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A lively and informal introduction to the role of uncertainty and probability in people's lives from an everyday perspective From television game shows and gambling techniques to weather forecasting and the financial markets, virtually every aspect of modern life involves situations in which the outcomes are uncertain and of varying qualities. But as noted statistician Dennis Lindley writes in this distinctive text, "We want you to face up to uncertainty, not hide it away under false concepts, but to understand it and, moreover, to use the recent discoveries so that you can act in the face of uncertainty more sensibly than would have been possible without the skill." Accessibly written at an...
This second edition has all the tables required for elementary statistical methods in the social, business and natural sciences.
A study of those statistical ideas that use a probability distribution over parameter space. The first part describes the axiomatic basis in the concept of coherence and the implications of this for sampling theory statistics. The second part discusses the use of Bayesian ideas in many branches of statistics.
Unlock today's statistical controversies and irreproducible results by viewing statistics as probing and controlling errors.
In 1900 many eminent scientists did not believe atoms existed, yet within just a few years the atomic century launched into history with an astonishing string of breakthroughs in physics that began with Albert Einstein and continues to this day. Before this explosive growth into the modern age took place, an all-but-forgotten genius strove for forty years to win acceptance for the atomic theory of matter and an altogether new way of doing physics. Ludwig Boltz-mann battled with philosophers, the scientific establishment, and his own potent demons. His victory led the way to the greatest scientific achievements of the twentieth century. Now acclaimed science writer David Lindley portrays the ...
The 19th edition of this text includes in-depth, high-level coverage of key developments, such as the Law Commission's review of partnership law and the effect on partnership law of the new Insolvency Act.
Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles—assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility—decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those con...
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Incorporating new and updated information, this second edition of THE bestselling text in Bayesian data analysis continues to emphasize practice over theory, describing how to conceptualize, perform, and critique statistical analyses from a Bayesian perspective. Its world-class authors provide guidance on all aspects of Bayesian data analysis and include examples of real statistical analyses, based on their own research, that demonstrate how to solve complicated problems. Changes in the new edition include: Stronger focus on MCMC Revision of the computational advice in Part III New chapters on nonlinear models and decision analysis Several additional applied examples from the authors' recent...