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Relative Direct Democratic Legitimacy
As the European Council convenes today and tomorrow (June 26-27th) to confirm Jean-Claude Juncker as the candidate for President of the European Commission, CEPS Director Daniel Gros shows in this Commentary that the Council should de facto also be considered more a 'mini parliament' than an assembly of states and that the European Parliament cannot claim the monopoly on democratic legitimacy. For a practical application of the principles Gros presents in this commentary, see his column in Project Syndicate, 17 June 2014, in which he rejects the view that Jean-Claude Juncker has a democratic mandate to lead the European Parliament (www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/daniel-gros-rejects-the-view-that-j...
Narratives Matter
While acknowledging that saving Greece was always going to be difficult, Daniel Gros notes in this Commentary that success seemed within reach last year until conflicting narratives became intertwined with hard interests. It remains to be seen whether the third package, acrimoniously negotiated July 12th-13th among the euro-area heads of state, can create the conditions that will allow Greece to grow again.--Publisher description
This Recovery is Different
The misguided belief that "this time is different" led policy-makers to permit the credit boom of the early 2000s to continue for too long, thus preparing the ground for the biggest financial crisis in living memory. But when it comes to the recovery this around, CEPS Director Daniel Gros argues in this Commentary that the belief that this time should not be different might be equally dangerous.--Publisher description.
Britain's Future in Europe
Following the agreement made by Prime Minister David Cameron with the EU on 18-19 February 2016, the day for the referendum for the UK to remain in or leave the EU is set for 23 June 2016. This will be the most important decision taken by the British people in half a century, and whose consequences will live on for another half century. The first edition of this book, published in March 2015, laid the foundations for any objective assessment of the workings of the EU and the UK’s place in it. It was widely acclaimed and rated as “a myth-breaking exercise of the best kind”. This second edition adds a substantial new chapter following Cameron’s agreement with the EU and announcement of...
The Big Easing
"In this CEPS Commentary, Daniel Gros examines the different approaches taken by the Fed and the ECB to bring about economic recovery following the financial crisis and finds that there is a qualitative difference between the two with respect to the risk each is assuming that is more important than the mere size of their balance-sheet."--Publisher description.
A World Out of Balance?
Over the past decade, the global economy has been on a dynamic path that is clearly unsustainable, with ever-increasing current account deficits in the United States, financed by surpluses in emerging market economies. In its latest report, the authoritative CEPS Macroeconomic Policy Group explores the link between the U.S. deficits and the global savings-investment equilibrium. They find that the U.S. deficit is likely to be even larger than officially reported and that policymakers do not seem willing to undertake the necessary policy adjustments to reduce it. Nevertheless, a reduction in the global supply of savings may force an increase in global interest rates and thus a slowdown in U.S. domestic demand--thus initiating a gradual reduction in deficits. The authors argue that a key responsibility of U.S. policymakers is to allow this process to happen, thereby avoiding the risk of a disruptive adjustment later.
Europe's Double Refugee Crisis
"Against the background of the rapidly growing number of asylum-seekers, Daniel Gros argues in this CEPS Commentary that the EU needs to take action on two fronts. First, member countries must urgently boost their capacity to deal with asylum applications, so that they can quickly identify those who truly deserve protection. Second, the EU needs to improve burden-sharing in providing shelter for those who gain asylum. In his view, international law--and basic morality--demands nothing less."--Publisher description.
A European Sanctions Compensation Fund?
Daniel Gros explores in a new CEPS Commentary the feasibility of creating a common fund to provide compensation for the economic costs of sanctions as an integral part of the EU's foreign-policy stance that is now emerging towards Russia, albeit slowly and painfully.--
The Decline and Fall of the Euro?
CEPS Director Daniel Gros explores in this Commentary why the crisis in the eurozone is going from bad to worse, despite the relative strength of the region's fundamentals. He finds that the resources are there, but that Europe needs to summon up the political will to mobilise them.--Publisher description.
Europe's Futile Search for Cheaper Money
Various forms of common 'European bonds', or more precisely eurobonds, have been proposed recently as a way out of the current euro crisis, with proponents stressing the promise of lower borrowing costs. While acknowledging that the proposal is tempting and even quite promising in theory, this Commentary by CEPS Director Daniel Gros finds it seems mostly to be wishful thinking.--Publisher description.
