilibrium when agents are able to hedge foreign exchange risk sufficiently. Moreover, temporarily sticky nominal goods prices can have large effects on equity portfolios even when dividend processes are very persistent.
