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Germany In An Interconnected World Economy
Germany has been a central player in discussions on the future architecture of Europe, and has been called on to play a larger role in supporting global and, especially, European recovery from the financial crisis that triggered the Great Recession. This book focuses on the possible economic role of Germany and shows that the quantitative effects of a German fiscal stimulus would be small on the heavily indebted euro area periphery countries that most need the boost. The book finds that Germany itself faces a growth challenge and that efforts to raise its own growth potential are important for Germany, and that more rapid growth of domestic demand will more powerfully stimulate European economic growth through its expanded demand for imports.
Vanuatu
As Vanuatu was recovering from the multiple natural disasters of 2023, the voluntary liquidation of Air Vanuatu in May 2024 created a major shock with significant effects on growth and business confidence. The negotiations about the future of the airline, along with developments linked to the Economic Citizenship Program (ECP) will have significant economic, social, fiscal, and financial integrity implications. Disruptions to connectivity, tourism, and services will likely affect economic activity in 2024: real GDP growth is expected to grow only by around 1 percent y/y, and the current account deficit will likely widen around 71⁄2 percent of GDP, although there is significant uncertainty to forecasts. Ongoing vulnerabilities and exposure to other risks keep the balance of risks to the downside. Structural vulnerabilities to governance, corruption, and natural disasters remain.
Current Account Imbalances
The discussion of global and regional imbalances has put the spotlight on the possible link between current accounts and structural policies. Drawing on standard empirical current account models, the paper finds that the commonly recommended structural factors cannot explain the widening of imbalances prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis. That said, structural factors do help explain some part of long-standing cross-country differences in the current account levels. In particular, countries with stricter credit market regulation, higher taxes on businesses, lower minimum wage (in particular,in slow growing economies) and generous unemployment benefits tend to have higher current account balances than others.
Review of the Framework for Data Adequacy Assessment for Surveillance
This paper reviews the framework for Data Adequacy Assessment for Surveillance, which is a key element of the policies that govern the requirements for Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes, aimed at ensuring high-quality data for economic analysis and policy advice. The Data Adequacy Assessment requires staff to assess, in the context of Article IV consultations, the adequacy of data provided to the Fund for surveillance purposes, the implications of data inadequacies for surveillance, and the need for corrective measures. In line with the recommendation of the Independent Evaluation Office’s report “Behind the Scenes with Data at the IMF: An IEO Evaluation” and previou...
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau continues to face very challenging domestic and international environments. The terms of trade shocks continue, while tightening of regional financial conditions have been shooting up borrowing costs. Since the political crisis in December 2023, underlying social tension has been high. The next legislative election will be held on November 24, 2024. Despite these challenges, the authorities have maintained the political and economic stability. The cashew export campaign has been progressing smoothly. Growth is on course to recover, but risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside.
Adjustment in Euro Area Deficit Countries
Imbalances within the euro area have been a defining feature of the crisis. This paper provides a critical analysis of the ongoing rebalancing of euro area “deficit economies” (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) that accumulated large current account deficits and external liability positions in the run-up to the crisis. It shows that relative price adjustments have been proceeding gradually. Real effective exchange rates have depreciated by 10-25 percent, driven largely by reductions in unit labor costs due to labor shedding. While exports have typically rebounded, subdued demand accounts for much of the reduction in current account deficits. Hence, the current account balance of the ...
Brunei Darussalam
Brunei faces complex diversification challenges while it continues to contend with a protracted recovery since the pandemic. Real GDP has rebounded moderately, driven mainly by the non-oil and gas (O&G) sector and earlier than expected supply from a new O&G field in Q4 2023. Challenges persisted in downstream and upstream O&G production until H1 and Q3 2023, respectively, weakening fiscal and external positions in 2023.
Republic of Armenia
Economic activity remains strong but moderating as transitory trade, remittances, and capital flows peter out. The outlook is positive, with growth expected to reach 6.0 percent in 2024 and to converge gradually to its long-term rate. Inflation has picked up very slowly and is expected to remain below the CBA’s inflation target in the short term, weighed down by low food and energy inflation, dram appreciation, and the lagged effect of tight monetary policy. Geopolitical tensions, a slowdown in main trading partners, and a possible reversal of capital flows remain the main risks to the outlook.
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste
Timor-Leste has made impressive progress since independence in 2002 but remains a fragile post-conflict nation with pressing development needs. With oil and gas production having recently come to a halt, progress on diversifying the economy and developing the private sector is urgently needed. Fiscal deficits are financed by the country’s considerable Petroleum Fund savings, but regular large withdrawals are expected to lead to its full depletion by the end of the 2030s. A new coalition government—formed following parliamentary elections in May 2023—targets higher growth and achieving fiscal sustainability.
A Status Update on Fiscal Exit Strategies
With a modest recovery in the global economy underway, and amid rising concerns about the sharp increase in government debt in several countries, debate has increasingly focused on the need to identify and implement fiscal exit strategies. This paper reviews the medium-term plans of 25 countries - the G20 plus six others with large adjustment needs - and finds that most of them have made reasonable progress in defining these strategies. Nevertheless, strategies fall short in some areas, including committing to long-term debt targets, spelling out adjustment measures in detail, and tackling rising health care costs.
