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Tests of German Resilience
From its early post-war catch-up phase, Germany’s formidable export engine has been its consistent driver of growth. But Germany has almost equally consistently run current account surpluses. Exports have powered the dynamic phases and helped emerge from stagnation. Volatile external demand, in turn, has elevated German GDP growth volatility by advanced countries’ standards, keeping domestic consumption growth at surprisingly low levels. As a consequence, despite the size of its economy and important labor market reforms, Germany’s ability to act as global locomotive has been limited. With increasing competition in its traditional areas of manufacturing, a more domestically-driven growth dynamic, especially in the production and delivery of services, will be good for Germany and for the global economy. Absent such an effort, German growth will remain constrained, and Germany will play only a modest role in spurring growth elsewhere.
When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances
Technical Notes and Manuals are produced by IMF departments to expand the dissemination of their technical assistance advice. These papers present general advice and guidance, drawn in part from unpublished technical assistance reports, to a broader audience. This new series was launched in August 2009.
A Status Update on Fiscal Exit Strategies
With a modest recovery in the global economy underway, and amid rising concerns about the sharp increase in government debt in several countries, debate has increasingly focused on the need to identify and implement fiscal exit strategies. This paper reviews the medium-term plans of 25 countries - the G20 plus six others with large adjustment needs - and finds that most of them have made reasonable progress in defining these strategies. Nevertheless, strategies fall short in some areas, including committing to long-term debt targets, spelling out adjustment measures in detail, and tackling rising health care costs.
Toward A Fiscal Union for the Euro Area
This is on a highly topical issue and addresses a key policy issue for Europe—namely, reinforcing EMU institutional architecture along with the Banking Union. Some proposals have emerged in Europe, and it will be important to put out staff views on this issue. In that context, publication as an SDN is appropriate, given the high profile nature and relevance of the topic—much like the Banking Union paper done a few months ago.
Public Capital and Growth
This paper estimates the impact of public capital on economic growth for forty-eight OECD and non-OECD countries during 1960 - 2001. Using the production function and its extensions, it finds a positive - but concave - elasticity of output with respect to public capital, which is robust to changes in time intervals and varying depreciation rates. Furthermore, in non-OECD countries the growth impact of public capital is higher once longer time intervals are considered.
How Good Are Ex Ante Program Evaluation Techniques? The Case of School Enrollment in PROGRESA
This paper evaluates a microsimulation technique by comparing the simulated outcome of a program with its actual effect. The ex ante evaluation is carried out for a conditional cash transfer program, where poor households were given money if the children attended school. A model of occupational choice is used to simulate the expected impact of the program. The results suggest that the transfer would indeed increase school attendance and do more so among girls than boys. While the simulated effect tends to be larger than the actual effect, the latter lies within bootstrapped confidence intervals of the simulation.
IMF Working Papers
None
Natural Resource Endowments, Governance, and the Domestic RevenueEffort: Evidence from a Panel of Countries
The recent development literature stresses that countries that receive large revenues from natural resource endowments typically raise less revenue from domestic taxation, and that this creates governance problems because the lower domestic tax effort reduces the incentive for the public scrutiny of government. Our results from a panel of 30 hydrocarbon producing countries indicate that the offset between hydrocarbon revenues and revenues from other domestic sources is about 20 percent but that it is invariant to governance indicators.
