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Estimating Poland's Potential Output
The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.
The European Central Bank between the Financial Crisis and Populisms
In light of the handover from the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to Christine Lagarde in November 2019, this book provides an in-depth analysis of the events which unfolded since the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2010 up until today. The book focuses on the far-reaching implications of the last decade, shedding light on a wide spectrum of political, economic and financial aspects of the European poly-crises and how monetary policy reacted to these challenges. The book places particular emphasis on the tensions that the supranational central bank was subject to during this period, and on their outcomes in terms of the policies, their legitimacy, and their public reception. As such, this book will be relevant not only to understand the political implications of the past crisis but also, and foremost, in understanding "what is next".
Effectiveness of the ECB Programme of Asset Purchases : where Do We Stand?
In this compilation of notes - requested by the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) for the June 2016 Monetary Dialogue - a number of monetary experts (members of the monetary expert panel) review the ECB programme of asset purchases and make an assessment one year after its first implementation assess the effectiveness make an assessment of.
The Economics of UK-EU Relations
This book brings together contributions from leading scholars around the world on the most relevant and pressing economic themes surrounding the UK–EU relationship. With chapters spanning from the UK’s accession to the bloc to the aftermath of its decision to leave, the book explores key themes in UK economic growth and EU membership, international trade, foreign direct investment, financial markets and migration. Chapters interrogate the history of the relationship, the depth of foreign direct investment, and responses to the financial crisis. Considering both the history and future of UK and EU relations, the book is a relevant and timely volume that gives welcome context to a fast-changing relationship.
Unfinished Business
Chapter 7 WILL REVAMPED FINANCIAL REGULATIONS WORK? -- Upgrading the Basel Rules -- Moving Toward a Euro Area Banking Union -- Taming the US Shadow Banks -- Charting the Post-Crisis Changes in the Financial System -- The Road Ahead -- Chapter 8 MAKING MACROECONOMICS MORE RELEVANT -- The Way We Were -- Expanding the Focus of Macroeconomics -- Strengthening Domestic Policy Cooperation -- A More Inclusive Approach to Macroeconomic Theory -- Toward a More Encompassing View of Macroeconomics -- Chapter 9 WHITHER EMU? -- The Institutional Response to the Euro Area Crisis -- What Makes a Good Currency Union? -- How Fast Is EMU Integrating? -- The Future of EMU -- FINAL THOUGHTS -- NOTES -- REFERENCES -- INDEX
Diminishing Returns
A set of state of the art empirical analyses at the country, regional, and global level that work from a new theoretical framework that analyzes the politics of growth and stagnation. As highlighted by the recent debate on 'secular stagnation,' economic growth has slowed down considerably, and this has given rise to a host of new problems, from financial instability to the collapse of mainstream parties. What happens when growththe main mechanism of capitalist legitimationis harder to come by and less broadly shared? And how should we think about capitalist diversity in the context of global stagnation? In Diminishing Returns, Lucio Baccaro, Mark Blyth, and Jonas Pontusson address these ques...
Asset Securitization and Optimal Retention
This paper builds on recent research by Fender and Mitchell (2009) who show that if financial institutions securitize loans, retaining an interest in the equity tranche does not always induce the securitizer to diligently screen borrowers ex ante. We first determine the conditions under which this scenario becomes binding and further illustrate the implications for capital requirements. We then propose an extension to the existing model and also solve for optimal retention size. This also allows us to capture feedback effects from capital requirements into the maximization problem. Preliminary results show that equity tranche retention continues to best incentivize loan screening.
Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Europe
A state-of-the-art overview of the impacts of structural reforms on growth, employment and inequality in Europe.
Completing a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union
This Element examines efforts to strengthen Economic and Monetary Union in the European Union, especially over the last decade, asking if enough has been done to render it more sustainable and resilient. Drawing on a survey of 111 leading experts on the economics and politics of EMU, this Element reviews the wide-ranging reforms undertaken since the crises of the early 2010s and assesses whether they go far enough. Although it concludes that much has been done to push the euro towards being a more complete currency, it identifies remaining flaws and challenges which EU leaders need to resolve.
Republic of Poland
The Republic of Poland’s 2010 Article IV Consultation shows that Poland is the only European Union country to have escaped a recession in 2009 owing to its limited reliance on exports and well-capitalized and profitable banking system. Like its regional peers, it experienced spillovers from the crisis through both real and financial channels, in particular the latter, as an abrupt slowdown in capital inflows caused a credit crunch and a sharp decline in investment. The banking sector is well buffered, but risks related to foreign-exchange lending should be curbed.
