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The European Central Bank between the Financial Crisis and Populisms
In light of the handover from the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi to Christine Lagarde in November 2019, this book provides an in-depth analysis of the events which unfolded since the euro area sovereign debt crisis in 2010 up until today. The book focuses on the far-reaching implications of the last decade, shedding light on a wide spectrum of political, economic and financial aspects of the European poly-crises and how monetary policy reacted to these challenges. The book places particular emphasis on the tensions that the supranational central bank was subject to during this period, and on their outcomes in terms of the policies, their legitimacy, and their public reception. As such, this book will be relevant not only to understand the political implications of the past crisis but also, and foremost, in understanding "what is next".
Mexico
Economic activity is decelerating, and inflation pressures are receding. The fiscal deficit is expected to register a substantial increase in 2024. Mexico maintains sizable buffers, a strong external position, and effective financial oversight. A range of supply-side reforms will be needed to catalyze lasting higher growth.
Okun in the Euro: New Evidence from Structural Okun Law’s Estimates for the Euro Area, 1979-2019
This paper provides new estimates of Okun’s unemployment-output relationship in euro area countries between 1979 and 2019. We find our structural estimates are stable but substantially lower than the reduced-form estimates that tend to characterise the literature and that the responsiveness of output to unemployment is driven by idiosyncratic factors in both euro core and periphery countries. The results are robust to conditioning on wage bargaining institutional set-ups and, yet, in the euro periphery, we find product market regulation as playing a major role in explaining the significance of Okun’s law estimates across countries.
Deciphering Delphic Guidance: The Bank of England and Brexit
In response to the 2016 referendum on EU Membership and the ensuing uncertainty as to the eventual consequences of Brexit, the Bank of England (BoE) adopted various methods of influencing market rates, including conventional, unconventional monetary policy measures and communications on forward guidance. To investigate the effectiveness of BoE’s communication, we first decompose long-dated yields into a risk neutral and term premium component. Text-based analysis of Monetary Policy Committee minutes is then used to measure the stance of policy, attitudes to QE and Brexit. We show that the Bank’s communication strategy acted to complement the stance of monetary policy, which had responded by lowering Bank rate and expanding QE, and acted to lower the term premium that might otherwise have risen in response to Brexit uncertainty.
The Economics of UK-EU Relations
This book brings together contributions from leading scholars around the world on the most relevant and pressing economic themes surrounding the UK–EU relationship. With chapters spanning from the UK’s accession to the bloc to the aftermath of its decision to leave, the book explores key themes in UK economic growth and EU membership, international trade, foreign direct investment, financial markets and migration. Chapters interrogate the history of the relationship, the depth of foreign direct investment, and responses to the financial crisis. Considering both the history and future of UK and EU relations, the book is a relevant and timely volume that gives welcome context to a fast-changing relationship.
Estimating Poland's Potential Output
The paper develops a methodology based on the production-function approach to estimate potential output of the Polish economy. The paper concentrates on obtaining a robust estimate of the labor input by deriving Poland's natural rate of unemployment. The estimated unemployment gap is found to track well pressures on resource constraints. Moreover, the overall results show that, prior to the recent global financial crisis, Poland's output and employment were both growing above potential. The production function is also used to derive medium-term projections of the output gap. According to our methodology, in the aftermath of the global crisis, Poland is not expected to experience a sizable and persistent negative output gap.
The Effects of Wars
War has been an ever-present feature of human existence. The analysis of wars has tended to focus on either their causes or the military and strategic consequences of a conflict. This book argues that war can have a much wider impact across layers of society that go beyond international boundaries. It presents a heuristic multi-disciplinary framework for analysing the ripple and backwash effects across five connected analytical layers around the world: material; human capabilities; economic; values belief and attitudes; policy and governance; and power. Through this framework, the book introduces a set of empirically rich and theoretically informed studies which examine the first consequences of the war in Ukraine following the invasion of Russia in February 2022. This multi-disciplinary approach shows that the effects of the war were much deeper and sustained. This volume will be of interest to students and scholars of international humanitarian law, security studies, peace and conflict studies, and European history. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Policy Studies.
Structural Reforms and Economic Growth in Europe
In contrast to the USA, Europe has struggled to return to the growth path it was on prior to the financial crisis of 2007-11. Not only has the recovery been slow, it has also been variable with Europe's core countries recovering more quickly than those on the periphery. It is widely believed that the best way to address this slow recovery is through structural reform programmes whereby changes in government policy, regulatory frameworks, investment incentives and labour markets are used to encourage more efficient markets and higher economic growth. This book is the first to provide a critical assessment of these reforms, with a new theoretical framework, new data and new empirical methodologies. It includes several case studies of countries such as Greece, Portugal and France that introduced significant reforms, revealing that such programmes have very divergent, and not always positive, effects on economic growth, employment and income inequality.
Completing a Genuine Economic and Monetary Union
This Element examines efforts to strengthen Economic and Monetary Union in the European Union, especially over the last decade, asking if enough has been done to render it more sustainable and resilient. Drawing on a survey of 111 leading experts on the economics and politics of EMU, this Element reviews the wide-ranging reforms undertaken since the crises of the early 2010s and assesses whether they go far enough. Although it concludes that much has been done to push the euro towards being a more complete currency, it identifies remaining flaws and challenges which EU leaders need to resolve.
